PP, União Brasil and Avante prepare federation – 02/11/2023 – Power

The summits of Progressistas, União Brasil and Avante want to close a federation between the three parties in the next few days. With the agreement, the bench in the Chamber should have 115 deputies, taking into account the parliamentarians currently in office.

If it comes to fruition, the federation could become the largest bench in the House, surpassing the PL of former president Jair Bolsonaro, which has 99 parliamentarians.

An obstacle to the conclusion of the agreement, however, is the search for a solution to regional adjustments that still need to be sewn – some PP and União Brasil parliamentarians are skeptical about the creation of the federation.

This is because the federation requires joint party action for at least four years at the municipal, state and national levels, which includes electoral disputes during this period.

In addition to strengthening in Congress, the federation would give more weight to the acronyms in negotiations for elections in the coming years.

The mayor himself, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is committed to making the federation work. He told interlocutors this week that the alliance should get off the ground. It remains to do the regional seams for each state.

On Friday (10), Lira confirmed that there is a movement in the summits of the three subtitles for the federation to materialize.

“These are important parties, with expressive benches. In case it occurs and becomes effective [o acordo] will also make a balanced contribution so that the electorate, the states and the Brazilian population can more easily follow the performance of each federation”, said Lira to journalists, after participating in an event in Espírito Santo.

According to him, the formation of federations also facilitates the “procedure of matters with the construction of consensus closer to the Brazilian population”.

According to parliamentarians, the president of the PP, Ciro Nogueira, discussed with the party’s party in the Senate about the negotiation for the creation of the federation. The senators did not object.

Senator Esperidião Amin (PP-SC) told the Sheet that “the federation is at the stage of marriage banns”.

Since September 2022, PP and União Brasil have been discussing joint action. Initially, the proposal was for the parties to merge into one. The idea caused a series of disagreements in the states, since in many of them politicians of the two acronyms are opponents.

The federation was the way found to reduce the regional impact of the joint action of the parties, since it does not completely nullify the structures of the subtitles that compose it.

In order to resolve the impasse, the party summits are discussing a criterion for the distribution of forces in the states.

In states where the governor is affiliated with one of the three parties, the group allied with the head of the state executive will have precedence in defining the president of the directory. This is the case of Goiás, whose governor, Ronaldo Caiado, is from União Brasil.

In regions where the federation does not have a governor, precedence will be defined by the number of senators. If there is a tie, the last criterion will be the number of deputies elected in the state.

The criterion did not please everyone. In Pernambuco, for example, there is a space dispute between Luciano Bivar (União Brasil), Mendonça Filho (União Brasil) and Dudu da Fonte (PP). In Bahia, Cacá Leão (PP) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) also have clashes.

An escape from the rule must occur in Minas Gerais, which, according to reports made to the Sheet, should be the only state commanded by Avante. This would have been a condition presented by the national president of the legend himself, Luís Tibé, in the process of building the federation.

The process of assembling the federation has been led by the leader of União Brasil in the Chamber, deputy Elmar Nascimento (BA); the vice-president of the party, Antônio Rueda; Ciro Nogueira and Arthur Lira.

Tibé entered the negotiations recently. Avante’s entry into the federation is a way for the party to survive politically in the face of the small group it elected (seven deputies).

The details of the federation have been discussed by lawyers from the three parties. The expectation is that a regulation will be drawn up in the next few days for the conclusion of the process.

Despite Avante being part of the support base of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government and having already supported the president during the electoral campaign, PT members heard by the Sheet claim that the adhesion of the acronym to União Brasil and the PP would not be a negative signal for the government.

The main exponent of Avante is deputy André Janones (MG), who played a prominent role in the communication strategy of then-candidate Lula on social networks.

These sources point out that PP and União Brasil do not have unified benches, that is, they already have parliamentarians who support Lula and others who are in opposition. In this sense, the federation would not represent an opposition bloc to the government.

The minister of the Institutional Relations Secretariat, Alexandre Padilha, affirms that the federations “help to structure the political debate in the country and with the government”.

“I, particularly, think it’s very good that the parties organize themselves into federations. If this succeeds, it will be well received. And we have had an excellent dialogue with the leaders of these parties”, said Padilha to Sheet.

With reservation, a PT leader reinforces Padilha’s vision and says that the eventual federation would facilitate communication with the government, since it would concentrate the dialogue with fewer political actors.

There is also an assessment among parliamentarians that the use of federations will be increasingly frequent in view of the parties’ need for survival.

One of the reasons is the concern of the parties to overcome the barrier clause, a mechanism that establishes a minimum percentage of votes and elected deputies to maintain access to party propaganda and the electoral fund.

As of the 2030 elections, each party must have at least 3% of the votes for the Federal Chamber, with at least 2% in nine states of the federation —or elect at least 15 federal deputies.

Furthermore, in the evaluation of party leaders, the federation would give more power to the parties to gain more space in the government and in Congress, in addition to strengthening them in the electoral disputes of the next four years.