See stock exchange and dollar quotes this Thursday – 04/06/2023 – Market

The dollar rises against the real this Thursday morning (6), in the midst of high volatility before the Good Friday holiday, when an important US employment report may help to clarify the trajectory of the Federal monetary policy Reserve.

In Brazil, the reactions should be due to possible statements by members of the government, as happened this Wednesday (5th), especially on the Stock Exchange.

At 9:48 am, the spot dollar advanced 0.46%, at 5.0732 reais on sale, abandoning slight initial losses.

The Ibovespa showed little variation in the first trades this Thursday, the eve of the holiday, in the face of a slight fall in stock futures in the United States, with data from the US labor market under the spotlight.

The number of jobless claims in the US last week came in higher than the market expected, as reported this morning. On Friday, the publication of the employment report is scheduled, with the important data on vacancies outside the agricultural sector.

In Brazil, investors remain attentive to possible announcements about measures to increase government revenues. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, gives an interview to Band News TV this morning.

At 10:09 am, the Ibovespa rose 0.20% to 101,181.60 points. The index is on track to end the week down nearly 1%.

This Wednesday (5), the Stock Exchange closed down with investors reacting mainly to the announcement of a change in Petrobras’ pricing policy. According to analysts, the market is always very sensitive to any sign of political interference in state-owned companies, especially in the oil company.

The dollar also retreated, as well as interest rates, mainly influenced by data from the US economy. The numbers show a greater deceleration than expected by economists.

The Ibovespa closed the day down 0.88%, at 100,827 points. At the low of the day, the index was below 100 thousand points. The spot commercial dollar fell 0.66% to R$5.049. It is the second time in the year that the dollar has closed below R$5.05. The first time was on the 2nd of February.

Future interest rates fell, with more intensity in longer maturities. For January 2024, rates increased from 13.23% at the close of this Tuesday (4) to 13.22%. In contracts for January 2025, interest rates dropped from 11.99% to 11.96%. Upon maturity in January 2027, the rate dropped from 11.99% to 11.93%.

Statements by the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, about a change in the fuel price policy this Wednesday (5) irritated the leadership of Petrobras, which has been under attack by the ministry since the beginning of its management.

Silveira announced in an interview with Globonews that the state-owned company will change its commercial policy after the election of the new council and even coined a name for the new model, PCI (internal competitiveness price), which, according to him, would reduce the price of diesel by up to BRL 0.25 per liter.

He also said that Petrobras has to fulfill its social function and act as a cushion to cushion abrupt variations in international oil prices, such as the one motivated by the production cut announced by exporting countries on Sunday (2).

Executives heard by Sheet say they are unaware of the minister’s proposal and complain about government interference in the company, for failing to comply with internal procedures for approving and disclosing strategic decisions.

In the early afternoon, Petrobras confirmed in a note that “it has not received any proposal from the Ministry of Mines and Energy” and that any price policy proposals “will be communicated to the market in due course, and conducted by the company’s usual internal governance mechanisms”.

The company’s reaction to the minister’s statements helped the shares to reverse the downward trend shown since the beginning of the day, and eased the pressure on the Ibovespa. Petrobras’ common and preferred shares rose 0.14% and 0.32%, respectively.

But the local stock exchange is also suffering from increased concerns about a recession in the US economy.

The impacts are felt especially by exporting companies. Vale’s common stock fell almost 1.5%, and Suzano’s common stock fell more than 3%.

An American data that caught the attention of the market this Wednesday was the PMI survey of the services sector. It is measured in points, and when it is above 50, it indicates expansion. Below this level, it points to retraction.

The services PMI in March in the United States was 51.2 points, compared to 55.10 in February. The average of economists’ projections heard by Bloomberg was 54.4 points.

The labor market also registered a sharp deceleration in March. The ADP report, which shows job creation in the US private sector, registered 145,000 job openings in March, compared to 261,000 in February.

The indicators released on Wednesday lead to a greater chance, according to economists, that the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank) pause the cycle of high interest rates.

But Loretta Master, president of the Cleveland Fed, reinforced that interest rates should rise further and stay at high levels for longer, to bring inflation to the target of 2% per year. For analysts, the inflation data that will be announced next week will have important weight in the next meeting to decide on interest rates, in May.

In New York, fears that the country is close to a recession outweighed the prospect of a break in interest rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.24%. But the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes fell 0.25% and 1.07%, respectively.

With Reuters