Pace of action against Bolsonaro at TSE makes all the difference – 04/13/2023 – Bruno Boghossian

Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility got closer. After the TSE gave an accelerated pace to one of the processes that could remove the former president from the polls, the Electoral Attorney General’s Office defended that he be prevented from running for eight years.

Even a less than diligent investigation would be forced to conclude that Bolsonaro committed irregularities by spreading false information and using the public machine to destabilize the electoral process. The opinion of the PGE framed the conduct of the former president: abuse of authority, abuse of political power, misuse of purpose and misuse of the media.

The speed of the case should make a difference to the political effects of the trial. Bolsonaro could be convicted months after leaving power and sentenced to stay out of the election three years before the race.

Although vacations in Florida have reduced the electricity of Bolsonaro supporters, the former president has the affinity of a good part of the 58 million voters who voted for him in 2022. The idea is to exploit a possible conviction to avoid the dispersion of this base .

The electorate’s reaction to the ineligibility process is yet to reproduce the passions of last year. According to Datafolha, 83% of Bolsonaro voters say that the TSE should clear him and release his candidacy. Most evangelicals, the middle class and residents of the Midwest feel the same way.

Bolsonaro allies appear to be trying to convince themselves that the conviction could be good news. Flávio Bolsonaro and Ciro Nogueira say that, ineligible, the former president would be an unbeatable electoral force.

It’s not like that. The strength of Bolsonarism will depend on Lula’s performance and Bolsonaro’s movements (candidate or not). To use ineligibility like gasoline, the former president would need to recycle the anti-system outfit, keep a persecution discourse alive until 2026 and still organize the succession within a political group known for fratricide.

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