Brazil has a blind industry – 01/16/2024 – Elio Gaspari

Ricardo Bastos, president of the electric car guild, showed, in an interview with reporter Eduardo Sodré, that Brazil could lose its way to a new industrial leap:

“You can choose to close yourself off, hide and postpone a problem that will hit you in a couple of years or a little longer. In 2023, for example, Brazilian exports [de veículos] started to fall. And we can’t blame Argentina, because there are other markets that have grown, like Mexico.”

Bastos defends his guild’s interests, and the numbers suggest he should be listened to. Chinese BYD has surpassed Tesla in the production of electric cars. When Juscelino Kubitschek had himself photographed behind the wheel of the first Volkswagen, China was producing bicycles. Ten years ago, it manufactured cars, but exported little. It is possible that by 2030 the Middle Kingdom will have a third of the global vehicle market.

Meanwhile, Pindorama treats the electric car as if it were a speck bothering the eye. It deals with what appears to be a problem by burdening imports, without an aggressive program to transform its automotive industry. It seems like a new error, but it’s old.

The patron saint of Brazilian industry is the Viscount of Mauá. It went bankrupt. He sailed the Amazon, produced boats and opened railroads. Here and there he blamed the government for his ruin. Brazil deliberately entered the world of railways late. When it arrived, late, in the time of automobiles, it drowned out rail transport. Lightning struck twice in the same place.

The wise Warren Buffett has already taught that when a new technology emerges, businesspeople should not chase after it, as in general, most pioneers end up going bankrupt. Faced with new technology, what we should do is skip the old one. For example: if electric trams appear, donkeys are sold. If automobiles appear, sell your horses.

Looking back, when steam power appeared, the idea was to get rid of enslaved black people, but in the land of palm trees, they waited until 1888. They made a mistake because established interests prevailed. But he wasn’t always wrong.

Visionary presidents created the Aeronautics Technological Institute and Embrapa. Embraer and agribusiness are there to show that it is worth looking forward. It was at Embrapa that the soybean seed that grew in the cerrado was created. Just listen to whoever talks about the new thing.

In the opposite direction, in response to some smart guys from the electronics industry and half a dozen military personnel interested in small mouths, Brazil closed its market to foreign computers. To give you an idea of ​​what was being said, at the time the following was heard: Brazil cannot allow a person’s bank details to circulate on a foreign network.

The electrification of vehicles is here to stay. Those who produce them with old technology defend their interests, but the government has no reason to associate itself with this shield. The price of this option will be the preservation of an industrial park condemned to scrapping. An industry may need protection, but that doesn’t make it more competitive. The automotive industry barons are sitting on 70 years of protection.

Protein exports are growing and vehicle exports are shrinking. Agribusiness knows how to transform itself, while the barony of the current automotive industry knows how to protect itself.

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