PL optimistic about Bolsonaro’s trial; opposition fears ineligibility

Despite the judgment at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which will define whether or not former president Jair Bolsonaro will be ineligible or not, the Liberal Party (PL) is working with the possibility of a decision favorable to the former president. However, opposition parliamentarians consider the trial as a certain defeat. Bolsonaro is accused of abuse of political power and the media due to the meeting with ambassadors in 2022.

This Tuesday (20), Bolsonaro met with the president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, and with General Walter Braga Netto (PL), at the party’s headquarters, in Brasília. According to the president of the party, the meeting revolved around political alignment for the future. “It was an important meeting in which we were able to outline clear strategies about the future we want and how we are going to conquer it”, said the politician.

The meeting was a sign that the party is studying scenarios if the TSE imposes ineligibility on the former president. One of them will be to use Bolsonaro to unify the right and attract votes in municipal elections. The acronym has already said that it will work to elect between 1,000 and 1,300 mayors in various regions.

Despite a certain optimism on the part of the party in achieving a favorable decision at the TSE, members of the opposition in Congress are skeptical in relation to the judgment, since most ministers of the current composition of the Electoral Court were appointed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT ).

“I don’t have the expectation that there will be a favorable decision. But the president will continue as leader within the party and having the right to contribute to the political activity of the party”, said deputy Bia Kicis (PL-DF).

The second vice-president of the Chamber of Deputies, deputy Sóstenes Cavalcanti (PL-RJ), questioned the TSE’s partiality in judging Bolsonaro because of the meeting with ambassadors. “Rupture of the democratic hymen if the TSE leaves President Bolsonaro ineligible without any crime. Can the TSE dialogue with ambassadors, as the President of the Republic cannot? What deformed democracy is this?”, criticized the parliamentarian.

Along the same lines, senator Eduardo Girão (Novo-CE) criticized the court’s conduct for the decision against former deputy Deltan Dallagnol and also showed skepticism in relation to a decision favorable to the former president. “Anything can happen, since the law is not observed. We saw what happened to the [Deltan] Dallagnol. I mean, jurisprudence is not observed and the judgment ends up being due to the political moment. It’s a political court”, opined the senator.

Bolsonaro: “it is almost unanimous that I will lose”

Commenting on the trial at the TSE, former president Jair Bolsonaro stated that, “nowadays, it is almost unanimous that I will lose the case. This is a truth, ”he said. The statement was given in an interview with CNN Brazil this Wednesday (21). He also said he had no regrets about meeting the ambassadors last year.

Earlier, on Saturday (17), Bolsonaro also admitted that “the indicators are not good”, implying that he considers the possibility of becoming ineligible. “We are facing a problem now. Even a condemnation of ineligibility because I met with ambassadors before the election period. We are going to face it on the 22nd now, we already know that the indicatives are not good, but I am calm”, said at an event one of affiliation of mayors to the PL in the city of Jundiaí.

But, upon arriving at the Senate, this Wednesday morning (21), the former president said he hoped that the TSE would take into account the decision that the Court itself took, in 2017, involving the ticket of President Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Michel Fear (MDB). He recalled that the accusation he suffers, of meeting with ambassadors, is the same imputed to the former president and, therefore, jurisprudence should be respected.

“I met with the ambassadors in June, outside the electoral period, and I exercised a function that is the exclusive competence of the President of the Republic”, he said. According to him, the orientation of the diplomats continued to be to immediately recognize the winner of the elections.

Bolsonaro also recalled that the score in favor of Dilma, from 4 to 3, had as the decisive vote that of Minister Gilmar Mendes, who expressed that it was not “the case of the TSE canceling the mandate of anyone, much less the President of the Republic”. “It would be up to Minister Alexandre de Moraes to follow what other presidents of the court have decided, to acquit me and file the process”, he opined.

alleged request for views

Throughout the week, the expectation was that an alleged request for views from Minister Kassio Nunes Marques in the trial on Bolsonaro’s ineligibility circulated behind the scenes of the court. However, the magistrate told the UOL that action would be “pure speculation”. “I have never discussed this matter with anyone; pure speculation,” said the minister.

Although scheduled for Thursday, the trial could be extended to the 26th and 27th of June. The expectation is that the session will be extended to these days.

Paths in case of Bolsonaro’s ineligibility

Upon returning to Brazil in March, after four months in the United States, Bolsonaro focused on strengthening the Liberal Party (PL) for the next elections. Since his arrival, the former president has attended several party events, such as the affiliation of former Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga, and settled in Brasília to create greater contact with the PL’s base in Congress.

The former president’s political activity indicates that his action will be to articulate the party to conquer spaces in other states.

On June 14, the party announced that it will launch former Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello to the João Pessoa City Hall. It was also announced that federal deputy André Fernandes will run for Mayor of Fortaleza.

The acronym should also use the president’s image in the next general elections, scheduled for 2026. Initially, it was speculated that former first lady Michele Bolsonaro could take her husband’s place in the presidential race, but the hypothesis was discarded and now the legend considers launching it to the Senate.

Some members of the PL argue that the party should support the governor of São Paulo and former Minister of Infrastructure, Tarcísio de Gomes Freitas, in the presidential race. However, the former representative understands that the current governor must run for re-election in São Paulo.

Names like those of governors Romeu Zema, from Minas Gerais, and Carlos Massa Ratinho Jr., from Paraná, also circulated as the opposition’s “Plan B” to face Lula in 2026. So far, there is no favorite name for the dispute.

When talking about 2026, Bolsonaro said that the next presidential elections will be “calm”, due to the composition of the TSE. “In 2026, the composition of the TSE will be different. The president will be Kassio Nunes [Marques]. Vice will be Andre [Mendonça]. By coincidence, I nominated both. Let’s have a smooth election,” she said.