Boulos arrives in 2024 with a bonus and greater load than in 2020 – 12/31/2023 – Power

About to face his second consecutive campaign for Mayor of São Paulo, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) is experiencing the paradoxes of starting the race for 2024 with advantages such as a lead in the polls and dealing with the risks of suffering greater scrutiny and becoming the preferred target of rivals.

The pre-candidate and his entourage list a series of bonuses that exist today, considering as assets the support of President Lula (PT), the capital’s inclination to the left in the 2022 election and a greater unity around his name, compared to the dispute against the then mayor Bruno Covas (PSDB).

Ricardo Nunes (MDB), the vice president who took office following the death of the toucan in 2021 and is now aiming for re-election, began the strategy early on of trying to neutralize his main opponent. The mayor has been seeking for months to disqualify the current federal deputy with adjectives such as radical and extremist.

Boulos’s appearance in the second round against Covas was read at the time as a political victory for a leader who was emerging on the left, at a time when Lula was still clinging to the web of Lava Jato and with his future under suspicion. With 40.6% of valid votes, the psolist “lost by winning”.

Four years ago, he appeared with 9% in the first Datafolha survey on the municipal election, in September — the election was postponed from October to November due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

In the institute’s initial survey for 2024, in August of the previous year, Boulos achieved 32% of voting intentions and first place, followed by Nunes, with 24%. The emedebista may have the support of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), which will give a national and polarized tone to the local dispute.

In 2022, the vote in the capital of São Paulo for Lula and the PT candidate for governor, Fernando Haddad, surpassed that of Bolsonaro and his former minister Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) — both, however, won in the interior of the state. Lula’s administration is approved by 45% of residents of the city of São Paulo, according to Datafolha.

In the view of allies, the psolist’s leadership attracted the spotlight and made the slip-ups more evident.

Boulos was criticized, for example, for failing to vehemently repudiate Hamas’ actions against Israel, causing his historic stance of support for the Palestinian people to be used to characterize him as conniving at terrorism. The negative wave included fake news distributed against him on the networks.

The initial position without mention of the terrorist group caused a loss in the team of specialists that assist the pre-candidate in the health area. Doctor Jean Gorinchteyn, former state secretary of João Doria (PSDB), left the team coordination unhappy with the speech.

Under pressure, Boulos made a new statement in the plenary of the Chamber of Deputies in which he condemned the actions of Hamas, without naming the group, and also sought to hold Israel responsible.

Assistants minimized wear and tear, remembering that the repercussion of gestures grows according to the level of knowledge and competitiveness of a candidate.

According to Datafolha, Boulos is known by 80% of the population of the city of São Paulo. He was elected deputy with more than 1 million votes, 48% of which were obtained in the state capital.

Inexperience in the Executive, previously highlighted as a disadvantage, became a point of attention given the greater degree of “expectation of power”. As an antidote, he created a front to discuss the government program with assistants and technicians who had worked in other administrations.

At the same time, the PT, which must nominate the vice-president, is negotiating the return to the party of former mayor Marta Suplicy —who is now secretary of the Nunes administration— to occupy the vacancy, in a strategy similar to that of 2020, when the also former -mayor Luiza Erundina (PSOL) was Boulos’ running partner.

Among the favorable points listed by assistants in relation to 2020 are aspects related to the party situation and the profile of the candidate, who has been trying to convey moderation.

Running without alliances in 2020, the PSOL representative had 17 seconds of TV and radio advertising in the first round, compared to more than 3 minutes for Covas. Now linked to PT and three other subtitles, his expectation is to exceed 3 minutes per block and multiply the insertions throughout the day.

The union with the PT was seen as decisive and marks a fundamental difference. In the previous election, the party launched the candidacy of Jilmar Tatto —who had the worst PT result in the capital’s history, in sixth place (8.6% of valid votes)— and only formally supported the Psolista in the second round.

Boulos said in a recent interview with IstoÉ magazine that “the left had five candidates in that election”, but his performance created “an expectation of unification of the progressive camp” for 2024.

For Josué Rocha, Boulos’ advisor who shares the pre-campaign coordination with the PT’s municipal president, Laércio Ribeiro, the fragmentation increased the difficulties. “We were leaving a lower level of electoral support and needed to grow, which is very different from the scenario today”, says Rocha to Sheet.

The reading of auxiliaries is that this year the deputy arrives as the only candidate from the left, which would demonstrate consensus and unity, despite the pre-candidacy of Tabata Amaral (PSB). Also coming from the government camp, she has presented proposals more towards the center.

Ribeiro eliminates the risk of possible tensions in the PT and the list of allied parties. “Boulos has been a pleasant surprise for the militancy. He is very skillful and articulate. A large part of the unity we have built is due to him, for the way he led the process. We will compete to win”, he states.

Boulos also consolidated control of the PSOL party machine, with the election of his allies to leadership positions at the federal, state and municipal levels. The assessment is that the rapport will give the candidate greater peace of mind at home and will inhibit cases of friendly fire.

The biggest challenges, from the perspective of supporters, are to combat the persistent labels of radical, troublemaker and property invader, based by rivals on the psolist’s 20-year combative trajectory as leader of the MTST (Homeless Workers Movement).

“Naturally, a campaign that is in first place from the start is much more targeted by opponents”, says Rocha, who predicts a tougher and more virulent contest. “This year, we need to be very defensively concerned to respond to these attacks.”

In December, days before announcing support for Nunes, the national president of the PSD, Gilberto Kassab, said at an event that Boulos is the “clear favorite”. Kassab is also secretary of the Tarcísio administration.

“I would say we are excited, but without high heels,” says Rocha.