At the current rate, CO2 emissions will fall by just 2% by 2030 – 11/14/2023 – Environment

Countries’ current climate commitments will result in a reduction of just 2% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019.

Despite indicating that the peak in global emissions should occur later this decade, the result is far from the 43% drop recommended by scientists, warned the UN (United Nations) in a report released this Tuesday (14).

The new report is the annual synthesis of countries’ latest emissions reduction commitments, which are known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). These goals were assumed by the 195 signatories of the Paris Agreement in 2015.

In comparison with the rates recorded in 2010, projections for 2030 indicate an increase of 9% in global emissions.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres says the report shows that slow progress on climate ambitions is not enough and that deadlines for net-zero emissions must be accelerated: by 2040 for developed nations and by 2050 for emerging ones.

“Countries must significantly increase renewable energy capacity, phase out coal — by 2030 in OECD countries and by 2040 elsewhere in the world — and phase out all fossil fuels in accordance with [a meta de] net zero global emissions by 2050,” said Guterres.

Simon Stiell, director of the UN climate change body, commented that the survey shows that the international community is taking “small steps to avoid the climate crisis” and that it needs to “take giant steps at COP28”.

The 28th UN climate change conference, which takes place from November 30 to December 12 in Dubai, “should be a decisive turning point”, said Stiell.

The UAE summit must establish the first official assessment (called “global stocktake”) and the first corrections to the NDCs.

At COP26, which took place in 2021, in Scotland, the signatories of the agreement committed to reviewing the NDC annually, and not every five years, but few countries followed the agreement.

Taking into account the 20 new revised NDCs, which were presented by the end of September, the report shows that although emissions will not increase after 2030 compared to 2019 levels, they still do not show the rapid downward trend that science considers necessary to curb the worst effects of the climate crisis.

The Paris Agreement sets the goal of keeping global warming “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.” The industrial period is considered the beginning of the massive exploitation of fossil fuels, the main responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.

To reach 1.5°C, however, global emissions must be reduced by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, according to the most recent report by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), linked to the UN and prepared by experts from around the world.