Will Palmeiras be champion? What scenarios give the title Sunday
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The victory of Palm trees over América-MG on Wednesday (29), added to the stumbles of Flamengo It is Botafogo, allow the São Paulo team to become champions in the 37th round of the Brazilian Championship, to be played over the weekend. Abel Ferreira’s team is three points clear at the top, with two games to go. If Fluminense wins, a combination of results already guarantees the mathematical title – the 12th Brazilian in its history.
The possibility of the Alviverde team becoming champion depends, necessarily, on stumbles by Flamengo, Atlético-MG and Botafogo in the round. As a result, Palmeiras could only celebrate, in fact, from 8:30 pm (Brasília time). The Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) defined that only the games in the 38th round will be simultaneous. As a result, Atlético-MG enters the field on Saturday, Palmeiras and Flamengo at 4pm on Sunday, while Botafogo, of those competing for the title, only plays at 6:30pm.
Thus, Palmeiras’ math is simple: win and hope that their opponents, necessarily, do not win their respective games (Flamengo x Cuiabá, Atlético-MG x São Paulo and Botafogo x Cruzeiro). This is the simplest scenario, but it is not the only one: there is a possibility that Palmeiras will win the Brasileirão even if they draw with Fluminense.
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To do so, the other title contenders would again need to lose their games, but with an aggravating factor: Grêmio and Red Bull Bragantino cannot win their next two games. The teams still play this Thursday for the 36th round and, if they win, they reach 62 points, which allows them to mathematically reach Palmeiras. A new triumph over the weekend – including a draw for Abel’s team – leaves the teams two points behind the lead. Bragantino and Grêmio face Goiás and Fortaleza this Thursday and Coritiba and Vasco, on Sunday.
If Fluminense wins, but their rivals don’t stumble, Palmeiras will remain in the lead, with a three-point advantage. They won’t be able to celebrate the title on Sunday, but they will have one hand on the cup because of the goal difference. Before the 37th round, Palmeiras has a seven advantage over Botafogo, eight over Atlético-MG and 16 over Flamengo.
With the triumph of all four teams in the penultimate round, only a defeat for Palmeiras against Cruzeiro and defeats by Botafogo, Atlético-MG or Flamengo would take the title from the hands of the Alviverde team. According to the Department of Mathematics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Abel’s team jumped from 55.3% to 85.9% in its chances of being champion.
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