Tarcísio is evaluated as the main conservative leader by parliamentarians

For deputies and senators, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), is the main conservative leader in the country today. According to a survey carried out by the Ranking of Politiciansgiven the ineligibility of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Tarcísio is seen by parliamentarians as the best option for leading the conservatives.

The study also evaluated Tarcísio’s political competence, which proved to be much greater than other names analyzed. The political capacity of the governor of São Paulo to lead the right in the 2026 election is considered high by almost 70% of federal deputies and by 60% of senators.

The survey questioned parliamentarians about Tarcísio’s ability to also lead the center-right. In the Chamber of Deputies, 55% of right-wing parliamentarians believe that the governor can lead the political group. In the Federal Senate, 40% of right-wing senators say Tarcísio will be able to command the center-right in the 2026 elections.

For the political scientist of the Democratic Space Rogerio Schmitt, it is still early to discuss the succession in the conservative field. “A Tarcísio presidential candidacy in 2026 is certainly a possible scenario, but we are still three years away from the beginning of the presidential succession. It is worth remembering that he can also run for re-election in São Paulo, with much greater chances of victory. The municipal election in São Paulo next year will be an excellent thermometer of the political leadership of the governor”, ​​he evaluated.

In both legislative houses, Tarcísio de Freitas won as the most emerging name to lead the right in the coming years. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Romeu Zema (New Party) and Eduardo Leite (PSDB) were other names evaluated as a possible conservative leader.

“Theoretically, Tarcísio has more potential to ally himself electorally with the center than Bolsonaro ever had. The problem is that, at the federal level, the same center parties (PSD and MDB) that support him in São Paulo are the base of the Lula government and are unlikely to abandon the current president in a possible re-election project in 2026”.

Rogerio Schmitt, political scientist at Espaço Democrático.

The survey interviewed 102 federal deputies representing 21 different parties, and 21 senators, belonging to 13 different parties. The selection respected the criterion of party proportionality.

The interviews were conducted between the 13th and 14th of July, after the approval of the tax reform in the Chamber of Deputies, an episode in which Tarcísio was one of the main characters. Tarcísio’s opening in favor of the reform, signaled alongside the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, with whom he met, served to launch the vote. Upon leaving the meeting, Tarcísio said that he agreed with 95% of the proposal and would not be an obstacle to its approval. His gesture generated serious discomfort with Bolsonaro and with the opposition parliamentarians closest to him.