Veto of contact between Bolsonaro and Valdemar affects the election – 02/09/2024 – Power

The Federal Police operation investigating an attempted coup d’état imposed an obstacle to the efforts of the PL, party of former president Jair Bolsonaro, for the municipal elections.

In the opinion of leaders of the party, the former president’s impediment to talking to other targets of the investigation —among them, the party’s president, Valdemar Costa Neto— undermines the strategies designed for this year’s election.

The consequences of the investigation that affects the former president’s surroundings bring uncertainty mainly to the two capitals that are the focus of Bolsonarism in the country, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.

Bolsonaro was one of the targets of this Thursday’s operation (8) and had his passport seized. Valdemar was arrested for illegal possession of a firearm. General Walter Braga Netto, also from the party, was another target. Everyone is prevented from communicating with each other.

According to supporters, Braga Netto would have the role of coordinating the PL’s municipal campaigns. He had been chosen for the role because he was a man of Bolsonaro’s strict confidence and because he had a vision as a strategist, as a military man, and as a conciliator.

Now, however, without being able to communicate with the party’s main leaders, the general is prevented from carrying out his role.

Within the PL’s plans for 2024, the party intends to elect a thousand mayors across the country. To achieve this, they are betting on Bolsonaro’s popularity and access to abundant electoral and party funds — achieved after the party became the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies in 2022.

As there were internal disputes, dialogue between Bolsonaro and Valdemar was fundamental. Now, they will depend on interlocutors to reach consensus in the city.

In Rio de Janeiro, one of the frictions occurs over the choice of vice-president for the Bolsonaro candidate.

On the one hand, the wing linked to former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, supported by Valdemar, defends a pure ticket with federal deputy Chris Tonietto. On the other, Bolsonaro’s children, supported by their father, defend offering the position to an allied party, to increase the competitiveness of the candidacy.

The final decision, according to sources familiar with the conversations, is Bolsonaro’s, and the former president would choose who would be deputy to federal deputy Alexandre Ramagem. The problem is that, now, the parliamentarian’s candidacy has come into question.

This is because Ramagem is also the target of investigations by the PF, in an inquiry that investigates illegal monitoring by Abin (Brazilian Intelligence Agency) during the Bolsonaro government.

The two investigations exclude alliances with other parties, as their leaders are afraid of linking their image in an election year with those being investigated who could be targets of more actions in a short space of time.

In their opinion, it is not favorable for anyone to be on the platform of someone who could be arrested on the eve of the election.

In this way, important acronyms in Rio, such as PP, MDB and União Brasil, are already considering launching their own candidates or allying themselves with Bolsonaro’s main opponent in the city, Mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD), appointed as the favorite in the dispute.

Furthermore, within the PL, there is a gap for the party to nominate a more neutral name in the race for mayor, someone who is not so closely linked to the former president. One of the possibilities is Senator Carlos Portinho, who has already started to move.

Recently, he met with governor Cláudio Castro (PL) and the president of the Legislative Assembly, Rodrigo Bacellar, who is about to take command of União Brasil in Rio de Janeiro. After this Thursday’s operation and faced with these uncertainties, leaders of Rio’s PL met at a dinner to define the next steps.

Choice of vice in SP

In São Paulo, the operation has the potential to affect the campaign of Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB), where it was already taken for granted that the PL would take the vice-presidential position. Among allied parties, there was a perception that the PL, as it was the largest party and was Bolsonaro’s party, would have preference in this choice.

Nunes would ask for a survey to evaluate the list of names indicated by Valdemar, state deputy Tomé Abduch (Republicanos-SP), state secretary of Women’s Policies, Sonaira Fernandes (Republicanos-SP), delegate Raquel Gallinati and former head of Rota, Colonel Mello Araújo – the latter an indication from Bolsonaro.

Politicians around Nunes minimize the impact on the campaign. However, allied acronyms are already waiting to verify the extent of the damage to Bolsonaro’s image.

Depending on the impact and with the increased risk of the former president being arrested, the leaders assess that the direct link with his party may no longer be advantageous for Nunes.

In this case, parties such as União Brasil, led by councilor Milton Leite — president of the City Council — and the Republicans, which includes governor Tarcísio de Freitas, emerge as possible heirs to the vacancy.

Leite, who controls União Brasil in São Paulo, is one of those targeting the post. Furthermore, the importance of Tarcísio, who has not yet spoken out about his vice-president, would also grow, say leaders.

This Thursday, Nunes again avoided commenting on the fact that the former president was in the sights of the Federal Police. nQuestioned by the press during the inauguration of a UBS in the east zone, he, who has already said that he considers Bolsonaro a Democrat, stated that he had nothing to comment on and that he was “taking care of the city”.

Nunes’ main opponent, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), did not miss the opportunity to remember the phrase and the bond between them.

“Bolsonaro’s candidate for Mayor of São Paulo has now said that he ‘can’t comment’ on the PF operation. It would be good to know if he still considers his political godfather a ‘democrat’, as he declared recently,” he wrote on a network Social.

While Nunes tries to escape polarization, Boulos is betting on the opposite strategy, trusting that the left’s advantage in the city registered in 2022 can be repeated.