Nikolas Ferreira’s impact on the Education Commission in 2024

The choice of Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) as president of the Education Commission (CE) excited the right and raised the fury of parliamentarians on the left. Occupying a relevant position in the Chamber of Deputies demonstrates political strength, but the legislative arrangement is complex and must limit the Minas Gerais’ role. Nikolas’ position should have little weight in the processing of the National Education Plan (PNE), the main proposal to be discussed in 2024 that will define education guidelines for the next ten years. On the other hand, Nikolas must stop the advance of leftist ideology on other issues. The presidency of the EC also allows the deputy to influence the education debate during this year’s municipal elections.

According to the Minister of Education, Camilo Santana, the document worked on at the National Education Conference (Conae), full of left-wing ideologies, should be the basis of the PNE bill that should be presented by the Lula government in March. The Plan is among the main proposals that must be debated by parliamentarians in 2024. It will be up to the National Congress not only to reduce the impact of ideologization, but also to propose goals and indicators that improve the quality of education in the country.

“It is very likely that the PNE will not even be analyzed by the committees, this largely depends on the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL). If so, Nikolas’ influence will be very small. What will be sovereign in this decision is the plenary”, analyzes political scientist Felipe Rodrigues.

It is expected that the Lula government will present the proposal as a matter of urgency to be considered directly in the plenary sessions of the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate. Also according to Santana, there was an agreement with the presidents of the Houses for the PNE to be approved by June. The short deadline should make the work of parliamentarians even more difficult.

Presidency shows that, in addition to his impact on social media, Nikolas has influence in the Chamber

“The role of the committee president tends to be overestimated. It is very important, but other roles are even more important, such as the college of leaders, plenary and the president of the House himself”, says Arthur Wittenberg, master in public policy from King’s College London.

He explains that below this most powerful group, there are still party leaders who individually have decisive prerogatives. They are, for example, the ones who negotiate the choice of committee chairs. The party is responsible for indicating which parliamentarian should occupy the commission seat won.

Nikolas’ nomination demonstrates that the deputy has prestige within his own party. Despite this, for Wittenberg, committee presidents would be in third position in this “pyramid of influence” of the Legislature.

“In the case of Nikolas, there is an interesting phenomenon because he has a high influence on social media. But not always the influence online of a deputy is consolidated into effective influence in the Chamber of Deputies. Nikolas managed to combine this influence online and the real influence in the House”, highlights Rodrigues.

Nikolas must make it difficult to advance left-wing agendas

“Deputy Nikolas has much more power to not allow something that has a very left-wing ideological nature to move forward. But he will not necessarily be able to advance the exclusively right-wing agenda”, analyzes Wittenberg. For him, maintaining leftist agendas will be easier within a center-right Congress.

The vast majority of proposals that are processed in the Chamber of Deputies are not discussed in the plenary, but only in committees. Normally, a bill passes through two or three committees related to the matters in the text and, often, can go directly to the Federal Senate. The plenary session usually focuses on more complex and controversial projects, especially when there are differences of opinion among parliamentarians.

“A bill to be turned into law goes through a very narrow funnel. Not every legislative proposal that passes through a committee will necessarily become law”, explains Wittenberg. The expert comments that the proposal normally needs to go through other committees, eventually the plenary, and then be analyzed in several other stages by the Federal Senate. “The process is long”, he reinforces.

“The president of the commission is the one who decides which project goes on the agenda and has a lot of power to influence the voting procedure itself, waiting or not for a deputy to arrive to vote or ending a vote faster or slower according to his interests, for example ”, explains Felipe Rodrigues.

Within the commission, it is up to the president to choose who will be the rapporteurs for the bills. In addition to guiding projects that are of interest to his electoral base, Nikolas will be able to choose among his colleagues who make up the commission who will analyze each project. “By nominating a parliamentarian in favor or not of the project, he or she may facilitate or hinder the processing of this proposal”, comments Rodrigues.

Education is an important topic in municipal elections and Nikolas will be able to contribute to the debate

Municipal elections further polarize project discussions in the Legislative Houses, according to Rodrigues. “Those who defend Bolsonaro defend one type of education, and those who defend Lula defend another type of education. It is a normally polarized topic and very present in an election year”, he reiterates.

For him, the parliamentarian will have the power to influence the debate and guide themes that will be taken to municipal campaigns. “In the same way, the election year can also cause some projects to be put on the agenda or approved by the EC”, he adds.

“The Education Commission can be an important place to, more than debate ideas, give mayoral candidates the opportunity to take ownership of that debate in electoral campaigns”, projects Wittenberg. The strength of the EC president on social media should bring even more visibility to the discussions. The 27-year-old from Minas Gerais was the most voted parliamentarian in the last election with 1.47 million votes.