Chamber returns with threat of blocking the government’s agenda – 01/28/2024 – Power

Leaders of parties in the center say that President Lula (PT) and his political articulation team will have difficulties in voting in the Chamber of Deputies in 2024 and may see issues of interest to the government blocked when the work of the National Congress resumes.

The dissatisfaction of this bloc — led by the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), who dictates the pace of work in the plenary — has as its main focus the chief minister of the Secretariat of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha (PT).

Members of the center argue that the head of political articulation at Palácio do Planalto failed to comply with several agreements throughout 2023. The main one would be the release of funds from parliamentary amendments negotiated with deputies, in particular resources from the Ministry of Health, a department headed by Nísia Trinity.

A Sheet spoke with congressmen who formally make up the government’s base and maintain, under condition of anonymity, that no proposal that is of exclusive interest to the government will be discussed in the Chamber until there are changes in the political articulation.

Some of these parliamentarians defend Padilha’s dismissal and relate the threat of paralyzing the government’s agenda to this objective. Others indicate that the pressure could cause the minister himself to make more concessions to the center.

Padilha’s allies admit the existence of artillery. Also in a reserved capacity, they say that Lula himself has already been informed about the attack and consider that the government treats the centrão’s movement as an attempt to further expand the group’s power over the Budget.

If the centrão’s spirits are maintained, the president must face an unfavorable climate at the beginning of the Chamber’s work in 2024 — formally scheduled for February 1st, but which, in practice, will only occur in the second half of the month, after Carnival.

The tendency is for last year’s situation to be repeated or even deepened, when the bloc prioritized an agenda aligned with its interests and only approved government measures after several changes and concessions.

The dispute may affect the economic agenda. Some of the main parties in the Chamber have shown themselves to be in tune with the financial market, agribusiness, the business sector and liberal thought, which represents an obstacle on topics seen as conflicting with these interests.

One of these proposals is the recently announced industry stimulus program, called Nova Indústria Brasil, which revives old ideas from PT administrations, with strong state intervention. This agenda depends on Congress, for example, to authorize the BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development) to finance the export of services.

Another issue is the government’s attempt to reverse the payroll tax exemption for 17 sectors of the economy. After approving the measure against Planalto’s guidance last year, Congress is resisting a new government attack.

Members of Padilha’s team argue that, despite the difficulties faced by Lula in 2023, including on the economic agenda, the main items on the government’s agenda were approved in the Chamber with the support of deputies from the center — and many with Lira’s personal commitment.

The fight for influence over the Budget gained a new chapter this week, with Lula’s veto of R$5.6 billion in the forecast for parliamentary amendments that should be paid this year. Even though the remaining amount represents a record R$47.5 billion in this modality, the targets of the cuts caused dissatisfaction in the center.

The five ministries most affected by the veto are controlled by the bloc or are the main supply channels for the political strongholds of these parliamentarians: Cities, Integration, Tourism, Sports and Communications.

The main complaints, however, are directed at the distribution of funds from the Ministry of Health. The center claims that the department made an unequal distribution of resources, which privileged left-wing parliamentarians and parties less aligned with the bloc, such as MDB and PSD.

Nísia is a constant target of complaints from centrão leaders, but almost all parliamentarians point to Padilha as the main problem. Former Minister of Health (2011-2014), he had influence on the creation of the department.

The ministry was the target of the center’s greed during the negotiations that sealed the bloc’s entry into government, in the middle of last year. At the time, Lula ruled out dismissing Nísia to take on a name recommended by the group.

Padilha’s team denies that the Ministry of Health has held back or given unequal treatment to deputies in paying for the amendments.

Lula was elected to govern with a Congress where the left is a minority, occupying around 25% of the total 513 seats. For this reason, the PT member signed, during the transition, an agreement with Lira — until then head of Jair Bolsonaro’s (PL) legislative support.

In addition to supporting Lira’s reelection as president of the Chamber, the government also made room for the centrão in important posts, such as the ministries of Sports (handed over to the PP) and Ports and Airports (given to the Republicans), in addition to the presidency of Caixa Federal Economic (based on an indication from Lira).

The government also executed an unprecedented amount of parliamentary amendments in 2023, which reached R$46.5 billion.

These tools assured Lula, during the first year of government, a loose base on paper, but highly unstable in practice.

Despite commanding ministries, the centrão and other center and right-wing parties that make up the government base —MDB, PSD and União Brasil— have staunch opponents of Lula in their ranks.

This profile made negotiations on amendments and positions more valuable for the stability of the government base, since parliamentarians were looking for benefits that could be distributed to their electoral strongholds.

Another factor of imbalance was the return of command of the influential evangelical caucus in Congress to the hands of its more Bolsonaro wing. The government has long found it difficult to communicate with this segment.