PL discusses “plan B” without Bolsonaro as leader and candidate in 2026

The Liberal Party (PL), of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is already discussing the future of the party without him as the main leader and candidate for the Presidency of the Republic in 2026. The conversations are still informal, without any political strategy regarding names and how make a candidacy viable, but they do not occur without the knowledge of the former head of the federal Executive.

On the contrary: with Bolsonaro’s endorsement, interlocutors of the former president and those around his family began conversations for the construction of a “plan B” for the party. The objective is to avoid political isolation led by leaders of the right who fear the dehydration of the conservative political field in the 2026 elections after the acts of vandalism in Praça dos Três Poderes, in Brasília.

Some leaders of the PP and the Republicans — who supported Bolsonaro’s reelection — and of the PL itself support the construction of a right wing disassociated from the former president. The isolation sponsored by these wings gains even more strength as the left has acted to hold Bolsonaro responsible for the acts on January 8, including under the allegation that he tried to carry out a coup d’état.

Two sources close to Bolsonaro claim that he himself does not rule out the possibility of becoming ineligible due to movements led by the left, mainly due to the blind eye and even consent of some conservative and more pragmatic leaders of center and center-right parties. . The risk of convictions in the Judiciary is even one of the reasons why Bolsonaro has not yet decided on his return to Brazil.

The former president understands, however, that even ineligible and out of the political scenario, he would continue to be a fundamental player on the right and, therefore, gave the green light for the construction of an alternative to the PL. “There is a plan B, but with the endorsement and participation of the [ex-]president, not disassociated from him”, sustains an interlocutor.

According to the source, the conversations are still informal, but at Bolsonaro’s request. “The moment is not to hold a meeting to formally talk about the subject, but there is already a thought of the surroundings of the [ex-]president that you need to have this plan B and that it be the [Romeu] Zema [governador de Minas Gerais] or the mouse [Júnior, governador do Paraná]”, he says. The former president’s current understanding of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), is that he should go for re-election and not risk losing São Paulo, a vital state for the right-wing project.

Bolsonaro has no preference for one of the governors and would be willing to support whoever is better able to do so over the next few years. Those around the former president understand that Zema is taking the lead for the electoral spoils of the most “rooted” electorate by suggesting that the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) turned a blind eye to being a “victim” in acts of vandalism, but the analysis is that it is still too early to establish favoritism for the right.

The understanding of Bolsonaro’s interlocutors is that an early confrontation with Lula, at the beginning of his term, could generate bonuses and burdens for Zema’s political capital, and this keeps Ratinho Júnior on the radar as an option. “That’s why it’s important to have two names to work with. Whoever becomes more viable and has more chances on the national scene will receive the support of the [ex-]president,” says one of the sources in the political circle.

What is the thinking of the PL on building the right without Bolsonaro

The movement endorsed by Bolsonaro finds resonance at the top of his party. The national president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, wants to launch a competitive candidate in 2026 who can unite the forces of the right. The representative is one of the main enthusiasts of the idea and has the support of different leaders in the party.

Leaders of the acronym are divided, however, on the idea that Bolsonaro has any role or influence in the process of rebuilding the right. Some even understand that the former president ceased to be a reference for the right when he left the country for the United States and has little political capital to transfer.

The PL is divided between three wings: a more pragmatic one, which is in favor of a neutral relationship with Lula; one that wants to defend the conservatism that has been unleashed on the former president; and another who wants to keep Bolsonaro’s legacy alive and mitigate the loss of his political capital.

The conservative and pragmatic wings bring together leaders who are in favor of Bolsonaro’s isolation and advocate leading the reconstruction of the right by themselves, mainly due to fear of retaliation by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) if the party chooses to grant some position of power to the former president, as the office of honorary president offered to him.

Despite these internal disagreements, Valdemar is unwilling to disregard Bolsonaro from the right-wing reorganization process. The President of the PL is grateful to the former President of the Republic and has no intention of eliminating him from political discussions. The party representative understands, however, that the right is greater than Bolsonaro and that he cannot be responsible for leading the right.

“Bolsonaro is an important player, but he is not the only one on the right. The PL is not looking for names yet, but it will make a move to try to unite those from the center, center-right and right in a single project”, affirms a leadership of the party in the Chamber close to Valdemar.

What the PL summit thinks about Zema and Ratinho for 2026

As it has a bench of 15 senators and 99 federal deputies, the analysis at the PL summit is that the party has the best conditions to concentrate in its party cadre the best names to lead the conservative political field until 2026 and that a name affiliated with the legend might emerge from current informal conversations.

The current priority of the PL is the election of the President of the Senate, but, in reserved conversations at the summit, a name that has been mentioned as a “plan B” to lead the right in 2026 is that of Romeu Zema (Novo). The governor of Minas Gerais was invited at the end of last year by Valdemar to join the party.

Affiliation to the PL would mean the return of Zema, where he remained affiliated for years before running for governor of Minas Gerais through Novo, in 2018. Valdemar considers that the head of the Minas Gerais State Executive is a political cadre with the qualifications to participate in the process of aggregation on the right.

Zema informed Valdemar that, for now, he is not going to make any decision. According to close allies, abandoning the current party is not in his plans for 2023. “The movement he makes is to try to strengthen the Novo in Minas. He invited important mayors to the party”, comments an ally, who admits the PL poll.

In the Minas Gerais PL directory, the empowerment of Zema ao Novo is seen as a move to ensure a close successor in the government of Minas Gerais. A leadership close to Valdemar explains, however, that the governor has not closed the doors to a return to the party, but considers that any change would be left for 2025 or early 2026.

“Zema is part of the movement to unite the center and the right. He is aware of that, we already talked to him once and we will try to talk again”, says the source. “Novo is unable to host a competitive candidacy for the Presidency. The PL has more scope, it was our affiliate in the past, the party had a tradition in the municipality of Araxá [onde o governador nasceu]”, he adds.

The governor of Paraná is not cited as a candidate for the PL. The party wants to be head of the ticket in 2026 and, therefore, may not accept Ratinho Júnior (PSD) as a candidate so easily. Party leaders assess, however, that a composition cannot be discarded, although they reinforce that there is still plenty of time to dialogue about the future of the right.