With Lula’s approval, Padilha provokes anger and sour relations with Congress

Shielded by President Lula, the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, could make the already complicated relationship with the National Congress, especially with the Chamber of Deputies, even more difficult, after making insinuations about a possible weakening of Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and provoke the wrath of the President of the House, at a time when the government is engaged in coordination with parliamentarians to maintain the vetoes of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

Last week, Lira abandoned her moderate tone and said that Padilha is her “personal enemy”, in addition to calling him “incompetent”. Lira accused the minister of having leaked statements to the press that he was weakened in his position as president of the Chamber, after the vote that decided to maintain the arrest of Chiquinho Brazão (no party-RJ), accused of being one of the masterminds behind the murder of the councilor Marielle Franco. Before the vote, there was an agreement among parliamentarians to vote for the overthrow of the prison, in a reaction to orders from the Federal Supreme Court (STF) targeting parliamentarians. The arrest was upheld, but with a margin of just 20 votes.

“This news (…) was leaked by the government and, basically, by Minister Padilha, who is a disaffected person, as well as being personally incompetent”, stated the president of the Chamber on Thursday (11), when asked if he had was “weakened” by the maintenance of Brazão’s prison.

Soon after the comment, Padilha published a video in which Lula made positive comments about the minister. The President of the Republic also said that, “only out of stubbornness”, Padilha will remain in office. Behind the scenes in Brasília, information is circulating that Lira had already “asked for Padilha’s head”, which led to Lula handing over command of the negotiations with the President of the Chamber to the Minister of the Civil House, Rui Costa, albeit informally. .

The Workers’ Party also released a statement in solidarity with Alexandre Padilha, in which it reiterated that “minister Padilha’s competence and capacity are undeniable, both in the current government and in the countless opportunities in which he served the interests of the Brazilian people.”

Since the beginning of Lula 3’s mandate, the government has had difficulties in negotiating with parliamentarians and the climate became worse after the president published, during the legislative recess at the beginning of the year, a Provisional Measure (MP) that limited payroll tax relief. payment for 17 sectors of the economy – contrary to what Congress had approved in 2023. Given the lack of political articulation, the government had to go back and propose a bill to discuss the issue.

Another point of friction was the cut of more than R$5 billion in parliamentary committee amendments. The government does not want to include this amount in the budget and is trying to negotiate with deputies and senators so that the veto that Lula imposed on these amendments is not overturned by Congress. The expectation is that the first joint session of the Chamber and Senate this year, to discuss presidential vetoes, will take place this Thursday (18).

Added to the disagreements between the Executive and Legislative branches is Lula’s partial veto of the bill that restricted prisoners’ “outings”, approved by Congress. With the government’s decision, prisoners in the semi-open regime can leave to visit their families “for humanitarian reasons”. Opposition parliamentarians promise to overturn Lula’s veto.

Government loses in the fight with Lira, analysts guarantee

Among political analysts, there is an understanding that, in this fight between Lira and Padilha, the one who loses the most is the government, which needs the coordination of the President of the Chamber to advance the government’s agenda in Congress. “The government needs Arthur Lira much more than Arthur Lira needs the government”, summarizes the professor of Political Sciences at Ibmec in Belo Horizonte, Adriano Cerqueira, adding that Lira appears to be more independent from the government than the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG).

He also points out that Lira’s statements against Padilha could contribute to making the minister’s stay in office more unsustainable, with a greater political cost for the government, which could be forced to replace the political coordinator. The municipal elections, Cerqueira assesses, are likely to intensify tempers even further, due to the dispute over the release of health funds and the possible intention of the current president of the Chamber of Deputies to run for government of Alagoas.

Political scientist Elton Gomes, from the Federal University of Piauí, is also emphatic in stating that Padilha’s expectation of power is low. He recalls that the minister has been questioned within his own political group and has suffered from the difficulty of delivering what he promises in the president’s system of bargains and exchanges.

“Even on matters in which the government has affinity with the majority of congressmen, the negotiating price has been high, the bill that the government has paid has been very high, so Padilha is being questioned within the Workers’ Party itself, seen as someone which has not been able to deliver what the government needs to deliver to guarantee parliamentary support”, pointed out the analyst.

