“Real politics” is a challenge for Bolsonaro to elect 60% of right-wing mayors

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) returned to Brazil committed to electing a thousand mayors for his party and willing to contribute to the election of at least another 2,340 mayors from the Republicans, PP and Novo. The sum of 3,340 municipalities corresponds to 60% of the country’s municipalities, an ambitious goal signaled on the day he returned to Brazil, after spending three months in the United States.

Some allies believe that the objective is possible to be achieved, but there are those who understand that this may be just an intention, due to the challenges of “real politics”.

“Real life is very different from the life of discourse and social networks. The mayoral election demands a lot of commitment, commitment, work from state leaders and I think it will influence very little in the mayoral elections next year”, analyzes the federal deputy Aluísio Mendes (Republicanos-MA), president of his party’s state directory and former deputy leader of the government in the Chamber during the Bolsonaro administration. “I think the [ex-]president Bolsonaro does not know how to do day-to-day politics”, he adds.

Mendes recalls that in the 2020 municipal elections, when Bolsonaro was still president, few of his allies were successful at the polls. Of 16 mayoral candidates supported by him, five were elected over the two rounds. In the capitals, only one of the seven was elected.

At the time, Bolsonaro downplayed the results and attributed the defeats of allies to the short time he had to ask for support. He said his help “came down to four lives for a total of three hours”. Allies also mitigated the failure and attributed the results to circulation limitations due to the Covid-19 pandemic, opposition accusations and press coverage.

Without the Covid-19 pandemic in 2024 and outside the Presidency, Bolsonaro’s allies understand that, now, he will be more successful in the municipal elections. However, even the most optimistic recognize that it is not a simple process and that the result will depend on the political agenda built by the former president and the level of trust given to allies and candidates for mayors and councilors.

Bolsonaro will have to rely on regional allies

With 5,568 city halls in the country, allies admit that it will be impossible for Bolsonaro to fulfill agendas in every city in the country in support of the candidate for local mayor and councilors. Therefore, to reach the target of 60% of city halls with candidates from the right, the former president will need to trust as many allies in the states to be his interlocutors and emissaries who will be responsible for relaying his support in as many municipalities as possible.

The point, however, is that this may not be something simple for Bolsonaro, admit allies. When he was still president, he did not hide the discomfort of having been “betrayed” and even nominally accused some former allies in the 2018 elections of “betrayal”, such as the former governor of São Paulo João Doria (PSDB) and some parliamentarians from the former PSL, such as former deputy Joice Hasselmann (SP).

Federal deputy Sargento Fahur (PSD-PR) understands that it is possible for Bolsonaro to elect 60% of right-wing mayors, but maintains that, for that, the former president will have to select trusted allies to help him map candidates with potential and political affinity in the conservative field.

Deputy Joaquim Passarinho (PL-PA) believes that Bolsonaro will make good choices and may have more peace of mind to trust allies for the 2024 municipal elections. “Now it is easier to trust because he is in the opposition and has nothing to offer, only his name. It has no structure, government, nothing. Anyone who wants to lean on him now will be picking a fight with the current government”, he comments.

In the analysis made by Passarinho, mayors who will run for election (or re-election) supported by Bolsonaro may face opponents supported by parties from the ruling base of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and even suffer retaliation through the transfer of amendment funds parliamentarians to city halls.

The deputy comments that in Pará, for example, the PL is already the target of interest from allies who look for the party to dispute the municipal elections due to disagreements or opposition with the state governor, Helder Barbalho (MDB), who concentrates the support of the most parties, including those supporting Lula’s base. “The possibility of the PL increasing its mayoral staff is very great”, he reinforces.

To guarantee Bolsonaro’s “support network” in the largest number of municipalities, allies point to social networks as a key instrument to ensure effectiveness in political strategies and in the goal of electing the largest possible number of mayors. Deputy Joaquim Passarinho points out that videos recorded with Bolsonaro can be important tools to spread support throughout the country.

Travel and willingness will be decisive to elect mayors from the base

The travel schedule that Bolsonaro plans to take will have a fundamental weight in the election of mayors from the PL and other parties, maintains deputy Paulo Bilynskyj (PL-SP). “He will travel and attract people, he will increase the number of party members and solidify the candidates”, he says, noting the 58 million votes that Bolsonaro cast in the 2022 elections.

The ally understands that the former president is well advised and well-acclimated in the party to know who he can trust or not, and he believes that this is reflected in the willingness and possibility of electing mayors not only from the PL, but also from the PP and Republicans.

Deputy Evair Vieira de Melo (PP-ES), deputy leader of his party, assesses that the composition of the Republicans in the Chamber, with parties that support Lula’s ruling base, or even the PP, which joined left-wing parties in House, does not interfere with Bolsonaro’s intention to support candidates from both parties.

“His Republicans [Bolsonaro] and the [governador] Tarcísio [de Freitas]in São Paulo”, he says. “He will make an integration [de apoio aos partidos]hit with the [senador] Cyrus [Nogueira, ex-ministro-chefe da Casa Civil] and the PP, and there is still the PL, Republicans and the New”, adds Evair.

Deputy Marcel van Hattem (Novo-RS), first deputy leader of the opposition in the Chamber, believes that Bolsonaro can be an important electoral force for many right-wing candidates, but maintains that he will not be the only one to contribute. “Other relevant political figures in Brazil will do the same. Tarcísio will do it, Zema [governador de Minas Gerais], from our party, will do. I’ll do my best too.”

The important thing, continues Van Hattem, is that the country reaches more mayors and more councilors who follow the ideas of economic liberalism and conservatism rather than “possible political figures”. “Which does not mean that the impact of a national political leadership in a local election is irrelevant. That goes for Bolsonaro and like so many other figures who will be working there in the next elections”, he evaluates.

Performance of the Lula government will also influence

Social networks, the travel schedule and Bolsonaro’s greater confidence in allies may be important for the success of the election of conservative mayors, but the performance of the Lula government also needs to be taken into account, evaluates deputy Aluísio Mendes.

In the hypothesis of success of the Lula government and of a good behavior of the economic conjuncture, the tide could turn in favor of candidates of the PT and of other parties of the base, evaluates Mendes. Deputy Sergeant Fahur agrees with the analysis.

“It will depend a little on the performance of the federal government in the coming months until the elections. From the look of the carriage, Bolsonaro will have an easier time because the government, in my opinion, is being disastrous. But it is also possible that the government will take a turn and then will have his strength and machine to use”, he comments.