Tarcísio seeks armor for 2026 with Bolsonaro ineligible – 06/19/2023 – Politics

If the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) decides for the ineligibility of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), as politicians and jurists bet, all eyes will turn to Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), 47, the former minister who was elected governor of São Paulo thanks to the support of the former president.

As the Palácio dos Bandeirantes is seen as a catapult for the Planalto Palace, Tarcísio has been avoiding a national project in 2026 since before he sat down in the chair and, depending on his assistants, he should not focus efforts to make himself viable for the Presidency even if the pressure increases.

In the circle close to Bolsonaro, Tarcísio is considered the main successor, who would inherit the votes and leadership of the former president in the right field. This is also what polls with voters indicate. Although the governor has moved to the center, he maintains Bolsonaro’s confidence, which would make it possible for him to pass the baton.

But, if Bolsonaristas have in Tarcísio a lifeline of their political future, the plans of another godfather of the governor, Gilberto Kassab (PSD), are different. The Secretary of Government and other Tarcísio assistants defend that he remain in office for eight years, which would lead the former minister to run for the Presidency only in 2030 – but still young, aged 55, and without Lula in the direct race.

Despite his transit in Brasilia, Kassab is not dedicated to sewing a national candidacy for Tarcísio. On the contrary, he has piloted a re-election plan, as victory is considered assured.

Tarcísio himself indicates that his path is reappointment, which would allow him to deliver long-term projects in the state.

This speech is repeated in a coordinated way by his allies, who even suggest other presidential candidates to replace Bolsonaro, such as governors Romeu Zema (Novo-MG) and Ratinho Júnior (PSD-PR), in addition to Senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS).

In May, in an interview with CNN Brasil, Tarcísio ruled out running for president, saying he was focused on good management. He mentioned Zema, Ratinho, Raquel Lyra (PSDB-PE) and Eduardo Leite (PSDB-RS) as presidential candidates – but omitted Bolsonaro.

In addition to Bolsonaro’s ineligibility, a presidential candidacy for Tarcísio in 2026 in the Bolsonarist camp would still depend on many factors, such as the approval of his government, the construction of a party alliance and the position of any opponents in the election.

But the current conditions point to a governor trapped in the future between the clamor of the right and his own political project of re-election.

Most of the deputies and secretaries heard by the report say they believe that, if an avenue of opportunity is open for Tarcísio in 2026, he will not be able to resist running for Planalto. They claim that the governor is a good name and should “think big”.

In that case, he would respond to a request from Bolsonaro in this regard, just as he did in 2022, when he agreed to run for government. A minority, however, hopes that he will resist the appeal and see Bolsonaro without power of influence if he is ineligible.

More than three years before the 2026 campaign, however, Tarcísio’s speech serves all plans. At that time, even those who wanted to be president concealed their claim, which prevented early political exposure and postponed clashes with opponents.

In addition, a showcase with achievements and a well-evaluated government cater for both the re-election campaign and a presidential candidacy.

Tarcísio’s interlocutors minimize the pressure and claim that he is only in the sixth month of management. They argue that reconciling the roles of head of state executive and presidential candidate would require an expenditure of energy that would divert him from issues such as cracolândia, health and education.

Lieutenant Governor Felicio Ramuth (PSD) says that the eventual ineligibility of the former president does not change Tarcísio’s focus and that only time will tell if he will have a presidential opportunity in 2026.

“Tarcísio follows the mission of the state project, offering better services in the present and pointing to the future with a great legacy. I have never seen him dedicate even a minute of his agenda to a political or electoral project”, he says.

Bolsonaro’s own strategy, as the Sheetgoes against Tarcísio’s double boiler tactic.

To avoid losing political and electoral relevance, the former president must avoid building a successor right away if he becomes ineligible. His defense will seek all possible judicial remedies to reverse the eventual TSE decision by 2026.

Tarcísio’s style, less political than managerial, also cools down electoral pretensions. The governor dedicates himself to concessions and works, as he did in the Ministry of Infrastructure, and leaves political action in the background, which brings him wear and tear in the Legislative Assembly.

In the corridors of Bandeirantes, two former governors are mentioned as an example that, in politics, skipping career steps to try to be president can go wrong – José Serra (PSDB) and João Doria (former PSDB). Both left the prefecture before the end of the term and were elected to the government, but not to the Planalto (Doria did not even run for office).

Politicians from Kassab’s team say that São Paulo’s problems require long-term solutions and that there is an eight-year plan outlined. It would be a shame, they say, for a presidential candidacy to trample on the maturation of his image as an administrator.

For them, it is very important that Tarcísio has a mark as a politician — that of a director. Therefore, this time to effect your deliveries is necessary. Once recognized by the population in this way, Tarcísio would depend less on Bolsonaro to reach the Planalto later.

Government members consider Tarcísio a center-right name, that is, with a wider range of voters than Bolsonaro, who is more radical. In this sense, the separation between godfather and godchild is seen as an electoral asset.

Bolsonarists, on the other hand, think the opposite and criticize Tarcísio for not defending the conservative agenda and not serving allies.

Deputies say they have been condescending so far, but that the governor’s great challenge is to maintain the base that elected him – or he may no longer be considered Bolsonaro’s heir.

The clash between the extreme right and Tarcísio has accumulated a series of episodes since the election, starting with the maintenance of cameras in police uniforms to the recent public funding for LGBT+ parades.

According to Bolsonaro’s allies, for the time being, Tarcísio’s high popularity gives him room for independence, but he could not stretch the rope to the point of breaking it – to be a candidate for president, he would have to choose a side of acting.