Understand the election of Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa – 02/24/2023 – World

There was no lack of reasons for the climate of frustration: violence is growing at a gallop and spreading throughout the country. Unemployment is sky high. Then, a disorderly upgrade of paper money created a cash shortage and crowned Nigerians’ dissatisfaction.

On the doorstep of the presidential elections in the nation that is home to one in six Africans, there were hundreds of people sleeping in front of banks in the hope of being able to withdraw the local currency, the naira. In a largely informal economy, physical currency still dominates.

Some no longer had bills to buy food and medicine, even though they had money in the bank. Others could no longer afford medical treatments. And there are reports of women giving birth at home because they could not afford hospital care.

Faced with a state that is not able to serve its population of 221 million inhabitants, 18 candidates are trying to replace the former soldier Muhammadu Buhari at Aso Villa, the headquarters of the Presidency.

Only three, however, show a real chance of winning: Bola Tinubu, from the ruling Congress of Progressives; Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party; and Peter Obi, from the Labor Party, the one who, from an underdog, became the main bet for the current election.

Representative of an unprecedented third way, he appears with 41% of the possible votes in a recent survey by the Stears institute if there is ample participation in the polls —voting is not mandatory in the country. But, if we repeat the scenario of the last election, when just over 35% of voters showed up to vote, Obi appears with 32% of support, behind Tinubu, with 39%.

Nigerians go to the polls this Saturday (25) in the dispute that symbolizes the longest period of democracy in the country: 24 years. But they charge candidates with answers to make the system serve everyone. Inflation is the highest in almost 20 years, and insecurity is widespread.

In an expected escalation, a series of attacks on campaign staff last Thursday (23) in Enugu, in the south, left two people dead: Senate candidate Oyibo Chukwu, from the Labor Party, and a driver. Authorities blame separatists in the Biafra region.

“The irrational bloodshed taking place in the country is beyond depressing,” Obi, the dead candidate’s presidential candidate, said on Twitter. “We cannot go down this dangerous path.”

With support mostly concentrated on youth —the majority of the Nigerian population—, he has topped election polls and has great engagement on social media. He even dubbed his supporters “obidientes”. But, as pointed out by Idayat Hassan, director of the Center for Democracy and Development, “it remains to be seen how and if the [apoio] online will translate to offline on Election Day”.

93.5 million people are eligible to vote, 10 million more than in the last election in 2019. Citizens aged 18 to 34 make up more than 80% of the new electorate and rely on Bvas, a new electronic biometrics system, as hope to fight the historical electoral fraud in the country.

In addition to capitalizing on this support, Obi has the challenge of winning in an electoral system that favors large parties – and this is not the case with Trabalhista. To emerge victorious, the candidate must have 25% of the votes in 24 of the 36 Nigerian states. In 2019, Labor won none.

If you overcome this scenario, your mission once in government would be equally overwhelming. The current president, Buhari, has already admitted that he has failed to combat the violence, which has expanded in recent years. And insecurity, formed by a complex puzzle of terrorism with fundamentalist groups in the north, separatism in the south and tensions between farmers in the center, poses other problems.

“It leaves a trail of destruction that continues for years to come,” says David Stevenson, UN World Food Program representative in Nigeria. “The unrest spreads to neighboring countries; in addition to the destruction, there is the impact on food and nutrition security.”

According to figures shared by Stevenson, 4.4 million are projected to face hunger this year in the three states most affected by terrorism: Borno, Adamawa and Yobe. And there are at least 700,000 Nigerian children at risk of acute malnutrition.

The UN representative says that the future government needs a policy of humanitarian resilience if it wants to change the situation, which is primarily about helping farmers and creating jobs.

The main candidates, in their booklets of proposals, defend economic growth as the main flag, but do not detail how they intend to do this in the country that, together with João Lourenço’s Angola, is the largest oil producer in all of Africa.

On the eve of casting their votes in the ballot boxes, the local population still fears the possibility of fraud, an old acquaintance of the country, and the episodes of violence that this factor can germinate, especially in the youth, who yearn for changes. Independent monitoring is vast: at least 229 groups with 147,000 local and international observers in all will follow the vote alongside more than 8,800 journalists accredited by the electoral institute. More than 400,000 security guards were mobilized.

The US, UK and European Union have demonstrated over the past week calling for free voting and fair results. Washington and London also sounded the alarm for sanctions against politicians who encourage episodes of violence throughout Saturday.

In addition to voting for president, Nigerians will renew the House and Senate. Based on previous elections, the expectation is that the final result of the dispute to govern the most populous country in Africa will be announced two or three days later. If no name reaches a majority of states, the second round takes place in three weeks.