See stock exchange and dollar quotes this Friday – 04/14/2023 – Market

After three straight falls, the dollar opens in oscillates between stability and timid falls this Friday (14). After data on inflation and the labor market stirred the markets in Brazil and the United States, sectoral indicators should give new signals about the future scenario for interest rates in both countries.

In Brazil, data for the services sector in January, surveyed by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), came out. This is a good indication of local economic activity, as the segment represents most of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

In the US, retail sales indicators for March will be released, which may give signals about the level of consumption by Americans and the behavior of inflation.

At 9:06 am (Brasília time), the spot commercial dollar retreated 0.12%, to R$ 4.9218 in the sale. On B3, at 9:06 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.11%, to R$ 4.9335.

The dollar had its third straight day of decline this Thursday (13), falling below R$ 4.90 at the low of the day. According to analysts, the situation of the American economy causes the currency to lose strength globally, and the improvement in the outlook for interest rates in Brazil leads to a more intense appreciation of the real against other currencies.

The Stock Exchange also fell this Thursday, with investors taking advantage of the more emptied local agenda to make profits. The Ibovespa rose 6% in the three previous trading sessions.

The spot commercial dollar closed down by 0.28%, at R$4.927. At the low of the day, the currency reached R$ 4.896. The Ibovespa ended the day down 0.40% to 106,457 points.

In futures markets, interest rates closed lower on longer maturities. In contracts for January 2024, the rate increased from 13.13% to 13.16%. Upon maturity in January 2025, interest dropped from 11.79% to 11.77%. For January 2027, the rate increased from 11.74% to 11.63%.

American economic indicators are at the center of market attention this Thursday, with reflections mainly on the dollar.

In the labor market, there were 239,000 new claims for unemployment insurance in the United States in the week ending April 8. The expectation of economists interviewed by Bloomberg was 235,000 new orders.

US producer prices, which measure wholesale inflation in the country, decelerated in 12 months from 4.9% in February to 2.7% in March. Economists polled by Reuters had expected annual growth of 3%. Considering the monthly variation, there was deflation of 0.5%, compared to a drop of 0.1% in February.

The data made stock indices in New York close higher, reflecting the possibility that the cycle of high interest rates will end at the next meeting of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank), in May. The Dow Jones ended the day up 1.14%. The S&P 500 rose 1.33%. The Nasdaq, more sensitive to prospects for interest rates, closed up 1.99%.

Still in relation to the dollar, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who is on an official trip to China, defended, at the inauguration ceremony of Dilma Rousseff at Banco do Brics (New Development Bank, NDB) , the expansion of trade in their own currencies by members of the institution —and even a currency from the Brics group.

“Why can’t we do our trade backed by our currency?”, he asked, to applause, as he left his written speech and improvised. “Who decided it was the dollar? We need to have a currency that transforms countries into a slightly more peaceful situation, because today a country needs to run after the dollar to export.”

Regarding interest rates in Brazil, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said this Thursday that the Central Bank has a “window of opportunity” to reduce the basic interest rate and that this measure will be necessary to, according to the minister , unlock the capital market.

“Now I want to believe that the Central Bank has a window of opportunity that I hope will be taken advantage of so that Brazil can think about sustainable economic growth”, said Haddad to journalists in Shanghai, where he accompanies President Lula in China.

The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said this Thursday that the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government needs to “improve its political gear” to get the vote on economic issues, as in the case of the new tax framework.