Tarcísio emerges as an alternative to Bolsonaro in 2026

A survey carried out by Genial/Quaest between April 13 and 16 pointed to the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), as the right-wing favorite candidate to replace Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the race for the 2026 Planalto, if the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) makes the former president ineligible.

According to the survey, which heard 2,015 people in 120 municipalities across Brazil, Bolsonaro’s former minister leads the list with 21% of the voting intentions, followed by former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), with 15%. The poll’s margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval.

The governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), comes next, with 10%, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Republicans), son of the former president, is in fourth place, with 5%. Other names added up to 1%, while 25% of respondents said they would not vote for any of the suggested names and 23% were unable or unwilling to answer.

In the Southeast region, Tarcísio (26%) and Zema (15%) are ahead in the list of favorites. In the South and Midwest/North, however, it is Michele who stands out, with 19% and 22%, respectively. In the Northeast, the dispute is concentrated between Tarcísio (16%) and Michelle (14%).

Tarcísio is the favorite among men (27%), while Michelle is the favorite among women (19%). He is also a favorite among voters with a higher education (29%). Institute director Felipe Nines pointed out that Tarcísio has the advantage of being relevant even among Lula voters or among those who did not vote or voted blank or canceled.