US harvest has the worst conditions since 2012, the year of the great drought – 06/20/2023 – Shuttle

Crop expectations in the United States are now evaluated based on the behavior of the weather. The conditions of American crops at this time of the year are the worst since 2012, when the country recorded an intense drop in grain production.

The market’s response to this fear of a possible repeat of 2012 was a rise in prices in Chicago. The increase was due both to the climate and to the participation of funds in the market.

For now, there are no obvious signs of a break, but the scenario in the United States influences prices in Chicago and gives a little relief to Brazilian producers, according to Daniele Siqueira, an analyst at AgRural, in Curitiba.

There is a similarity between the current conditions and those of 2012, mainly because the soil is dry, as it was in that season. In 2012, the second half of June was marked by hot weather, which was repeated with greater intensity in July. This caused the corn crop to fail.

This year, the temperature has dropped, but it rains little, which worries the sector. If June does not repeat the adverse conditions of a decade ago, the crop should not have the same behavior as that year, says Siqueira. In 2012, the temperature dropped again in August and the soybean harvest had a smaller drop.

For Brazil, the rise in prices in Chicago is favorable. It is one of the few incentives for price recovery, says the AgRural analyst. The exchange rate is falling and premiums are negative, since there is still a lot of soybeans to be sold.

There is not room, however, for much elevation, but it helps the producer to spawn part of the crop that is being marketed late.

A repeat of the 2012 scenario in the United States this year would change the entire picture of world supply. The loss in that crop was 103 million tons of corn, which dropped to 273 million, and 4 million tons of soybeans, which dropped to 83 million.

Domestic market prices, which had a recovery last week, remained practically stable this Monday (20). A bag of soy was R$ 126.50 in Cascavel (PR) and R$ 109 in Sorriso (MT). A bag of corn remained at R$55 in Cascavel and R$33 in Sorriso, according to AgRural’s price monitoring.

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