Unemployment drops to 8.3% and reaches 8.9 million, says IBGE – 06/30/2023 – Market

The unemployment rate fell to 8.3% in the quarter ended in May in Brazil, informed this Friday (30) the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

At the median, analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected 8.3%. The rate was 8.6% in the immediately previous quarter, which ended in February.

According to the IBGE, the number of unemployed fell to 8.9 million by May. This contingent was 9.2 million in the previous three months.

The data are part of the Continuous PNAD (Continuous National Household Sample Survey). Pnad investigates both the formal and informal labor market – from jobs with a formal contract or CNPJ to the popular odd jobs.

“This decline in the quarter was more influenced by the drop in the number of people looking for work than by the significant increase in workers. It was the lower pressure on the labor market that caused the reduction in the unemployment rate”, explains Adriana Beringuy, coordinator of Research by Household Sample.

The unemployed population, according to official statistics, is made up of people aged 14 or over who are unemployed and are looking for jobs. Those who are not looking for opportunities, even without having a job, do not fit into this definition.

In the quarter ended in April, which is part of another Pnad series, the unemployment rate was already 8.5%. The unemployed population was 9.1 million at the time.

After the ravages of the pandemic, the generation of job vacancies benefited from vaccination against Covid-19 from 2021. Immunization allowed the return of people’s circulation and the reopening of companies, intensified in 2022.

Analysts still see signs of resilience in the job market, but expect the pace of job creation to slow down throughout 2023. The projection is associated with the scenario of slowing economic activity amidst the context of high interest rates.

The data released this Friday by the IBGE have not yet been impacted by the 2022 Demographic Census, whose initial results were published by the institute on Wednesday (28).

The Census is the basis for updating population statistics used by the agency in sample surveys. As the count indicated a smaller population than that estimated by the IBGE, it may lead to revisions in Pnad indicators, according to specialists.

The Census accounted for a population of 203.1 million in Brazil, but the division by age group has not yet been disclosed.