Understand the risk of Lula’s biggest defeat by 5 points – 05/31/2023 – Politics

The Lula government (PT) will try once again this Wednesday (31) to approve the MP (provisional measure) that deals with the restructuring of the Esplanada dos Ministérios under the risk of it being overthrown in the face of pressure from parliamentarians for changes in the relationship of the PT management with Congress.

The MP would be analyzed this Tuesday (30), but ended up being postponed in a setback to the plans of the Planalto Palace, which has until Thursday night (1st) to approve the proposal in the plenary of the Chamber and later in the Senate. .

The movement against the MP vote has the support of centrão leaders, but also includes members of parties close to Lula, such as Solidariedade. The political temperature, however, indicates that Lula and Planalto organizers will need a strong reaction to avoid the government’s biggest defeat so far.

In this MP, Congress disfigured a series of attributions linked especially to environmental and indigenous issues. Members of the government, however, claim that it could already be considered a “victory” if the text approved by the Chamber is the same as the one considered by the mixed committee.

Understand what explains this scenario of setback to the federal government:

1) What is the reason for the postponement of the vote? There are a number of them. The decision for postponement was taken at a meeting between Arthur Lira (PP-AL), mayor, and party leaders, including government leader José Guimarães (PT-CE), late Tuesday night.

At the time, Guimarães was charged, according to reports, for the delay in releasing positions and amendments and for the lack of dialogue between deputies and government ministers and the President of the Republic.

They also point out that there is excess space for the PT itself and acronyms that do not necessarily deliver votes in Congress, such as União Brasil.

2) Congressional friction with Lula’s ministers contribute to this climate? Yes. Parliamentarians complained a lot about the posture of Rui Costa (Casa Civil) and Flávio Dino (Justice).

The first is blamed for the delay in releasing amendments and positions, in addition to the lack of political savvy. Deputies complain that he does not receive them and tries, without articulating, to adopt measures that circumvent Congress, such as the decree of the sanitation framework.

Dino, on the other hand, was the target of complaints for traveling the country and not communicating with parliamentarians so that they can do politics in the states.

Marina Silva (Environment) and Sônia Guajajara (Indigenous Peoples), whose ministries were the most affected by the version given by Congress to the provisional measure, are criticized for blocking the appointment of positions.

According to reports, Marina does not allow the appointment of parliamentarians in the states to Ibama and Guajajara, in turn, does not accept political appointments to Funai’s regional posts.

3) Lula has a sufficient base for approval of projects in the Chamber and in the Senate? No. Lula has a leftist base that amounts to only about a quarter of the seats in Congress. For this reason, he has distributed ministries to center and right-wing parties and seeks retail support, with the sharing of amendments and positions. At this point, there is pressure from Arthur Lira, president of the Chamber, and his allies to maintain the management of these transfers, as a way to have better results in obtaining support.

4) The rebellion is commanded only by the calling block centrão, formed by center and right-wing parties? No. The movement against the MP vote does have the support of centrão leaders, but also includes members of parties close to Lula, such as Solidariedade. The political temperature, however, indicates that Lula and Planalto organizers will need a strong reaction to avoid the government’s biggest defeat so far.

5) Barriers to the MP votes are linked only to the relationship between Lula and Congress? No. Behind the obstacles there is also a dispute between the mayor, Arthur Lira, and senator Renan Calheiros (MDB) that should remain regardless of the outcome of the MP, in the assessment of government supporters and members of the Planalto Palace.

In addition to the dissatisfaction of parliamentarians, members of the government say that Lira sent messages asking the Planalto Palace to resign Minister Renan Filho (Transport). The mayor was irritated by publications on social networks by Renan, the minister’s father and Lula’s ally.

On Twitter, the senator called Lira a deadbeat, accused him of embezzling public money and also of having beaten his ex-wife Julyenne Lins.

The president of the Chamber sent a message to Planalto that he considered the declarations of the senator from Lula’s base to be inadmissible and that the government was being lenient in keeping his son, Renan Filho, at the head of the Ministry of Transport.

Renan’s allies, however, say that the government makes a mistaken assessment of the influence of a local dispute, in Alagoas, on national politics. A number of government leaders also minimize the impact of the clash between the mayor and the senator.

At night, the mayor took to social media to deny that he had “asked for the head” of the minister. “The information I asked for ‘the minister’s head’ is false and unreasonable, and much less in exchange for approval of any government proposal. I have always acted with respect for the Powers”, he wrote.