The political cost of Lula’s governance was high in 2023 and is expected to increase

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ended the first year of his third term with a series of votes in favor of his government in the National Congress. According to the latest survey by the Polling Data institute, the head of the Executive will end December with 78% governability and 90% party loyalty from the governing base. However, the countless political concessions and the more than R$30 billion distributed in parliamentary amendments this year – 79% higher than that committed during the administration of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – showed that the political and financial cost of advancing projects Government interest in the Legislature proved to be too expensive in 2023 and could be even higher in 2024.

“The cost of governability for Brazilian presidents has progressively increased over the last 10, 15 years as a consequence of party hyper-fragmentation and the establishment of a dynamic according to which the President of the Republic’s bargaining chip, which are amendments, has lost some of its value. great power he had”, explains political scientist Elton Gomes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI).

For him, the non-voting on certain agendas of interest to the government this year, such as the PL of Fake Newsshows that the Executive is weak in the face of congressmen.

The percentages of governability achieved by Lula are similar to those recorded in the first year of his first election in office, in 2003. At the time, the PT member had ended the year with a governability of 82%, having secured the loyalty of 95% of the party’s base. government. The difference, on the other hand, is that that year the opposition had only 39% of its base united. After 20 years, Lula is faced with an organized opposition with 83% party loyalty.

To arrive at the aforementioned values, Polling Data analyzes the performance of the government and the opposition on important matters for Congress. Bills (PL), provisional measures (MPV), complementary bills (PLP) and proposed amendments to the Constitution (PEC) are considered.

In Lula’s case, the high point of his governability was observed in May, when the Chamber approved for the first time the project for the new fiscal framework (PLP 93/2023). At the time, the PT’s governability reached 82%, with the proposal receiving 367 votes out of the 470 present. On the same day that the proposal was approved, on May 24, Lula released R$1.1 billion in parliamentary amendments.

In June, the government saw this percentage drop abruptly to 73% when Congress approved PL 409/2007, which transfers the responsibility for land demarcation from the Executive to the Legislative. Despite the contrary orientation, the government managed only 155 votes out of the 439 present. Another factor that weighed on the government was the rejection of the request to withdraw from the agenda presented by deputy Zeca Dirceu (PT-PR). The request received 257 votes against and 123 in favor.

The governability of “Lula 3” rose again at the end of August, when the PT member continued with a mini ministerial reform to accommodate Centrão parties, such as the PP and Republicans. In order for the Tax Reform and other economic agendas approved now in December to be successful, Lula swore in deputies André Fufuca (PP-MA) and Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos-PE) as ministers of Sports and Ports and Airports, respectively.

Data collected by the report on the website Congress Scoreboard show how much the loyalty of these parties represents for the government. Of the 108 votes in the Chamber of Deputies, the PP – a party led by Ciro Nogueira who in 2022 supported Bolsonaro’s candidacy – totaled 4,371 votes from the 53 federal deputies, of which 2,829 (65%) were pro-government and 1,491 (34%) were pro-government. -opposition. The Republicans, who also supported Bolsonaro’s re-election and have the governor of São Paulo Tarcisio de Freitas as their exponent, totaled 3,805 votes, 2,575 (68%) for the government and 1,216 (32%) for the opposition.

In 2024, Lula will be more dependent on Lira

When defending the parliamentary amendments, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), gave a tough message to the government: he stated that the government has its own investment programs and policies, but that it does not rule the Budget.

“The rapporteur came to my house [residência oficial] and said that the government ‘did not send the amendments from the National Congress in the budget’. We asked the government to make the cuts, since it forgot or by chance did not send the amendments agreed with Congress, which are committee amendments, that the government point out where it would be cut, where the government thought it was overinflated”, he said. in an interview with GloboNews.

The statement came after the Joint Budget Committee (CMO) proposed, on Thursday (21), a change in the amendments, from R$48 billion to R$53 billion. The amount will be paid with a cut in the investments planned for the New PAC next year. Furthermore, Congress approved a calendar for the implementation of mandatory parliamentary amendments, that is, mandatory payment, such as bench and individual amendments.

As a result, the government will lose room for maneuver in negotiations with the Legislature and will be forced to direct resources to deputies’ local policies instead of federal-level proposals. On the other hand, the pressure from congressmen on the Executive may not ease, as the government still has ministries, public companies and bodies linked to the Union.

“The convergence between government and Congress was extremely expensive. This shows that the government is not strengthened, but is in a precarious situation. No important customs agenda, no left-wing ideological agenda was even voted on. There were even cases of agendas that were withdrawn, that were not put forward to avoid a crushing defeat,” she said.

Pressure from the Legislature on Lula for positions is expected to increase

On December 15, Lula hinted that he could create more ministries. At the time, the PT member said that the government “has few ministers”, even though it has an Esplanada with 38 ministries, a record among presidents and equal to that of Dilma Rousseff (PT) when she was prevented from continuing in office in 2016.

In the opinion of experts, the withdrawal of amendments from negotiations between Congress and Planalto should put positions in ministries and bodies back in the spotlight of parliamentarians. However, granting these positions may not be enough for Lula’s governance in 2024.

“I think the government’s ability to open more ministries is reaching its limit. The Brazilian State is heavily in debt and, no matter how much revenue increases, at some point this will affect the performance of the economy – if it isn’t already affecting it”, explains political scientist Adriano Cerqueira, professor at the Brazilian Institute of Capital Markets (Ibmec).

“Another important point is that positions alone do not guarantee that matters of interest to the government will be approved. In every vote something more is required. The handing over of positions and ministries is more aimed at preventing a de facto anti-government majority settle in and start working”, continues Cerqueira.

Weakening of the Executive could boost the proposal for semi-presidentialism

With the power of the budget in the hands of Congress and the limitation of negotiations by the Executive, the semi-presidentialism agenda could gain strength in the coming years. The theme is defended by Lira, who suggests that this model, in which the president shares power with a prime minister elected by Congress, could be introduced in 2030 or 2034.

In March this year, during an event at the São Paulo Commercial Association (ACSP), Lira declared that semi-presidentialism allows for a better division of responsibilities between Congress and the President of the Republic in running the government and, therefore, would defuse the country’s political instability. once and for all. “The Constitution is already parliamentary. It is unreasonable for us not to look for a more suitable model”, stated the president of the Chamber.

Cerqueira explains that semi-presidentialism, as occurs in France, can generate distortions in the political system that must be observed with caution.

“The difference between presidentialism and semi-presidentialism is that the head of state appoints the prime minister, who will be head of government. It turns out that, as in France, you have a situation of cohabitation in which the opposition to the current president obtains a majority in the French National Assembly. Because of this, the president is compelled, in the name of governability, to nominate someone from the opposition to be prime minister. On the other hand, the president has the power to remove the prime minister and call new elections”, explained the professor.

And he added: “In the case of Brazil and the situation involving Arthur Lira, we can imagine a scenario in which he becomes responsible for running the government and Lula as head of state representing Brazil, but with powers to intervene in internal politics ”.