Planalto sees base with 198 deputies and closes agreement with Lira – 05/27/2023 – Bruno Boghossian

The government faced another week in deficit in the Chamber. On the fourth floor of the Planalto, the political articulation team was measuring the allied base: according to the map, Lula would have the support of 198 deputies in the plenary —131 from leftist parties and 67 “firm votes” from parties such as the MDB, PSD and Union Brazil.

After almost six months, the PT remains far from the 257 seats that represent half of the House and even further away from the 308 to approve changes to the Constitution. He doesn’t have the strength to avoid defeats in simple projects, such as the restructuring of ministries, or approving the fiscal framework alone.

The victory in the discussion of the new spending rule was the milestone of an arrangement made by the government to improve its chances in Congress. Planalto signed a long-term contract with Arthur Lira to obtain an extra batch of votes on Lula’s agenda. In return, the Speaker of the House regained control of part of the Budget.

The core of the government adapted its projections to this consortium. In important proposals, Lula is part of the 198 faithful deputies, and Lira delivers at least 100 votes from the centrão, fueled by the political machine of the president of the Chamber.

Lira has already regained power over the amount he distributed in the form of rapporteur amendments until December, when the mechanism was prohibited by the STF. Now, advisors to the president of the Chamber have again received requests from deputies to share the billions that will be distributed by Lula’s ministries.

Not every project enters the agreement. Lira warned the government that he will not round up deputies on matters he considers ideological, such as the review of the economic agenda approved by the Chamber in recent years.

Planalto sought survival, but the agreement has a high risk. With it, the government keeps the Budget’s business desk active, strengthens Lira and gives the deputy a decisive role in the political operation of the government, but only as long as he is interested in this game.

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