Elton Gomes also stated that the president of the Chamber, by publicly opening his differences with the Minister of Institutional Relations, has a clear plan to force the government to change Alexandre Padilha. “If Lira did this, he did so knowing that the minister is already weakened in a struggle within the PT itself and that he, therefore, seeks to create conditions for another figure to be appointed to this role”, he concluded.

Tension between Lira and Padilha has been going on since the beginning of the Lula government

The tension between Arthur Lira and Alexandre Padilha has been going on since the beginning of Lula’s third term as head of the Planalto Palace, and became clear in May last year, when the government almost had to face defeat in the Chamber with the end of the validity of the provisional measure (MP) that reformulated the Esplanada dos Ministérios. At the time, Lira said that there was a lack of political articulation with Congress, in a direct criticism of the work of the Minister of Institutional Relations.

And with each important government vote, which depended on negotiations with Congress, the animosity increased, although both tried to hide it. After the episode of vetoes on amendments and tax relief, at the end of last year, Lira made a forceful speech at the beginning of the Chamber’s legislative year, demanding that the government honor the agreements reached with Parliament, in a clear message to Planalto and the Padilha, who was responsible for the articulation.

Lira was referring mainly to the cut in parliamentary amendments, a fundamental instrument that parliamentarians rely on to meet their electoral bases. The criticism gained even greater weight because 2024 is a year of municipal elections.

In the reopening session of the legislative year, in February, Padilha, upon arriving at the Chamber of Deputies, stated that institutional relations between the powers were well, and that divergences were normal, a speech reinforced by Rui Costa and government allies.

The health commanded by Padilha and Centrão de Lira’s desire for the portfolio

One of the main points of contention between Padilha and Lira, in the assessment of some parliamentarians, however, is the command of the Ministry of Health, coveted by Centrão, led by Lira, and which has a strong influence from Alexandre Padilha, with several appointments for positions in the folder. Lula has resisted these advances, not only due to the ministry’s political relevance, but also due to the large volume of resources that the department manages.

After the approval of the tax reform – when the central parties (PP, Union and Republicans) paid the bill for voting on the matter after decades of unsuccessful processing – the replacement of the Minister of Health was the first to be raised, but Lula managed to hold on Nísia Trindade in the portfolio, offering other ministries – Sports, Tourism and Ports and Airports, in addition to Caixa Econômica Federal – to the subtitles.

The president of the Chamber even led a movement of parliamentarians, in February this year, asking the Ministry of Health for clarification on the allocation of the department’s resources, amid reports of alleged favoritism to government allies.

Also weighing against Nísia is the explosion of dengue cases in the country, with a record number of cases and deaths from the disease, in addition to the delay in adopting preventive measures to combat an epidemic in different parts of the country. In the meantime, the minister also suffered wear and tear after the release of a technical note, later overturned by the ministry itself, which allows the termination of pregnancy at any time during pregnancy in cases of rape, anencephaly and risk of death for the mother.

In the opinion of deputy José Nelto (PP-GO), health management is “terrible” and the maintenance of minister Nísia, as well as Padilha’s continued role as negotiator with Congress, is typical of the Workers’ Party, of “no abandon your companions.” The deputy completed using an old humorous program catchphrase that said “go home, Padilha”.

Institutional relations and Lira’s succession in the Chamber

Although it would be ideal to count on Planalto’s support for its candidate for succession as president of the Chamber, in February 2025, it is unlikely that Arthur Lira’s candidate will be harmed by the war with Padilha, since the center and right-wing parties have a majority at home.

With ten months to go before the change of command of the Chamber, there is still no official candidacy, but behind the scenes it is known that the leader of União Brasil, Elmar Nascimento, would be Arthur Lira’s favorite [mas teria perdido pontos com o Planalto por votar contra a manutenção da prisão do deputado acusado de mandar matar Marielle]while the president of the Republicans, Marcos Pereira, also aims for the presidency.