Maduro became a problem for Lula – 12/09/2023 – Celso Rocha de Barros

Nicolás Maduro is creating serious problems for Lula.

In the short period of two months, the Venezuelan president broke the agreement he had concluded with the opposition and began a campaign for the annexation of up to 75% of Guyana.

Lula had enthusiastically viewed the Barbados agreement, signed in October between Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition, under Norwegian mediation. The agreement provided for clean presidential elections in 2024 in exchange for the removal of American economic sanctions against Venezuela.

Weeks after the agreement, the Venezuelan Supreme Court, a portrait of what the Brazilian STF would be like if Bolsonaro’s coup had worked, declared the primaries held by the opposition to choose its candidate null and void.

Shortly afterwards, Maduro began a campaign to regain Essequibo, a territory that corresponds to almost all of Guyana. Venezuela argues that it lost the Essequibo in the 19th century due to a trick of the British Empire. I don’t doubt it’s true.

About this, however, two things must be said: firstly, Essequibo was colonized by the Dutch and English since well before the 19th century (and neither party paid much attention to the opinion of the indigenous people).

Secondly, Guyana has existed as an independent country for more than 50 years, with a different language from Venezuela (English), its own culture – a large part of the population is of Hindu origin – and a very strong tradition of national affirmation in the face of imperialism.

The fight for independence was led by the Popular Progressive Party (the same as the current president of Guyana). In its origins, and for many years, the PPP was openly socialist. This earned Guyana serious friction with the Americans and British.

The annexation of Essequibo would, in practice, extinguish Guyana. This would occur precisely at a time when the country appears to have a chance to develop with the large oil discoveries on its coast. Is it possible that the Guyanese will waste this chance? Undoubtedly. But who are Venezuelans to talk about this? Or, for that matter, the Brazilians?

For now, Venezuela’s declaration of sovereignty over Essequibo is as grounded in reality as Juan Guaidó’s decision to declare himself president of Venezuela in 2019.

Most experts think Venezuela will not invade Guyana. The current rhetorical escalation would only serve to create a cause that unifies Venezuelans. After all, the Venezuelan opposition also supports annexation.

This was Maduro’s first victory: it exposed a side of the Venezuelan opposition that is likely to attract little sympathy from Western public opinion.

For Brazil, a war would be a disaster. It would delay regional integration for years, waste the Latin American comparative advantage of relative geopolitical stability, generate waves of refugees and, in the worst case scenario, require Brazilian military intervention. Bringing the military back to the center of the national debate so soon after the defeat of Bolsonarism would be risky.

In the coming years, the PT government may have to deal with Milei in Argentina, Trump in the United States and the Maduro crisis. Little by little, it becomes clear to Lula how much the world has worsened since the last time he was president.

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