Research with parliamentarians points out favorites to lead the right

A survey carried out with parliamentarians of the National Congress shows that the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) is appointed as the main leader of the country’s conservative wing. More than half of the deputies consulted and 30% of the senators see Tarcísio as the main name to replace Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the 2026 elections, given the impossibility of the former president to run after the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) made him ineligible .

The survey on the parliamentary world’s view of Bolsonaro’s successor was carried out by Ranking dos Politicians. Among parliamentarians from the right, center and left, 102 federal deputies were interviewed, representing 21 different parties, and 21 senators, belonging to 13 different parties. The full report is here (in PDF).

In addition to Tarcísio, the governors of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), and of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo) appear among the favorites among deputies and senators. Leite was the most cited among left-wing parliamentarians.

Former first lady Michele Bolsonaro was also highlighted and is ahead, including Bolsonaro’s son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, in the perception of members of the National Congress.

Despite the possibility of being left out of the next election as a candidate, Bolsonaro’s role will still have great relevance. The assessment is that the former president should lead the process of choosing his successor on the Brazilian right.

Tarcísio is the strongest name among deputies and senators

The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, is the name indicated by 51% of the deputies and 30% of the senators interviewed as the person most likely to succeed the right. Despite having been the protagonist of a recent fight with the PL deputies, due to his position in favor of tax reform, Tarcísio is evaluated as a successor with a high capacity to lead the right by 55% of the right-wing deputies interviewed by the Ranking dos Politicians.

Tarcísio’s reach is not greater only due to his lack of an ideological position. More conservative supporters say he needs to be more firm and aligned with Bolsonarist guidelines, especially in matters of customs, such as the defense of life and gender ideology. Without this position, the governor of São Paulo could be harmed and Bolsonaro’s support could go to whoever is more committed to conservatism.

Governor of Rio Grande do Sul is most quoted among left-wing parliamentarians

The Ranking of Politicians survey shows that the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), is number two on the list of potential candidates to succeed Jair Bolsonaro as leader of the opposition. This perception is shared both in the Chamber of Deputies (13.7%) and in the Senate (25%).

However, observing his assessment among the political groups, Eduardo Leite’s capacity is identified as low/remote by 82% of right-wing deputies and 60% of right-wing senators. Among left-wing deputies, 44% consider Leite to have a high/probable capacity. In the Senate, 60% of respondents think that Eduardo Leite has a high capacity to succeed Bolsonaro.

Michelle appears tied with Zema, but political skills are considered low

The former first lady, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), and the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), appear tied. Both have a 15% chance of succeeding Bolsonaro, in the opinion of senators. Zema, however, has a greater advantage in the perception of the deputies, where 12.7% believe that he has more conditions to lead the right.

The perception of parliamentarians about Zema’s capacity is mostly positive, with 36.3% in the Chamber and 45% in the Senate, while the negative evaluation is, respectively, 24.5% and 15%.

Although Zema has recently stated that he prefers to “support than be supported”, his name has grown, especially on social networks, after Tarcísio’s clash with the PL on tax reform. After the episode, Zema has been demonstrating an appetite for higher flights, also influenced by the impossibility of running for re-election, as he is in his second term.

Michelle Bolsonaro’s political skills are considered low by 65% ​​of deputies and 31.6% of senators. In the Chamber, the positive assessment is only 11.8%, while in the Senate it is higher, reaching 21.1%.

Michelle’s political stance began to be explored in last year’s presidential campaign, when she assumed a leading role in winning votes from the evangelical and female electorate. This year, despite her husband not being re-elected, Michelle has received great attention from the PL. At events across Brazil, she has been one of the main voices of the party, especially when leading PL Mulher.

Jair Bolsonaro should lead the process of choosing the right-wing candidate

With the decision of the TSE, to make Bolsonaro ineligible for the next 8 years, the right has sought to strengthen names that can replace him at the polls in 2026. Bolsonaro, however, has avoided declaring who will have his support in the next presidential elections and said that “it’s not fair that someone already wants to share my spoils”. “I’m in the ICU, I haven’t died yet”, said the former president in an interview with Jovem Pan after the TSE’s decision.

Despite this, the former president has cited names as positive leaders, such as governors Tarcísio de Freitas, highlighting him as leader of the largest Brazilian state, and Romeu Zema.