Why Bolsonaro’s return to Brazil is still uncertain

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is expected to remain in the United States at least until February. Some allies and interlocutors close to his family even believe that it is likely that he will remain in Orlando, Florida, during the Carnival period, which ends on February 21st.

There is even a forecast that Bolsonaro will meet next month with the singer Netinho in the North American country, as found out by People’s Gazette. The musician is a supporter of the former president and ran for federal deputy for the PL in the last election under the name “Netinho da Bahia”. He obtained around 31,400 valid votes, but was not elected.

Bolsonaro’s stay in the United States may depend, however, on adjustments to his visa status. He entered the country when he was still President of the Republic, that is, with a diplomatic visa. To remain in Orlando, he needs tourist visa status, which would allow him to stay there for up to six months.

The ex-president’s diplomatic visa expires on Monday (30), but allies say he has started the process of adjusting his visa status. If the request is denied and he does not return to Brazil, a possible scenario would be deportation. Some Democratic Party deputies have been pressing US President Joe Biden for weeks for this to happen.

But Bolsonaro’s surroundings are confident that the visa change request will be granted and that this will be enough to ensure their conditions of stay. However, even if he obtains authorization from the US State, it is uncertain how likely Bolsonaro would remain in the United States.

What still weighs on the decision to return Bolsonaro to Brazil

The former president still lives a dilemma about whether or not to return to Brazil. A portion of his political and family environment thinks that it is important for him to return to the country and another group believes that it is more prudent to remain in the United States. Councilman Carlos Bolsonaro (Republicanos-RJ) is one of the family members who defends the former president’s stay in Orlando. The understanding is that the return is not prudent due to the current political situation in the country.

The perception among allies and family members who support Bolsonaro’s stay on US soil is that a return now would make him an easy target for the left and even for center leaders who support the investigation and possible arrest of the former president.

There are investigation requests made to the Federal Public Ministry (PF) by PT deputies for allegedly committing the crime of genocide against Yanomami indigenous people and also for alleged responsibility for the acts of vandalism on January 8. Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL) defended the arrest of the former president.

For these reasons, interlocutors close to the family say that any return of Bolsonaro would be delayed until after the beginning of the legislative year and probably even after Carnival. As the new legislature has more conservative parliamentarians, part of them aligned with the former president, the idea is to return to Brazil with some political support.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), incidentally, returned to Brazil to support the candidacy of senator-elect Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) for the presidency of the Senate, but also to pave the political and legal “ground” favorable to the return of the father. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro also returned to Brazil on Thursday night (26) after spending almost a month in Orlando. According to the Metrópoles website, however, the reason is associated with the return to school of her daughter, Laura Bolsonaro.

Who pushes for Bolsonaro’s return to the country

With the extension of Bolsonaro’s stay, he fails to comply with a signal made to some political allies, such as the national president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, that he would return to the country at the end of the expiration of the diplomatic visa period. That is, the prediction was that he could return by the end of January.

“He told me that he returns at the end of the month and here in the PL he will be of great importance”, said Valdemar this Friday (27th) in an interview with CNN Brazil. The president of the PL is one of the main supporters of Bolsonaro’s return to Brazil. Allies of the party’s political wing and other conservative leaders advocate that he return and participate in the right-wing reorganization process.

Valdemar hopes Bolsonaro will return and help him engage with conservative voters. “We have people who are from the right, I would say the extreme right, and these people I will have a little difficulty with them, I have no doubt. And he can help me a lot in that, because they all respect Bolsonaro a lot , consider Bolsonaro, and Bolsonaro can do a great job here in the party, slowly”, he commented.

The president of the party expressed interest in the former president participating in lectures and being an important electoral supporter of the PL to make mayors and councilors in next year’s municipal elections. “Today, we have 350 mayors in Brazil. We intend to reach a thousand mayors. But for that, Bolsonaro has prestige in these places, in these cities, so he can give a very big boost to our candidates”, commented the president of the PL.

In addition to political motivations, some allies also advise the former president to return for health reasons. Doctor Antônio Luiz Macedo, who has been treating Bolsonaro since 2018, when the former president was stabbed during an election campaign act in Juiz de Fora (MG), said he will have to undergo a new surgery on the intestine as soon as he returns to the country. Brazil. Concern about his clinical condition increased requests for his return.