Tanks for Kiev – 01/28/2023 – Opinion

Since it became clear that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would not be the trip the Kremlin envisioned 11 months ago, the United States has seen an opportunity to confront Vladimir Putin’s aggressiveness without necessarily risking World War III.

Alongside the most belligerent European allies, the United Kingdom and Poland at the forefront, Washington led the Western effort to keep Kiev’s Armed Forces alive. So far, it has spent US$26.7 billion, more than 65% of total global military aid to the assaulted.

Given Putin’s repeated threats of such support, most of them nuclear in nature, countries in the NATO military club have gradually tested new levels of aid to Ukrainians.

First came portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, then howitzers and artillery systems with precision rockets. But no weapons that could be seen as offensive rather than defensive by Moscow, such as fighter planes and war tanks.

Also weighing on the caution of more muscular members of Europe, notably the Germany of reticent Prime Minister Olaf Scholz.

In addition to the fear of escalation, there were domestic factors: the economy gradually disconnected from its dependence on Russian gas, and public opinion is refractory to the warlike involvement of the country that bequeathed Prussian militarism and Nazism to the world.

With mounting pressure from the US, Germany acquiesced and agreed not only to send its Leopard-2 tanks to Kiev but also to allow operators of the ubiquitous model, used by 12 European countries, to do the same.

As a sign of commitment, Washington promised 31 Abrams tanks, the most powerful in the world. None of this, in the numbers announced, should change the dynamics of the war in the medium term. There are months to prepare the armored vehicles and train the military that will use them.

That said, from the political point of view it is a central change, which leaves the door open for increases in armament support, obviously increasing the risk of Russian reaction.

Perhaps more importantly, the now moderate number of tanks suggests that Ukraine’s allies want to keep the Russians under pressure, without giving Kiev any decisive chance, thus leading to peace talks.

Today, this is unthinkable for everyone: Ukrainians don’t want to cede more territory and Putin has made some gains after months of bad news, which should lead to major battles when the Northern Hemisphere’s winter cools down.

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