Ride – 08/19/2023 – Candido Bracher

July was the hottest month ever recorded in the world. A series of other climate-related records, such as the lowest level of ice cover ever recorded at this time of year in Antarctica or the highest temperature on the water surface in the North Atlantic, seem to confirm the worrying predictions of the international scientific community and reduce almost to insignificance what remains of the denialist discourse in relation to global warming.

Also in July, the result of an isolated election in the electoral constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, in Greater London, appears as a possible symptom of one of the most formidable obstacles to facing the problem: the “free ride”, an expression whose literal translation would be ” free ride”, but whose real meaning is the one we all know in the example of that colleague (possibly ourselves) who did not participate in the group work effort, but received the same grade as the others at the end.

I explain. With the resignation of Boris Johnson from his seat of MP for the Conservative Party, representing Uxbridge and South Ruislip, new elections were called. A Labor Party victory was widely expected — as, indeed, was the case in the two other districts that held elections on the same date — but the Conservatives held onto the post by a narrow margin. The explanation for Labour’s defeat, in the opinion of virtually all analysts, has four letters: Ulez.

Ulez is the English acronym for “ultra-low emission zone”. The legislation establishes that, in these zones, vehicles that do not comply with a certain maximum level of carbon dioxide emissions are subject to the payment of a fee of £ 12.5 per day (about R$ 80). This law has been applied since April 2019 to the central area of ​​London and has already been considerably expanded in October 2021, to an area that would correspond, in the city of São Paulo, to the region between the banks of the Pinheiros and Tietê rivers.

It is announced for the 29th, by the Labor mayor of the city, the expansion of the area to Greater London, including Uxbridge and South Ruislip. It is estimated that the norm, which mainly affects vehicles produced before 2006, affects 10% to 15% of the fleet in the region. It is against this background that Labor’s defeat must be understood.

Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was quick to get the ballot box’s message; a few days after the election, he announced the granting of more than one hundred new licenses for oil exploration in the North Sea. Despite the official statements to the contrary, there is no way to fail to see in the measure a serious weakening of the commitment —known as Net Zero— to zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Where does the “free ride” come in? The underlying logic of these voters and their leaders is that, being responsible for just 1% of global emissions, the UK can relax its efforts and leave the burden of leading the march towards Net Zero to the biggest emitters.

Despite being a global problem, discussed in international forums such as climate conferences, the fight against warming is implemented according to regional interests, as in the case of Uxbridge. To overcome this difficulty, it would be necessary to have a broad global agreement that would effectively commit countries to their emission reduction targets through economic mechanisms, such as setting a global price for carbon and establishing sanctions for non-compliance.

Evidences accumulated over more than 30 years of negotiations, however, indicate that this is not a realistic hypothesis. There seems to be no way to get rulers subject to elections every four years to impose burdens on their voters for decades.

With the alternative of the global agreement excluded, what hopes remain? Success in combating global warming will depend on the example of more conscious countries, which, as they succeed in their policies, could generate a double positive effect: moral persuasion on recalcitrant nations and reduction in the cost of “green technologies” as they gain scale, facilitating its adoption. That is why the retreat of the United Kingdom, which until then counted among the “conscious nations”, is so worrying.

A reading of the Net Zero plans of the EU (European Union), Japan, South Korea and Australia shows that there are countries seriously committed to their goals, which seek to influence the rest of the world by whatever means possible without, however, conditioning their commitment that others will also fulfill theirs.

The case of the EU is emblematic. It created financial and administrative barriers to ensure that the products offered in its markets comply with the same standards imposed on its domestic producers, while at the same time implementing strict internal measures, such as, for example, the ban on domestic flights in France between cities served by fast trains. .

Meanwhile, it is expected in Brazil the disclosure of a broad Ecological Transition Plan, involving the participation of seven ministries and investments in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

After the great frustration of the absence of concrete targets for ending deforestation at the Amazon Summit, which took place earlier this month in Belém, this announcement would be an excellent step towards aligning Brazil —which has not yet published its carbon plan neutral and was until recently considered a pariah on the environmental issue—to the most committed nations. It is always good to remember that we would be serving our own interests, since we are one of the countries that have the most to gain from the low carbon cycle.

It will be even better if, while the United Kingdom grants new licenses, Brazil demonstrates political determination to follow the guidance of environmental bodies in relation to oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon River.

The time is serious. The containment of climate disaster depends on the convincing power that conscious nations can exercise through example. May Brazil count among those who convince, not among those who need to be convinced.

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