Opposition had occasional victories and “betrayals” in Lula’s first year 3

The victory of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the last election imposed on the Liberal Party (PL) and the opposition the challenge of maintaining a cohesive bloc in important votes in the National Congress during the year 2023. Without having control over the public machine, the right lost the support it had from Centrão during the years of Jair Bolsonaro’s (PL) government and saw its most loyal bloc reduced to around a fifth of the Chamber of Deputies. On the other hand, at times, they managed to articulate support to put pressure on the government.

The processing of the tax reform was the most evident example, throughout the year, that the opposition has the capacity to put pressure on government agendas, but still suffers from internal “betrayals”. During the first vote in the Chamber of Deputies, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) led the offensive against the Executive’s proposal and garnered 118 votes in the first round and 113 in the second. However, 20 deputies from his own party contributed to the 382 votes in favor of the proposal.

Behind the scenes, the assessment is that these parliamentarians adopted a pro-government stance on economic issues so as not to be retaliated in the distribution of resources to their states, mainly in the North and Northeast. In addition to the PL, the Progressistas (PP) and the Republicans – who supported Bolsonaro in 2022, but currently occupy positions on Lula’s Esplanada – experience a duality between government and opposition, depending on the agenda.

In reserve, a Republican parliamentarian commented that the party will not support the PT government on usual issues, only on “economic issues that are of interest to the country”. Despite this, the opposition in the Chamber estimates that it has between 100 and 120 deputies loyal to the opposition’s principles.

In the Senate, the approvals of two of Lula’s nominees to the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Cristiano Zanin and Flávio Dino, were the defeats most felt by the opposition. In the case of Dino, one of the main antagonists of the Brazilian right, there was a greater effort to stop him, but the opposition was unable to counterattack in the government’s “rough game”, failing to expand its range of support beyond the 32 senators who voted for Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) in the election for the presidency of the Senate, in February. The opposition in the House, however, achieved victories by allying with Centrão on issues such as the time frame for indigenous lands and limiting the individual decisions of judges and ministers of the STF.

How the opposition is dealing with the “traitors” who vote with the government

Another example of the lack of opposition alignment was the rejection of an urgent request to vote on a project that would overturn Lula’s decree on weapons. Ten PL deputies did not support the request, either by abstaining, not appearing or opposing the proposal. The urgency, which would place the draft legislative decree as one of the voting priorities in the House, did not pass with just three votes. The situation generated a series of internal criticisms among the opposition.

“I rarely come here to talk about votes. But losing by 3 votes, the urgency of an issue that is very expensive for Brazil, is revolting. Even more so when it could have been avoided with votes from the opposition – or ‘opposition’. The lack of commitment from some deputies is unbelievable. We continue”, wrote deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) on the social network X (formerly Twitter).

Deputy Maurício Marcon (Podemos-RS) assesses that the lack of unity in the opposition bench is a problem that is being faced by exposing the votes of parliamentarians who say they are oppositionists, but who vote with the government on certain issues.

“We need to understand, at first, who was actually in opposition. One of the biggest milestones this year was the study we carried out through PlacarCongresso.com, which will be expanded next year to the Senate”, said Marcon. According to him, the publication of the votes has already generated a change in behavior among some parliamentarians. ” Some who didn’t vote with us, finally, started voting after this score was released.”

Representative Bia Kicis (PL-DF), president of the Financial Inspection and Control Commission, argued along the same lines as her colleague and defended the exposure of unfaithful parliamentarians.

“The main challenge is to keep the opposition united and focused, in the face of constant harassment from the government, with offers of positions and amendments. But the strategy of exposing those who pretend to be opposition, but vote with the government, is generating results and the opposition has gained new supporters”, said the deputy.

According to Bia Kicis, an example of the change in stance was the fact that the Parliamentary Inquiry Commission (CPI) on abuse of authority reached the minimum number of signatures (171) to be installed in the Chamber, after almost a year of trying to get the investigation underway. on the ministers of the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

The opposition increased pressure on other parliamentarians after the death of Cleriston Pereira da Cunha, 46, who was arrested in Brasília, accused of participating in the January 8 acts. The death was seen by some parliamentarians as a result of the association between negligence and abuse by the STF, as the defendant had been detained for more than 10 months without a defined sentence and had been waiting for two and a half months to be released for health reasons.

“The abuses of authority by the STF and TSE culminated in a death in Papuda. This event catalyzed, unfortunately in this tragic way, the collection of signatures necessary for the installation of the CPI on Abuse of Authority”, said deputy Marcel Van Hattem (Novo-RS), author of the request. The CPI still needs approval from the President of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), to be installed.

Victories depended on support from Centrão

Despite the opposition’s concentrated effort to stand up to the Lula government, most of the victories obtained were associated with the eventual support of parliamentarians from Centrão and Lira. The retreat in the vote on the Fake News PL, in May this year, is an example of the pressure exerted by the more physiological congressmen on thorny issues in the Chamber.

Reported by deputy Orlando Silva (PCdoB-SP), the project was removed from the agenda after an agreement with the leaders of the House so that the text “could be better debated” and could receive more amendments.

Another case that shows the opposition’s dependence on the Centrão was the movement to obstruct government agendas, which began in September, after the STF advanced on issues considered to be within the Legislature’s competence, such as the time frame, decriminalization of abortion and legalization of drugs. The movement was supported by several benches, with emphasis on the Agricultural, Evangelical, Catholic and Public Security Parliamentary Fronts. The main result of this obstruction was the approval, in the Senate, of the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) of monocratic decisions, which limits the individual decisions of STF ministers.

Political analyst Juan Carlos, CEO of Ranking of Politicians, assesses that, in general, the Lula government’s defeats in Congress were more the result of sectoral interests than of the opposition. “The government faced challenges in Congress, mainly when trying to undo public policies established during the Temer and Bolsonaro administrations. However, these challenges were more the result of sectoral interests than structured opposition,” he said.

Centrão, in turn, strengthened this year. Political scientist Elton Gomes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI), points out that the bloc led by Lira has benefited from polarization to advance its own agenda.

“PP and Republicans negotiated ministries with the Lula government and sought to maintain, at the same time, bridges with the right, keeping the doors open with both political camps waiting for what will give more advantage in the coming political moment. In other words, the Centrão, very surviving, very adaptable, malleable, was part of the base of the Lula government, but it did not stop having dialogue with Bolsonaro, especially in the usual agendas, in the agendas of values, seeing what the political thermometer is”, he said. the analyst.

In the Senate, this was also observed during the approval of the PEC against the STF, in which the president of the House, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), and the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ), Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), both recognized as allies of the government, they decided to speed up the processing of the proposal after dialogue with the opposition. For Alcolumbre, this dialogue is especially important to enable his candidacy for the presidency of the Senate in 2025.

For the opposition, 2023 was a year of specific victories, defeats and learning. Parliamentarians still need, in the view of the experts consulted for the report, to consolidate and strengthen their ability to influence political decisions at broader levels.

“As the economic situation does not take off, the international scenario continues to be bad and there is now more of an institutional crisis between the powers, this time between the Legislature and the Judiciary, there is space for the development of new fronts, new activities of the opposition”, noted Gomes.

“It will be up to the PL, as the largest party in the chamber of deputies and the main opposition force, to guide this process seeking the support of other parties.”