Support for Nunes in SP will depend on support from the MDB in Rio

The support of the Liberal Party for the re-election of the current mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), will depend on the support given by Baleia Rossi’s party (MDB) to federal deputy Alexandre Ramagem (PL-RJ) in the race for mayor of Rio de Janeiro in the 2024 elections. The information was confirmed by the president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto.

He stated to People’s Gazette who will meet with Rossi to discuss the exchange of support between the parties. Among the terms, Costa Neto asks the MDB to withdraw the candidacy of federal deputy Ottoni de Paula (MDB-RJ) for the municipal Executive.

“We haven’t sat down to talk yet. Our biggest work will be to resolve Bolsonaro’s support [a Nunes]. We want the party [MDB] with us. There is no concern about the Rio candidate [Ottoni] because he doesn’t have a vote. But, of course, the MDB with us, he would be out”, said the PL president.

Support for Nunes gains new chapter

Costa Neto’s statement marks a new chapter in the negotiations between PL and MDB for the 2024 elections. On December 22, the PL president stated that Bolsonaro had already decided to support Nunes.

“This week, Bolsonaro closed the matter and let’s go with Ricardo Nunes. He also said that we will have a surprise with the name chosen for vice,” Costa Neto told the newspaper The globe. The information was confirmed by the Liberal Party to People’s Gazette.

In addition to the candidacy in Rio, part of the negotiation between the two parties also involves Bolsonaro’s choice of Nunes’ vice-president. The behind-the-scenes speculation is that it is a name linked to public safety.

Negotiations between Costa Neto and Rossi could take Salles out of the race

Representative Ricardo Salles (PL) is another candidate to run for mayor of São Paulo, possibly for the PL. Last Friday (5), the parliamentarian stated that he “is waiting for Bolsonaro to return from his trip” to define the issue. However, if negotiations between PL and MDB proceed as expected by Costa Neto, the deputy’s name may be removed from the election.

In October, Bolsonaro guaranteed support for the deputy, but asked for time to convince his party, the PL. With the uncertainty surrounding the dispute, in the same month, Salles announced that he would leave the party to run for the capital of São Paulo. The movement was accepted by Costa Neto, who told members of the party that he would release the parliamentarian without the risk of losing his mandate.

With the uncertainty surrounding his candidacy, Salles even asked the PL for authorization to change his party without running the risk of losing his mandate in the Electoral Court. The idea was to enter the dispute for a party that would be born from the merger of PTB with Patriotas, but he changed his mind after Bolsonaro’s public statements defending his name, in October last year.

“I will do what President Bolsonaro determines. At the moment he wants me to be a candidate for the PL”, Salles told CNN. When contacted by the report, the deputy stated that he will only speak after meeting with the former president.

Despite Costa Neto, Bolsonaro’s allies defend Salles’ name

According to the investigation of the People’s Gazette, right-wing state deputies have been urging former president Bolsonaro to support his former minister. Commenting on Costa Neto’s statement about the agreements between PL and MDB, a PL parliamentarian who asked not to be identified stated that the party has little to gain from MDB’s eventual support for Ramagem’s candidacy.

He said that in Rio de Janeiro the MDB has little expressiveness to provide concrete support to the PL pre-candidate. In the Legislative Assembly of Rio de Janeiro (Alerj), the party led by Leonardo Picciani, former federal deputy for MDB, has only two parliamentarians: Ottoni Paula – father of federal deputy Ottoni de Paula who wants to run for mayor – and Rosenverg Reis . In the state of RJ, the party owns seven of the 92 city halls.

Ideological loyalty is another reason observed by allies. With Lula’s victory in 2022, right-wing parliamentarians are seeking to add candidates who are pro-Bolsonaro and aligned with the conservative discourse on issues relevant to this political spectrum. In their view, Nunes’ candidacy is seen with little confidence, as the mayor does not correspond to the opposition’s profile.

Nunes reinforces Bolsonaro’s desire for support

The recent disagreement between the mayor and former Secretary of International Relations Marta Suplicy shows that the Emedebista is also willing to get rid of allies to maintain the former president’s support. With Nunes and Bolsonaro approaching, Marta left municipal management after accepting Lula’s invitation to return to the PT and be Guilherme Boulos’ (PSOL) vice-president in the dispute for mayor of São Paulo.

Nunes told the press that the reason for Marta’s departure is not related to the possible alliance made with Bolsonaro. “That doesn’t work. O [ex-]President Bolsonaro went to have lunch with me at city hall. She was my advisor, she discussed political strategies,” said Nunes this Wednesday (10).

He also reiterated his desire to have Bolsonaro’s support. “I always said it. It wasn’t President Lula who told her that I want Bolsonaro’s support”, said the mayor when participating in the inauguration of guardianship councilors in the capital.

Security and polarization between right and left will mark elections

Among the challenges for the election in Rio de Janeiro, candidates will face the growing wave of violence in the city. According to data from the Public Security Institute (ISP) of Rio de Janeiro, from January to November 2023, the Metropolitan Region of Rio recorded 3 thousand homicides. The number represents an increase of 7% compared to the same period in 2022, when 2,812 homicides were recorded. With this dilemma, the expectation is that Ramagem’s campaign will focus on the scenario of insecurity against Eduardo Paes, despite security being a responsibility of the state and not the municipality.

In São Paulo, the polarization between Nunes and Boulos could reproduce polarizing aspects of the 2022 presidential election. At the time, Lula received 3,677,921 votes, equivalent to 53.54% of the city’s total. Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was the choice of 46.46% of voters and received 3,191,484 votes.

Furthermore, the current mayor must also be held accountable for the promises he made when replacing former mayor Bruno Covas, who died in 2021 from cancer of the digestive system. According to a survey carried out by g1 Based on the Goals Program Report (2021-2024), of the 77 goals stipulated for the City of São Paulo by the end of 2024, Nunes fulfilled only 13.

Among the indicators are the expansion of the use of LED lamps in public lighting, assistance to the population registered in income transfer and/or nutritional support programs and expansion of coverage in basic health care.