Parties target Lira’s succession in the mayoral presidency in 2025

Parties have already begun to articulate for the succession of Arthur Lira (PP-AL) in the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies, even with a year and a half to go until the next election that will define the command of the House. Names from the Republicans and União Brasil are already emerging as the most quoted and the trend is that Lira will be able to make a successor with the support of the PT government.

No one speaks openly about the matter yet, but the Presidency of the Chamber is already the informal theme of some backstage meetings and conversations, such as in the chat circles in the Chamber’s Green Room.

A deputy from the Republicans, who is part of the bloc formed by the MDB, PSD, PSC and Podemos and is close to the leaders, told People’s Gazette under the condition of anonymity that the names of the president of the Republicans, Marcos Pereira (SP), and the leader of União Brasil in the Chamber, Elmar Nascimento (BA), are already emerging behind the scenes, which is part of the other large block formed by PP, União Brasil, PSDB-Cidadania Federation, PDT, PSB, Avante, Solidariedade and Patriota. Nascimento, according to him, would be Lira’s favorite for being from the same party bloc and a personal friend of the current president – ​​and the government itself.

In addition, the Union leader was one of the guests for the celebration held at the Alvorada Palace after the conclusion of the votes on the tax reform and the Carf. Both Pereira and Nascimento have been aiming for the presidency of the Chamber for some time. They presented themselves as pre-candidates in the 2021 elections, but ended up supporting Arthur Lira.

The two deputies are no guarantee of “support” for Lula in the Chamber, but they have been making efforts to get closer to the government in recent times. Nascimento was instrumental in convincing the Union bench hours before the vote on the tax reform. The party was at the center of the dispute for the Ministry of Tourism, and after an announcement that Daniela Carneiro would remain in office, it threatened to postpone the vote. But the resistance was later overcome by the confirmation of the exchange of the minister by Celso Sabino (PA), and Elmar Nascimento managed to secure the votes of 48 of the 59 deputies on the bench, in favor of the reform.

The leaders of the MDB, Isnaldo Bulhões (AL), and the PDT, André Figueiredo (CE), are still running outside, who are trying to gain space in the race for the presidency and are strong presences in Centrão. For the Republican deputy interviewed by the report, this division of candidates within the same party bloc could end up generating a “split” in the blocs and tangling the dispute.

Party blocks were created with succession in mind, says analyst

For political analyst Adriano Cerqueira, the two large blocks that make up the majority in the Chamber, alongside the PL, were already thought out with a view to the succession of Arthur Lira.

The blocks, according to him, are a strong indication of the ongoing party restructuring in Brazil since the election of former president Jair Bolsonaro, when previously traditional and strong parties, such as PSDB and MDB, lost strength and joined forces with small to medium-sized parties that wanted greater decision-making power in the agenda of the National Congress.

“These parties are now directly vying for power, and have a different posture than the Centrão that previously served the governments on duty and negotiated positions only”, he says, adding that what is in dispute in these two larger blocks of the House is the succession of Arthur Lira.

On the other hand, the left, the base of the Lula government, has a much lower number of votes and the tendency is that they will not risk their own candidacy to replace Lira. The Minister of Agrarian Development, Paulo Teixeira, said in an interview with the UOL portal recently that the PT should not launch a candidate for the presidency of the Chamber in 2025.

“I believe that the PT should not compete [a presidência da Câmara]. We have 140 parliamentarians, if we are going to run for the National Congress and lose, we already had a record that was not good”, completed the minister to UOL, referring to the defeat of then-deputy Arlindo Chinaglia to Eduardo Cunha, in 2015, which reduced the governability of then-president Dilma Rousseff (PT), creating the climate for her impeachment the following year. Teixeira also defended that the government talks to build names and commitments.

The opposition, in turn, has avoided talking about the subject. For the deputy leader of the PL Alberto Fraga (DF), a competitive name has not yet emerged and “it is still too early to talk about it”.

President of the Chamber plays a leading role in national politics

Re-elected earlier this year with record support from 90% of parliamentarians, Lira was able to raise even more importance to the presidency of the Chamber, making use of a good traffic between parliamentarians to negotiate with the opposition and government.

Lira was, for example, the main articulator of the tax reform approved at the beginning of July in the Chamber. And he even managed to negotiate another victory for the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, when the project of the casting vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf) was approved, which favors the Union in disputes between the taxpayer and the Federal Revenue Service. Tax reform, in particular, faced strong resistance from governors, mayors, parliamentarians and productive sectors, such as agribusiness and services. Lira, however, managed to put together the agreements that made it possible to understand and vote on the matters.

It was also Lira who was behind the main setbacks of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the first half of the year, such as the approval of a legislative decree that suspended Lula’s sanitation decree and of a project that establishes the time frame for indigenous lands, which still needs to be considered by the Senate. On several occasions, he demanded greater political articulation from the government and said that Congress has autonomy to vote what is best for the country.

Lira’s performance during these two and a half years at the head of the Chamber – and not just in the first months of Lula’s government – ​​gave even greater projection to the position, which had already been gaining greater prominence since when it was occupied by Rodrigo Maia, who initially demonstrated great capacity for political articulation.

“The president will always have strong power, there will always be someone very relevant. The position projects and strengthens the person who is there”, says political analyst Cristiano Noronha, from Arko Advice, also remembering that the president of the Chamber is the third figure in the line of succession to the Presidency of the Republic.

Regarding the current scenario that is beginning to take shape, Noronha says that Elmar Nascimento is a strong name, he has dialogue with Centrão parties, and for the government he would be a more interesting option than Marcos Pereira, who is from the same party as Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of São Paulo, who has his own political pretensions.

The analyst mentions yet another name that, according to him, could become an alternative in the current political scenario: Pedro Lupion (PP-PR), president of the Agricultural Parliamentary Front (FPA). “Lula needs to improve the dialogue with the agro, especially in the year of the temporal milestone”, he emphasizes.

But Noronha believes that it is still too early for a public debate on Lira’s succession. “If it starts much earlier, it ends up weakening Lira itself, which is why the discussions and articulations are still not as ostensible”, he says.

The next election for the presidency of the Chamber will only take place in February 2025. The definition will depend on a lot of articulation and party agreements, in addition to the political situation at the time.