Balance of six months of Lula’s government reveals mistakes and frustrations

The first six months of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) third presidential term were marked by controversial actions that generated below-expected results that surprised even opponents. The combination of unfulfilled promises to voters and supporters, combined with the persistence of strategic errors in the implementation of the government’s plan, has prevented significant advances in the economy, parliamentary relations and foreign policy.

Experts consulted by People’s Gazette assess that Lula’s persistent and aggressive electoral discourse has negatively affected the political and social environment, while the emphasis given by the president to numerous and costly international trips facilitates criticism. For the sources, the management of the semester can be reduced to the binomial “revenge and tourism”.

“Revenge” for attitudes that the president has been taking, such as systematic criticism of former president Jair Bolsonaro’s government, or statements that showed great rancor – such as the episode in which Lula insinuated that former judge and current senator Sérgio Moro (União- PR), who condemned him, would have “armed” the disclosure, by the Federal Police (PF), of a criminal plan to kill him. The PF, however, brought enough evidence that the First Command of the Capital (PCC) set up an attack against him.

In political circles, criticism of constant international travel points to the fact that they generated a lot of controversy, spending resources and did not bring concrete results.

Still on foreign policy, the biggest work announced by the government could be a gas pipeline in Argentina, financed by the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES). In China, the government went so far as to say that deals of around US$ 50 billion had been closed, but no further information about them was later disclosed.

Throughout the semester, the PT administration maintained its willingness to link the external agenda to environmental issues, even facing increasing pressure from the opposition endorsed by the ruralist caucus and the lack of willingness on the part of Western powers to support Brazil after it began to support Russia in the Ukraine war.

The Brazilian’s appreciation for totalitarian governments, such as those of Vladimir Putin (Russia), Nicolas Maduro (Venezuela) and Xi Jinping (China) has closed the doors of Brazil’s traditional partners in the West.

Legislative with more bargaining power surprised Lula

The agency’s political risk report BCW Brazil indicates that the government was also affected by the construction of a new model of coalition presidentialism, with legislative advances on federal budget funds. Even after the Federal Supreme Court (STF) extinguished the so-called “secret budget”, the indication of funds by parliamentarians by bureaucratic means continues. “At the same time, due to the dispersion of this system, there is no inspection at the end, where resources are applied, favoring corruption and the loss of public resources”, he stresses.

In the economic field, the study of BCW Brazil, which is coordinated by Professor Eduardo Galvão, assesses that inflation, the exchange rate, unemployment and market confidence, despite pointing to a negative scenario, favored Lula in the short term, especially in the second quarter. The indicators gave the government the chance to advance the economic agenda, especially in relation to monetary policy, the fiscal framework and tax reform.

“However, these advances still depend on the implementation of the macrostructural reforms promised in the campaign”, observe the researchers.

As for political leadership, the political scientist describes a beginning of government dominated by conflicts and disagreements. “Lula and his organizers took a while to realize that the political system has changed a lot since 2003, when he came to power. Congress has grown stronger and is less and less dependent on the goodwill of the Executive,” he said.

This reality required a great deal of convincing and articulation to move forward with priority guidelines, which in the past was facilitated only with the release of parliamentary amendments or positions in the first echelon.

Incongruity of government actions generated turmoil in the economy

Political scientist Ismael Almeida assesses that the government ends the first semester marked by dubiousness in the economy, placing important agendas such as the fiscal framework and renewing assets of PT administrations such as the Minha Casa, Minha Vida and Bolsa Família programs.

But, on the other hand, none of this is congruent with the discourse of Lula’s administration, especially in the speeches of the president himself, which do not help to establish a favorable climate for the recovery of the economy. He cites as an example Lula’s aggressive speeches against agribusiness, a sector that for decades has ensured positive results in the trade balance and against the Central Bank, which Lula tries to intimidate in order to force a drop in interest rates. “Such inconsistency ends up nullifying the positive impact that some measures could have had, as it generates insecurity about the real intentions of the Planalto”, he said.

Almeida also points out as an aggravating factor in this scenario the lack of any firm signal regarding the control of public spending. “The essence of the new fiscal framework, by the way, is not austerity, but the guarantee of growth in expenses even in a scenario of low collection”, he underlined.

Finally, the priority that Lula gave to the international agenda also revealed his lack of concern with domestic problems. In those six months, Lula spent a sixth of them out of the country – 32 days of absence. According to the government, the purpose of the trips is to alleviate “diplomatic tensions” caused by the previous government. But Lula’s diplomacy has been even worse.

“Lula’s insistence on trying to destroy his predecessor’s image shows that there doesn’t seem to be a plan of his own, other than to undo what was done by previous governments, even if they have positive results for the country”, pointed out Almeida.

For political analyst José Amorim, the government “skidded” in the first six months by completely ignoring the national scene. “The impression is that Lula thought he was governing like in previous terms. In addition, the so-called broad front had communication problems, with ministers contradicting each other,” he said. He points out that, even appointing deputy Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) as minister to improve dialogue with the market, the PT’s speeches based on “us against them”, which remain after the election period, are of no help.

To complete the effects of the spirit of revenge, there was a delay in releasing money to parliamentarians. In other words, Lula took too long to react to moves by the Legislature with the transfer of funds that had already been agreed upon. This resulted in defeats in important votes for the Executive and the installation of CPIs that worsened the government’s image.