Automakers avoid talking about the end of combustion engines – 02/18/2024 – Market

When will cars equipped with combustion engines stop being produced? A Sheet asked this question to representatives from different automakers in the midst of the electric car winter. Queues for recharging amid snowfall in the USA and the end of tax incentives in Germany raised doubts about the future.

At the turn of the decade, forecasts indicated dates between 2030 and 2040 in the European and North American markets. These were ambitious plans, developed in response to stricter environmental legislation and still under the impact of dieselgate, fraud in emissions tests that shook the Volkswagen group in 2015.

The goals were maintained even during the Covid-19 pandemic, which disrupted the entire industry. Today, however, there are few companies that risk citing a year for the sunset of combustion engines. On the other hand, new technologies — and billions of dollars invested in production lines around the world — indicate that the energy transition will not be interrupted.

“We would like to have 50% of our volume already focused on electrification in 2030, but this depends on whether market conditions allow it, on how this will develop in terms of infrastructure”, says Carlos Garcia, CEO of Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans Brazil.

The German automaker is one of those that most believes in a future dominated by 100% electric cars, to the point of turning its entire development area towards these vehicles. The main focus is on a new generation of engines, much smaller and more efficient than those available today.

Developed by Yasa, an English subsidiary of Mercedes, these axial engines are much lighter. For example: if a radial assembly used today weighs 300 kg, the new technology will offer the same power weighing 100 kg. The weight loss process benefits autonomy: lighter cars need less energy to go further.

Associated with solid-state batteries, which promise to double the range and reduce recharging time, this technology could bring the practicality of combustion cars to the electric world. But until these vehicles hit the streets in large numbers—which should happen in the next decade—a lot of gasoline will be burned.

“Our combustion vehicles are the ones that provide profitability so that we can also invest in the future, this is part of the process”, says Garcia.

One of the lines that helps fund the energy transition is the new generation of the Mercedes E 300 sedan, which arrives in Brazil for R$639,900. It has a 2.0 turbo engine (258 hp) combined with a “super alternator”, which helps save gasoline when starting and restarting. Its electric pair is the EQE, which costs R$707,900.

While the Germans intend to jump directly from combustion to electricity, Volvo opted for the transition phase. Your plug-in hybrid cars can be recharged at the socket, but this system has an expiration date.

“At the beginning of this year we already ended the production of diesel engines, a step that we consider important for the brand and the market as a whole”, says the automaker, in a statement. “In addition, Volvo has invested in a new factory in Kosice [Eslováquia] which must exclusively produce electric vehicles from 2026.

The Swedish automaker – which is part of the Chinese group Geely – was the only one to set a date for the end of its combustion engines. “Volvo Cars is committed to becoming 100% electric by 2030, when all of the brand’s plants must dedicate themselves exclusively to the production of electric vehicles.”

The intentions apply to passenger cars. The heavy vehicle divisions of Mercedes and Volvo, which are companies separate from those that produce light vehicles, will continue with diesel trucks for an indefinite period of time.

João Irineu Medeiros, vice president of regulatory affairs for the Stellantis group in South America, says that conditions are more complicated for trucks and buses. “A much greater amount of energy is needed to transport loads and people, there are heavy loads and long distances, which makes recharging a critical process, for example.”

In relation to passenger cars, Medeiros does not mention a date for the end of combustion. He believes that it will not be “this or that”, but rather “this and that”. Full electrification should occur, but not as quickly as previous predictions.

“The automotive industry is built on scale. Let’s take the example of Norway, which sells 210 thousand cars per year and has a circulating fleet of 3 million vehicles. Today, 80% of these sales are electric models, and 20% of the fleet circulating supply is already 100% electric. It was a country that prepared itself for electrification because it was extremely dependent on oil, but it took two decades to plan”, says Medeiros.

The executive believes that flex hybrid models will be a solution in different hybrid options. 100% electric cars will also be part of the brands’ strategy and will be produced nationally, but there will be a mix of different technologies.

“We have a huge challenge which is decarbonization, there are 50 gigatons of CO2 that accumulate in the atmosphere annually. We collect carbon from the earth, with oil, and throw it back into the atmosphere. With the combustion engine using ethanol, the CO2 released is captured by the sugar cane plantation.”

However, burning alcohol in tanks also emits pollutants, such as carbon monoxide. Medeiros states that the evolution of control systems installed in cars mitigates this problem.

“Onboard technology reduces a car’s emissions by more than 95%, and the program [de controle de emissões] has been evolving since the 1980s, reducing the rate of emissions”, says the executive. “The next phase in Brazil comes into force in 2025 and will bring together the best of American and European legislation.”

This new legislation, which is equivalent to the eighth phase of Proconve (Vehicle Emissions Control Program), will be divided into three stages, always considering the average emissions of car manufacturers. It is for this reason that all companies will have to electrify a large part of their models.

General Motors, which guaranteed that its car lines would be 100% electric from 2035, has already revised its expectations. In addition to developing flex hybrid cars for Brazil – which are included in the R$7 billion investment announced in January – the company plans to return with plug-in hybrids in the North American market.

It is a transitional movement, but it is no longer possible to say whether the global electrification goal will be maintained by the owner of the Chevrolet brand. The automaker’s press office states that there are no new announcements on this topic.

For João Irineu Medeiros, from Stellantis, the rules adopted by different markets cannot be as burdensome as those in force in the European Union. “They dump everything on the automotive industry, it’s not something balanced either economically or socially.”

Concerns involve the survival of the industry. The Chinese continue with an aggressive commercial strategy in electrification, and Western automakers are still unable to compete on price. If on the one hand they invest billions in new factories, on the other they fear losses that will result in closures and layoffs.

Hence the need to make products profitable and meet the interests of resellers. If there are still problems with the infrastructure and autonomy of electric cars in large markets, combustion engines, hybrids or not, should continue as long as legislation allows.