Against isolation, Bolsonaro nods to the “root” base by funding a return to Brazil

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) ended his period of silence after the defeat in the elections and resumed his political agenda in the United States. Since February 1, he has participated in three events and given three interviews during his stay in Orlando, Florida, where he even signaled that he will return to Brazil in March to lead the opposition to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

Before returning to Brazil, Bolsonaro is expected to participate in the Annual Conference on Conservative Political Action (CPAC), which will be held in Washington, capital of the United States, in March. The invitation to the former president was made on Thursday (16). The event will also be attended by former US President Donald Trump.

The resumption of political activity and his personal communication with voters is a response that Bolsonaro gives to his more “rooted” electoral base and also to the political milieu. The former president is aware of the interest of a number of directors and leaders of right-wing and center-right parties — including the PL itself — in isolating him from the process of reorganizing the conservative movement.

The objective is to keep militancy engaged and, consequently, its political capital, and to establish a position in the Brazilian political scene. Especially in the midst of the movement led by PP and União Brasil to unite in a party federation. Bolsonaro and his political and family circle understand that there is no right wing without his involvement, but they thought it prudent to take a stand and dialogue with the people to demonstrate strength.

Despite Bolsonaro’s own signs and statements that he will return to Brazil in March, his return is still unknown. Former ministers of the former president and interlocutors of the family do not set their sights on returning to People’s Gazette. Three sources close to Bolsonaro and his family heard in a confidential condition understand that the speech is more a signal than something concrete.

Allied says returning to Brazil is not a political bluff

Bolsonaro’s ally, federal deputy Evair Vieira de Melo (PP-ES) spoke to the former president of his office on Wednesday (15) and denies that the deadline is a bluff. “March is the radar, he is ready at any moment, he is preparing things, but it will take until at least Carnival [para retornar]. He’s talking to some people, outlining a strategy and organizing his return”, she says.

According to an interlocutor of the former president who requested anonymity, Bolsonaro has to say that he will return so that a false narrative does not arise that he is fleeing. However, in the opinion of another source, the possibility of returning in March – announced by the former president to the American newspaper Wall Street Journal this week – could be a bluff. The former chief executive filed a tourist visa application, which, if granted, would allow him to stay in the United States for another six months.

Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro defends that her husband remains in the US. “I think he needs more rest, to stay there. I’ve been with him for 15 years and I’ve never seen him rest,” she told the newspaper. Brazilian mail on Thursday (16).

Critics have been saying he no longer leads the right in Brazil. But a source close to Bolsonaro told the report that he did not believe in the emergence of a candidate with political capital, support and popular appeal in the next ten years.

What’s behind the organization and analysis of Bolsonaro’s return

In January, Bolsonaro said in an interview with the press and the national president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, that he would return by the end of the month, but postponed his plans. Allies from the former president’s personal circle and his family have affirmed since that month to the People’s Gazette that he and his family are not convinced that there are conditions for a safe return.

There is still a fear of Bolsonaro and his family that he could be arrested if he returns to Brazil. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) took on the responsibility of preparing a team of lawyers to provide legal security in defending the father in case of new accusations or investigations. However, the fear of “political persecution” orchestrated by politicians from Lula’s base with the consent of the Judiciary persists.

A family ally told the report, also requesting anonymity, that while there is no consistent change in the political environment, Bolsonaro should not return, at the risk of being “martyred”. An indication of this would be that his wife Michelle returned and he did not accompany her.

The fear of being accused of allegedly committing the crime of genocide against Yanomami indigenous people and also of alleged responsibility for the acts of vandalism on January 8, in Brasilia, remains on the radar of Bolsonaro and his family. In an interview with the newspaper Wall Street Journal on Monday (14), he pondered the risk of arrest. “An arrest warrant can appear out of nowhere,” he said.

Deputy Evair de Melo observed a lot of “serenity” in Bolsonaro in the video call conversation he had with the former president in his office. “The president is serene, I think he really needed this time and it was important for him. He is ready to participate and make the debate [de oposição]. As soon as Carnival is over, it starts”, he comments. In addition to him, federal deputy Hélio Lopes (PL-RJ) also participated in the conversation.

What to expect from the former president’s return and role in the opposition

Deputy Evair de Melo claims that Bolsonaro has not yet decided whether to “arrive in silence” or with an active political agenda when he returns to Brazil. “How he’s going to get here and what is the strategy to get there, he hasn’t defined it yet”, he comments. The ally believes that the former president will have an important role to play in the opposition and in the reorganization of the right.

“Wherever he is, he will gather thousands, I’m sure of that. He not only organizes, he mobilizes the right. His mobilization capacity is even greater than the organization. The right is so big that organizing it is not something simple, but he will be able to mobilize with the impressive capacity he has”, comments Melo, who is quoted to assume the leadership of the minority in the Chamber, a space of opposition to the current government.

The expectation of the president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, is that Bolsonaro will return to lead the right in Brazil and also the PL. Leaders close to the party leadership claim that the objective is for the former president to travel the country with a focus on municipal elections, especially cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants. “We have to build a strong political base, then we prepare for the 2026 elections”, maintains one leader.

The challenge of regrouping the right even in the PL is one of the challenges foreseen for Bolsonaro. One of the sources close to the former president heard by the report highlighted the division of the right by divergent interests of a specific or structural nature. Still, she says she believes the right will be unified in the 2026 election.

Bolsonaro will remain the leader of the conservative right, says Bia Kicis

Deputy Bia Kicis (PL-DF), president of the party’s district directory, reinforces the importance of the return of the former chief executive. “Bolsonaro’s return is highly anticipated, and the expectation, yes, is that he will continue as a leader of the right and organizing this conservative right, because he is a person who inspires conservatives and the right in Brazil. And he has enough experience to help guide the opposition process”, he says.

Deputy Silvia Waiãpi (PL-AP) says Bolsonaro can add value and “round up” voters in the right-wing reorganization process, including indigenous people. “He has always attracted crowds, including a portion of the indigenous population that produces for his country. He is loved by indigenous people because he gave the indigenous people the opportunity to develop economically in their own lands”, she highlighted.

Closer allies maintain that Bolsonaro remains the strongest name in the opposition and the only one with popular appeal among the masses. For them, the former president will be the candidate if he maintains political rights. In the Senate, allies maintain that his candidacy in 2026, as Senator Flávio Bolsonaro suggested, is not a “trial balloon” and treat him as the main opposition name to Lula for maintaining political capital.