Michelle and Bolsonaro reinforce agendas in the states aiming for 2024

By intensifying travel in this second semester, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro seek to boost the Liberal Party in states in different regions with the aim of reinforcing next year’s electoral campaign. While Bolsonaro focuses on the Southern states, Michelle diversifies the agendas in the Northern and Northeastern states, a region considered the electoral stronghold of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

With her husband’s ineligibility, proclaimed by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) in June this year, Michelle has been used by the PL as an alternative to attract new affiliations across the country, especially in the North and Northeast. This year alone, she has already visited Rondônia, Pernambuco, Paraíba, Ceará and Pará. In these last two states, she was accompanied by Bolsonaro.

In the assessment of allies, the former first lady has the charisma to advance in states that Bolsonaro lost, in 2022. In this context, PL Mulher, chaired by Michelle, is seen as a good aggregator of affiliations and allows greater circulation of the Bolsonaro name in the region. According to party sources, more than 43,000 people joined the PL by October, 14,000 of whom were women.

“Michelle has been highly valued, has appeared alongside Bolsonaro on these trips and has become a target of the federal government due to the allegations in the case. However, she is certainly a person who can make an electoral impact. She is charismatic, speaks well, makes good speeches, has a good presence among women, who are not very captive voters”, said political scientist Adriano Cerqueira, professor at Ibmec.

The fulfillment of joint agendas between Bolsonaro and Michelle, as occurred on the 21st in Belém (PA), is also seen by allies as a way for the couple to show unity amid uncertainty about the former president’s successor. Although she has been suggested as a possible presidential candidate, PL sources estimate that the former first lady should maintain her campaign for the Federal Senate in the Federal District.

Both Valdemar Costa Netto and Bolsonaro understand Michelle’s potential. However, the behind-the-scenes reading is that the party wants to leave the presidential vacancy still open for future alliances in 2026. In this context, the name of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, appears as the former president’s favorite for the dispute against the PT.

Former president reinforces agendas in the South and Southeast

Having held meetings in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo and Santa Catarina this semester, the former president seeks to reinforce his base in states that gave him an advantage over Lula in the last election. The acronym’s objective is to encourage the PL to elect a thousand mayors in 2024. Currently, the acronym has around 360 municipal managers.

Excluding the visits he makes to the Federal District and surrounding areas, São Paulo is the state that the former president has visited most since returning to the United States. Whether in the capital or in the interior, the former president has visited the region five times. In Santa Catarina and Goiás, they were three times; and Minas Gerais received the former president twice.

For political scientist Elton Gomes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI), the former president’s trips aim to give the PL the muscle to face the PT in 2024 and 2026.

“His objective is to use this charisma to give the PL something it didn’t have: a party with cadres. Currently, the PL is a party with little ideological consistency and little programmatic content. So, he wants to give the party muscle and greater capillarity for the party in standing up to the Workers’ Party”, said the professor.

He adds: “The choice of locations is quite strategic, which leads us to believe that he is trying to articulate himself in order to increase the weight of his political influence and his ability to coordinate with local leaders to break some of the hegemony of lulopetismo.”

Titles and tributes reinforce Bolsonaro’s presence in the states

The titles of “honorary citizen” received reinforce the former president’s presence in strategic strongholds, such as: Minas Gerais, Cuiabá and Barretos (SP). According to a survey carried out by the newspaper “O Estado de S. Paulo”, the legislative assemblies and municipal chambers approved eight titles in honor of Bolsonaro in the last 12 months. 15 tributes were also located, of which four were approved, four have already been delivered and seven are in the process of being processed.

Among the honors, Bolsonaro will receive the title of citizen of São Bernardo do Campo (SP), at ABC Paulista, in a ceremony on November 30th. The proposal was presented by councilor Paulo Chuchu (PRTB) at the city council. The city located in the metropolitan region of São Paulo is Lula’s stronghold, where the PT member worked as a metalworker and trade unionist.

Commenting on Bolsonaro’s attack on several electoral strongholds, Adriano Cerqueira recalls the growth of conservatism in Brazil and the rise of parliamentarians linked to the right.

“More than bursting the Lulopetista bubble, I think Bolsonaro is investing in the growth of parliamentary representation of politicians linked to conservatism and the right itself. This electorate has been increasingly larger in Brazil and has generated an increase in the number of councilors, state deputies, federal deputies, mayors, governors, senators. So, Bolsonaro is certainly investing on this basis”, said the professor.