PL targets restructuring and “tests” of Bolsonaro’s strength in the opposition

The Liberal Party (PL) elaborates a new structure to conduct what the summit defines as a “democratic opposition” to the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and consolidate itself as the largest right-wing party in Brazil. Within this reformulation, the creation of new directories and the contracting of a consultancy to assist the inspection of the federal government are foreseen. Also under analysis are the contracting of quantitative and qualitative research in relation to former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

The idea of ​​the caption is to strengthen the current structures and expand them, like the communication itself, which may undergo a process of reformulation. It is in this process that the party does not rule out hiring polls to test Bolsonaro’s name at the head of the opposition process, according to leaders in Congress and interlocutors at the top of the table. People’s Gazette.

The party understands that it is necessary to carry out qualitative and quantitative research to know the real dimension of Bolsonaro’s political strength and his “root” electoral base, even to outline the paths that the party will follow from now on within its communication and articulation strategic.

It is common for parties to hire specialized institutes to carry out internal surveys and there is great doubt about Bolsonaro’s political capital. Internally, the PL is divided between coreligionists who understand that the former president should lead the opposition as the main name and others who disagree and defend a “plan B” disassociated from the former chief executive.

Among the alternatives considered in the “plan B” are Romeu Zema (New Party), Ratinho Júnior (PSD) and Bolsonaro’s own wife, Michelle, whose name has been gaining strength. This Tuesday (20) she assumes the Women’s Bill at a ceremony in Brasília.

Internal surveys can, therefore, help the party to give an answer to its cadres on the directions and strategic guidelines that can be adopted. The most likely scenario, however, is that Bolsonaro actively participates as the main electoral force and main name of the opposition at the head of the PL, even if he is not the candidate for the presidential race in 2026.

One possibility taken into account is that the Justice eventually determines the former president’s ineligibility in any of the lawsuits that run against him. The recent controversy over the entry into Brazil of Saudi jewelry destined for Bolsonaro in 2021 has reinforced the party’s fears that its opponents will maneuver to try to prevent the former president from running.

The PL commissioned a quantitative survey on the electoral scenario in the city of Rio de Janeiro, which suggests that Bolsonaro’s close allies start with at least 20% of the voting intentions. The internal survey received shows the current mayor of Rio, Eduardo Paes (PSD), with 30% of the votes. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) appears with 26%. In another scenario, federal deputy Eduardo Pazuello (PL-RJ) appears with 24%.

The goal is to move forward with the restructuring process as of March, as the PL’s resources begin to be released with the amounts already paid according to the updated calculation of the party fund. Party calculations suggest that the party will receive around BRL 213 million per year from the party fund.

The resources were blocked between November and February by decision of Minister Alexandre de Moraes, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The Electoral Justice informed, in February of this year, that the PL paid the fine of R$ 22.9 million.

PL predicts reception of 10,000 people on Bolsonaro’s return to Brazil

Another factor that can “test” Bolsonaro’s prestige is his reception to Brazil. On social networks, there is a movement to call the population to the streets to welcome the former president, when he returns to Brazil. There is a possibility that he will return to the country between the end of March and April.

The PL became aware of this organization of the population on social networks and believes that it may have a membership of at least 10,000 people for the day it returns. Bolsonaro allies admit that there is movement and expectation for this reception. Privately, a conservative leader claims that organizers of street movements are considering an event in São Paulo for the former president.

However, the hammer is not yet beaten and it is uncertain whether Bolsonaro will have a popular reception entourage or take to the streets at an event organized by conservatives. In any case, the national president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, is enthusiastic about mobilizations on social media.

The leader of the PL understands that Bolsonaro still has a lot of prestige and popular support. Those closest to him do not rule out the possibility that the former president has lost part of his political capital, but Costa Neto analyzes that he still has the capacity for social mobilization capable of dragging thousands of people to the streets.

PL wants travel schedule for Bolsonaro across the country

The possibility of welcoming Bolsonaro supporters upon his return would therefore be a good test for the travel schedule that Costa Neto prepares for the former president. The leader of the PL created a state-by-state map and outlined Bolsonaro’s presence in all municipalities with more than 200,000 inhabitants as a goal until next year’s municipal elections.

Costa Neto estimates that Bolsonaro will be an important electoral force for the party’s aspirations: to elect 1,000 mayors in 2024. The calculation takes into account the proportion of around 20% of the PL bench in the Chamber of Deputies. The party elected 99 of the 513 federal deputies, equivalent to 19.3%.

“Only with the number of deputies we have, we have to reach a thousand [prefeitos]. With the work that we can do and that Bolsonaro can do in the election, we can go beyond that”, said Costa Neto, on March 1, after a meeting with the party’s bench in the Chamber. In the most optimistic scenario, he thinks that could elect up to 1,500 mayors, say interlocutors.

