TSE renewal will give Lula the power to form a majority hostile to Bolsonaro

The president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Alexandre de Moraes, should send this week to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) lists of lawyers appointed to assume two new vacancies in the Electoral Court. It is up to the STF to confirm the nominations, which will then be sent to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who has the power to choose two names of his choice. Those chosen will replace current ministers Carlos Horbach and Sérgio Banhos.

The composition of these lists is the subject of dispute and apprehension in Brasilia, as the new ministers must participate in the judgment of a lawsuit, which should be analyzed soon, which could make former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) ineligible for the next 8 years. . Moraes is interested in nominating allies not only to guarantee a majority against the former president, but to continue with influence over the Court when his term ends, in June 2024.

The TSE has seven full members, who vote in the main judgments, and seven substitutes, who act in case of absence or impediment of the first ones. In each of the two groups, three are ministers of the STF, two are ministers of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) and two are lawyers.

In the current formation, the seven ministers voted for the impeachment of federal deputy Deltan Dallagnol (Podemos-PR). The decision was produced without fanfare, quickly and discreetly among the ministers. As seen in the session, there was no discussion between them, and there was already a prediction by the President of the Court that there would be no disagreements. The rapporteur, Benedito Gonçalves, Cármen Lúcia, Kassio Nunes Marques, Raul Araújo, Sérgio Banhos, Carlos Horbach and Alexandre de Moraes voted for ineligibility.

The vacancies reserved for ministers are occupied on a rotating basis: the oldest who has not yet joined the TSE enters as a substitute and then takes over as head of another who has ended his term, which lasts two biennia. Lawyers are chosen by the President of the Republic from a list made up by the President of the TSE and later ratified by the STF.

These nominations are highly disputed in Brasilia and usually include lawyers close to the ministers of the STF. In the current dispute, Moraes has articulated the formation of lists with close lawyers, who will be decisive in condemning or acquitting Bolsonaro, in PT and PDT actions, mainly, that want to make him ineligible for the 2026 elections. president of the TSE does not have a majority guaranteed by the conviction.

TSE votes on Bolsonaro’s ineligibility

Behind the scenes, it is taken for granted that there would be only three votes against Bolsonaro: from the rapporteur of the cases, Benedito Gonçalves, from the STJ, from Cármen Lúcia, from the STF, and from Alexandre de Moraes himself. Minister Raul Araújo, of the STJ, has already cast favorable votes for the former president during the 2022 election campaign. Baths and Horbach, in turn, are considered independent and decide on a case-by-case basis, in a technical manner. The two were chosen by Bolsonaro for the TSE and would hardly have Lula’s sympathy.

Baths is in its second biennium and must leave the TSE. Traditionally, his vacancy should go to the substitute Maria Cláudia Bucchianeri, also chosen by Bolsonaro. Everything indicates that it will not be on the list of Moraes to the STF and that it will then be destined for Lula.

In last year’s campaign, she also voted against punishing Bolsonaro – in a case involving posts linking the PT to the PCC and later on the use of presidential palaces to record live broadcasts.

Horbach, in turn, could stay two more years, as he is at the end of the first biennium. Last week, aware that he tends to be passed over, he announced that he will leave the court. He drew attention in 2021 for voting against the impeachment of state deputy Fernando Francischini (União-PR). This decision is considered crucial for Bolsonaro’s case, because it inaugurated the understanding that casting suspicion on electronic voting machines on social networks constitutes abuse of political power and misuse of the media.

The most advanced action against Bolsonaro at the TSE is by the PDT and accuses him of these same crimes, because of a meeting he promoted in July 2022 with ambassadors, at the Palácio da Alvorada, to question the security of the ballot boxes and the impartiality of the TSE. The PDT says that the event was part of a campaign by the former president to generate distrust in the result in case of defeat. During the process, the rapporteur, Benedito Gonçalves, incorporated as evidence Bolsonaro’s previous demonstrations against the ballot boxes and events that occurred after the elections, such as the invasion and depredation of the seats of the Powers on January 8. PT has similar action to try to remove the former president from the elections for the next 8 years. In total, 16 actions of ineligibility are pending against Bolsonaro.

Alexandre de Moraes will only stay at the TSE until June 2024. There would be enough time to judge these actions, but not necessarily a majority for conviction. Therefore, there is an interest in securing votes against the former president as soon as possible. Among the lawyers close to the minister who may be appointed are Floriano Azevedo Marques Neto and Fabricio Medeiros.

In 2026, the year of the next presidential elections, who will be in charge of the TSE is Kassio Nunes Marques, appointed by Bolsonaro to the STF with the support of Centrão. In addition to him, minister André Mendonça, also appointed by the former president, will be in charge. The third member of the STF on the Electoral Court will be Dias Toffoli, appointed by Lula, but who had a good dialogue with Bolsonaro during his term. From the STJ, who will be on the TSE is Minister Isabel Gallotti, with an independent profile.

In theory, it would be possible for Bolsonaro to reverse a TSE conviction with the STF. There is even an action in the Supreme Court to annul fines imposed on the former president due to the meeting with ambassadors, with the same defense argument: that it was a legitimate discussion, convened by a head of state, within the limits of freedom. of expression.

Bolsonaro allies consider scenarios for 2026

Around Bolsonaro, close allies believe that an eventual conviction can be reversed, especially if the former president maintains his popularity and if the current Lula government fails in the economy and collapses in popularity. But if he really stays out of the 2026 election, the PL will be able to bet on a natural heir of their votes, like the sons Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), senator, or Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), federal deputy.

“If they want to stop Bolsonaro, make him ineligible, that is impossible. Why? Because he didn’t commit any crime. Nobody can condemn a former president of the Republic, make him ineligible, because he made a comment about this or that. That doesn’t exist on the planet. Another thing: if they do this to him, make him ineligible, he will increase his transfer power by 30%, you can write”, said the president of the PL, Valdemar da Costa Neto, in a video distributed to party supporters.

Former head of the Civil House of Bolsonaro and opponent of Lula in the Senate, Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI) has mentioned the possibility that the right will launch as opponents of the PT in 2026 the governors Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), Romeu Zema (Novo-MG), Cláudio Castro (PL-RJ) or Ratinho Júnior (PSD-PR), in case the former president becomes ineligible. Even so, he believes that the former president is still the strongest opposition to Lula.

“If it were up to him [Bolsonaro], maybe he hung up his boots. But he cannot do that, he has no right to lose his leadership. Only he leads. Tarcísio doesn’t lead, Zema doesn’t lead, Ratinho doesn’t lead, Ciro doesn’t lead. Who leads is Jair Bolsonaro. People believe in him, believe in his life story. You can be sure: he will be the biggest voter in 2024 and 2026 if he is not a candidate”, he said in a radio interview Young pan.