Bolsonaro reacts to judicial siege amid rumors of his arrest

Between the end of the parliamentary recess and Carnival, national politics was impacted by the perception that the judicial siege on Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and his allies is tightening. The operation Tempus Veritatislaunched by the Federal Police (PF) last Thursday (9) and authorized by Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), to investigate an alleged attempted coup d’état, had as its most prominent target the former president , resulting in him being prevented from leaving the country and creating difficulties for his role as protagonist of the power game.

In the following days, intense speculation circulated in the corridors of Congress, among observers and in society about the developments of the PF operation, especially in relation to the possibility of Bolsonaro’s imminent arrest. While some believe that the STF has already gathered enough elements to request the detention of the former president, many believe in the Court’s members opting for caution, in order to allow more substantial development of the investigation before reaching a verdict to be submitted to the plenary.

But behind-the-scenes comments about the delicacy of the situation have also been recurring, considering the sensitivity surrounding such an extreme measure, especially among supporters of the PL’s main name, who see him as a victim of relentless political persecution against the opposition in in general and the right in particular. Not by chance, in addition to the temporary arrest of the president of the party, Valdemar da Costa Neto, the STF determined the incommunicado among the targets and even among their own lawyers.

In practice, opposition leaders emphasize, including Senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), the strategies being put together by the country’s largest opposition party were undermined by the Judiciary, with support from Planalto. One of the expectations of Planalto’s allies, which was a distancing from the mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), supported by Bolsonaro in the race for re-election, did not materialize. On the contrary, he appealed to the courts and opinion makers to take into account the former president’s presumption of innocence.

Critics see STF excesses in decisions against Bolsonaro

Furthermore, there are fears of challenges regarding the possibility of sentencing a defendant without a privileged jurisdiction, Bolsonaro’s current condition, which some interpret as a reflection of the current stage of judicial activism. This repeated advance against defense guarantees is already receiving criticism, including from the Brazilian Bar Association (OAB), which began to complain about excesses against defendants in cases related to the acts of vandalism on January 8th. Retired STF minister Marco Aurélio Mello criticized the PF operation that targeted Bolsonaro, considering Alexandre de Moraes’ decision as “extreme”. In an interview with the magazine Lookregretted that the operation had “tarnished” the profile of “a citizen”.

A Tempus Veritatis, based on the testimony of Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, the ex-president’s former aide-de-camp, has a large proportion of those investigated among members of the Armed Forces, another aspect also considered unprecedented and politically sensitive by many analysts. However, opposition parliamentarians highlight that the main background is deliberate interference in party plans for municipal elections, especially the PL. The STF determined that the targets of the operation were incommunicado, including their lawyers, which, in practice, dismantled the strategies of the largest opposition party, with the support of Planalto.

The president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PL), when asked by the opposition to react to the invasions of the Judiciary in the offices of PL deputies and to comment on the Tempus Veritatis, dodged, saying that Congress cannot do anything about the actions of the PF and the STF. He rejected, however, the inclusion of Bolsonaro’s party as an object of investigation, defending the need for “strong parties for democracy”. The president of Congress, senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), like Lira, has preferred silence in the face of the opposition’s demands regarding the new stage of judicial activism. To make opposition demands even more difficult, the effective return of post-Carnival activities should only occur next week.

Out of power, Bolsonaro is the target of several attacks by the courts

Since leaving the Presidency, Bolsonaro has faced several investigations, including the one that made him ineligible at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), involving a meeting with ambassadors to evaluate the electronic voting system. In addition to the alleged cases of embezzlement of jewelry, falsification of vaccination cards and rigging of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin), among others, the investigation into an alleged attempted coup d’état is considered the most serious, the one that could lead to arrest .

Bolsonaro and his allies argue, however, that the PF’s operations aim to exclude him from the 2024 and 2026 electoral scenario. To defend himself, Bolsonaro called a public event on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo, for the afternoon of February 25, last Sunday of the month. In addition to wanting to refute “all the accusations of recent months”, he asked for the presence of thousands of supporters to provide a “defense of the Democratic Rule of Law” and “a photo”, in other words, a demonstration of strong popular support. In this regard, he highlighted that supporters should not carry posters and banners against “anyone”.

The warning could be a prevention against the recurring accusations that Bolsonaro promotes “incitement” against institutions. There was no shortage of critics who saw the summons as a way for him to take refuge from imminent arrest. As a precaution, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro canceled the tour she was going to take this week in the United States, due to the latest events.

Evidence of a coup plot seen by the PF and STF are contested

During the PF operation, agents found in Bolsonaro’s office, in Brasília, what would be the draft of a speech announcing a state of siege decree in the country. However, this document was already present in another investigation, called the “coup draft”, and was requested by him from the lawyers with access to the files to be printed and read. As for the video of the July 2023 ministerial meeting, where the coup plot was being discussed, the reception among Bolsonaro’s followers was positive, interpreting it as concern about the country’s direction after the elections.

The PF, in turn, insists on a “coup dynamic” in the meeting’s speeches, in the exchange of messages and in other signs. Although there is consistent evidence, analysts believe that Bolsonaro’s arrest later this year could turn him into a martyr, being a measure to be considered only in the event of a judicial conviction. But the emergence of more data and allegations of obstruction of justice could precipitate a decision to deprive him of his liberty.