For this, Costa Neto points out that the former president is a fundamental cog. “We want Bolsonaro to visit our cities. We have observed that he has not lost prestige. He will be a very important person in the municipal elections next year”, he declared. The idea is that Bolsonaro travels the country as honorary president of the PL.

PL will launch observatory to monitor government and help opposition to Lula

Bolsonaro and Costa Neto have had close contact, even with the former president still in the United States. The two communicate via text message or WhatsApp phone calls on a weekly basis. They comment on news from the national political scene and also on the directions of the PL.

One of the actions debated between the two is the proposal of an observatory to monitor the conduct of the Lula government. The expectation is that the PL launches the tool soon. The party is in contact with specialists who will be in charge of analyzing the government’s actions and will also propose legislative proposals for the two benches in Congress.

The idea of ​​the observatory is to enable the PL to promote a strategic opposition and hold a macro discussion on all government actions and how to respond to measures. That is, the goal is not only to intensify inspection, but also to propose a deeper debate and present solutions to the country.

The articulation of the PL has generated enthusiasm from top to bottom of the party. The restructuring in search of the professionalization of the caption even foresees the hiring of consultants in the area of ​​intelligence to have information, data and adopt strategic plans in Congress and in the rest of the country, even to give greater support to state directories.

In a reserved condition, a leader of the party in Congress says that the opposition is still very thoughtful about moral issues, but understands that the observatory will help qualify this performance. The observatory is seen as an important party-political instrument to support some priority agendas for the party.

In a note about the meeting of the party’s bench in the Chamber, the parliamentarians highlight the support for the installation of the Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the acts of vandalism on January 8, “including on the accountability of the current government”.

The bench also took a stand against media regulation and defended broad and unrestricted freedom of expression on social networks. In addition, the parliamentarians were also “concerned” with the accusations against various members of the government, such as the Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho.

The deputies point out that the focus now is to make a “structured, firm and constructive opposition”, with “concrete” proposals for the population and “requiring responses from the current government and thinking about the Brazil that we want and are building”. The bench in the Chamber was also against the tax increase on fuel, considered an important legacy of the Bolsonaro government to be defended, and reaffirmed the defense of conservative values ​​and a liberal economic policy.

The deputies also highlighted the expectation of “consolidating party unity and presenting propositional agendas, respecting political and regional diversity, which are hallmarks of the Liberal Party”. This last section is a response to the guidance that deputies may be free to position themselves in the Chamber, even if divided. One wing, for example, favors voting with the government.

PL wants to expand directories and have a closer connection with society

Within the strategic process of the new structure of the summit for the states, the PL wants to increase the number of directories. The party has national and state female directories, the PL Mulher, and the one for young people, the PL Jovem. The idea is to have more thematic fronts to promote a dialogue with society.

Federal deputy Bia Kicis (PL-DF), president of the party’s district directory, previously expressed to the People’s Gazette the party’s intention to mobilize work at the electoral bases with directories focused on entrepreneurship, health and even transport, in addition to those already existing for women and young people.

Interlocutors of the PL also affirm that the formulation of directories for Christians and agribusiness is under consideration. The objective is to promote movements that represent the party more and help build engagement between the party and society. The project has been debated between Costa Neto and General Braga Netto, who acts as a coordinator and consultant in the process of restructuring the acronym.

The new directories will be created as pilot projects to test engagement with voters. Interlocutors say that the idea is the result of Bolsonaro’s own experience in listening to society more. The former president, by the way, seeks inspiration from the good experiences of the Republican Party in the United States.

Structuring of the PL dispels fears about federation between PP and União Brasil

Due to the whole process of new structuring, the hypothesis of a party federation between PP and União Brasil does not haunt the PL leadership. The analysis is that the two parties seek this alignment to face the organization promoted by Costa Neto. The chief of the party, however, does not even believe that the federation will get off the ground.

The party federation between PP and União Brasil is complex due to the various state interests of the party, although leaders of both parties demonstrate optimism that the articulation will be successful. The discourse between them is that the tops have a lot of influence and power over the bases, which could enshrine the agreement.

Even if the federation comes to fruition, Costa Neto understands that no party will take away the strength of the PL until the 2026 elections, not least because of the feeling that, when Bolsonaro returns to Brazil and starts his travel agenda, he will return in a context of wear and tear. of the Lula government.

The perception in the PL is that the federal government itself has given “ammunition” to Bolsonaro and the party in Congress and in the states to oppose Lula. Starting with the re-encumbrance of fuels and the scandals involving the Ministers of Communications, Juscelino Filho, and of Tourism, Daniela Carneiro.