Soybean and beef hold the pace of agro exports in the 1st quarter – 03/04/2023 – Vaivém

Delay in the soybean harvest, lower commodity prices and an improvement in international supply made the Brazilian agricultural trade balance grow by just 2.4% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in the previous year.

Also weighing on this account was the withdrawal of China from the beef market for almost a month, due to an atypical case of mad cow in Pará. Due to a sanitary agreement, Brazil suspended exports to the Asian country, which has already returned to the Brazilian market.

Asia, even with smaller purchases of meat from Brazil by China, continues to be the main destination for Brazilian products. Japan imported 38% more this year, and Thailand, 23%.

Last year, agribusiness brought close to US$ 160 billion to the country, with a good evolution compared to 2021, due to high commodity prices and demand.

This year, the country maintains a pace of growth, but, despite having a greater volume to export, prices have retreated. High interest rates and external and internal inflation do not provide much room for increased demand.

In addition, the appreciation of the real, although small, makes Brazilian products less competitive.
Argentina had a big crop failure, but the United States promises to increase the planting area of ​​products that compete with Brazil in the international market.

Ukraine, after an intense reduction in the supply of food for the foreign market, has managed to increase the volume exported due to the renewal of the export agreement with Russia, mediated by the UN.

As long as the war provoked by Russia lasts, however, Ukraine’s agricultural production potential will be limited.

Brazilian exports this year are at a less intense pace due to two of the main products in the trade balance: soy and beef. Soybean exports, due to excessive rain and delay in this year’s harvest, are 8% lower than in the first three months of 2022.

19.3 million tons of oilseeds left through Brazilian ports, with revenues of US$ 10.7 billion.

The pace of exports accelerated from March, however, and should increase from now on, as the country will be able to produce 155 million tons of soybeans.

Corn will also have a strong participation in this year’s balance. Foreign sales for the first quarter amount to 9.8 million tons and are 178% higher than those for the same period in 2022. The country may, for the second time, lead world cereal exports in this harvest. The most optimistic estimates indicate foreign sales of up to 52 million tons.

The total volume of “in natura” meat exported until March totaled 1.93 million tons, 6% more than in 2022. Revenues, however, due to an international decline in average prices, remained stable.

The beef sector felt China’s absence last month. The volume “in natura” exported dropped 12% in the quarter, and revenues, 24%, according to data from Secex (Secretary of Foreign Trade). The return of China to the Brazilian market will revive exports, since the Asian country is the main importer of national protein.

If beef had less space in China, the same did not happen with pork. The return of African swine fever outbreaks to the Asian country should force the Chinese to increase imports, benefiting Brazil, one of the main suppliers of this protein to them.

This year, Brazil increased by 15% the volume of “in natura” pork exported, with a 30% increase in revenues, according to Secex data. The market is also favorable for chicken meat, whose sales increased by 18% in volume and 28% in revenue.

On the side of imports, the scenario has improved, with the reduction of international prices of inputs, although they are still above those of the period prior to the War in Ukraine.

The purchase of fertilizers fell to 7.4 million tons in the quarter, a volume 25% lower than in 2022; that of agrochemicals fell to 53 thousand tons (-53%).

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