See the quotation of the dollar and the Exchange this Monday – 05/15/2023 – Market

The dollar retreated marginally against the real at the opening of business this Monday (15), following the movement abroad before meetings of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with several ministers.

At 9:05 am, the dollar in sight retreated 0.13%, to R$ 4.91 in the sale.

At B3, at 9:05 am, the dollar futures contract for the first month fell 0.18%, at R$ 4.93.

On Friday (12), the spot dollar closed the day quoted at R$ 4.92 on sale, down 0.29%.

The Ibovespa opened with a positive bias this Monday, benefiting from the favorable environment for risk assets abroad, while the earnings season in Brazil included the results of Azul, Vibra and BB Seguridade, among others.

At 10:09 am, the Stock Exchange rose 0.44%, to 108,937.6 points, seeking the eighth consecutive increase.

At the same time, the short-term Ibovespa futures contract, on June 14, rose 0.31% to 109,985 points.

On Friday (12), the Stock Exchange and the dollar fluctuated close to stability throughout the trading session and closed the day with low variation, in a day when investor attention was focused on the request for judicial recovery from Light.

In the exchange rate, the dollar retreated 0.36%, quoted at R$ 4.922 for sale, with a drop of 1.8% in the week.

On the Stock Exchange, between small and high since the morning, the Ibovespa index managed to remain in the positive field at the end of the session to close slightly up 0.15%, at 108,423 points, marking the seventh consecutive high, on a new day of sharp rise for Petrobras shares.

In the week, the index rose 3.11%, the highest since the week of April 14, when it rose 5.4%, with financial agents starting to adopt a more positive view of the economy’s performance.

The negative highlight of the day in the market on Friday was the fall in Light’s shares, which sank 17.2%, to R$ 3.85, after the holding informed this Friday that it filed with RJ (judicial recovery) in 3rd Business Court of the State of Rio de Janeiro, claiming the need to seek a solution for debts of approximately R$ 11 billion.

The debts are concentrated in the energy distributor of the same name, but the request was presented by the holding company to circumvent legal limitations. Power distributors are prohibited by law from entering RJ.

According to Sheet As it turned out, the group is trying to get around the early collection of the concessionaire’s debts, which would even put payments for electricity operations at risk.

B3 informed this Friday that it will exclude the share of Light SA, owner of the energy distributor Light, from all its indices, after the company filed for judicial recovery. The exclusion of the nine indices of which it is a part will take place at the end of the trading session next Monday (15).

Fabiano Vaz, partner and stock analyst at Nord Research, says that, in addition to the damage to the image caused by the request for judicial recovery, the sale that funds dedicated to replicating the portfolio of indices are obliged to make contributes to the pressure on the shares of the company.

He adds that the company seeks to protect itself from creditors with the request for judicial recovery, at the same time that it must face difficulties in renewing the service concession contract in Rio de Janeiro.

On the last day of the 8th, the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, stated that companies with management problems in the distribution of electricity cannot be admitted in processes for renewing concessions.

According to the Nord analyst, if the company fails to renew the concession, it puts the very continuity of the operation at risk, which already suffers from losses related to organized crime.

Analyst at Ativa Investimentos, Ilan Arbetman recalls that, about a month ago, Light had asked the Court to freeze the payment of debts in order to draw up a plan to restructure itself financially. “Apparently, that time was not enough for the company to architect something more definitive”, says the analyst.

On the positive side, Petrobras shares, which already had significant gains on the eve before the first quarter result, closed again with outstanding valuations of around 3%.

The day before, the company reported that it had a net profit of R$ 38.156 billion in the first quarter, which corresponds to a 14.4% drop compared to the same period of the previous year. Despite the drop, the result was well above market expectations, which expected BRL 31.96 billion, according to projections compiled by Refinitiv.

According to data from TradeMap, the result represents the second highest profit in history among publicly traded companies for the period, behind only the profit of BRL 44.561 billion in the first quarter of 2022.

Attention is now turning to the dividend distribution policy, which the company intends to change by June 2023. Analysts estimate that some reduction in shareholder remuneration is likely, although the risk was not enough to prevent new share price increases this Friday .

Future interest rates rise after higher-than-expected April IPCA

In the futures interest market, the last trading session of last week was high for short-term contract rates, after the release of the IPCA (Ample National Consumer Price Index) for April. The bond for January 2024 rose from 13.25% to 13.30%, while the contract for January 2025 rose from 11.65% to 11.70%.

Official inflation in Brazil slowed to 0.61% in April, after rising 0.71% in March, according to data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

Despite losing pace, the IPCA was above market expectations with pressure from drug and food prices. At the median, analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected inflation of 0.55% in April.

With the result, the IPCA decelerated to 4.18% in the accumulated 12 months. It is the lowest level since October 2020 (3.92%). The variation was 4.65% in the accumulated until March 2023.

“The acceleration of “food at home” inflation is noteworthy, confirming the thesis of accelerating inflation of ‘in natura’ products, more than offsetting the deflation of meat”, says Darwin Dib, economist at Gauss Capital, adding that today’s result may reduce the downward trend in inflation expectations for 2023.

With Reuters