Lula’s ministers must have their parties with Bolsonaro – 12/03/2023 – Power

Less than a year before the municipal election, President Lula (PT) has a scenario in which his ministers’ parties must be allied with Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in at least five capitals.

This number could still increase, as the races for mayors will narrow down, with parties withdrawing pre-candidacies and forming alliances.

On the other hand, Lula seeks to smooth things over with the party of his vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), because there are currently eight capitals in which they must be on different platforms.

PT and PL are betting on next year’s municipal elections to give a show of strength, in a kind of second round of the presidential election in which Lula beat Bolsonaro. The expectation is that the polarization will be repeated.

The elections are important for PT members, firstly, to be able to reverse the historic defeat of 2020, when the president’s party failed to elect any mayor of the Brazilian capital.

Also, the party still seeks to control local machines and pave the way for re-election in Planalto in 2026 – or election of a name chosen by Lula.

At the federal level, the Lula government built a large base in the National Congress to guarantee the approval of its priority agenda, attracting parties from the center and the bloc called centrão to its side.

However, there are few cases in which these acronyms must be on the PT side or the candidate who will be supported by Lula, in the capitals. This is because these parties have a configuration that follows regional criteria of political affinity rather than national ones.

And one of the consequences will be for the government to see these acronyms, in some cases, on the Bolsonarist side. This scenario can occur in São Paulo, Salvador, Porto Alegre, Florianópolis and Maceió.

The PL wants to launch more than a thousand of its own candidates for mayors, and be present at the head of the ticket in most capitals, such as in Rio de Janeiro, with deputy Alexandre Ramagem. But in capitals where this is not possible, it will form an alliance with other parties.

In Porto Alegre, for example, mayor Sebastião Melo (MDB) joined Bolsonarism in the last campaign and should double his bid for re-election, with his vice-president from PL. The same case should occur in other capitals.

In the capital of Bahia, Bolsonaro’s party even launched former minister João Roma as a candidate for mayor. But today the tendency is for an alliance to be formed with the current mayor, Bruno Reis (União).

In Maceió, the PP, the party of André Fufuca (Sports), is expected to nominate the vice-president in the re-election campaign of João Henrique Caldas, currently affiliated with Bolsonaro’s PL.

In the state, the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is an ally of the mayor and a long-time opponent of minister Renan Filho, who will also have his candidate in Maceió.

Today the most emblematic case of this electoral node involving the Esplanada is that of São Paulo. On the one hand, Bolsonaro’s allies seek to consolidate the former president’s support for Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB), who belongs to the party of two PT ministers.

In the state governed by former Bolsonaro minister Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), it is important that the candidate positions himself further to the right, above all, to counter the campaign of Guilherme Boulos (PSOL).

Bolsonaro and Nunes’ relationship is going through setbacks. And allies want a more forceful gesture from the mayor towards the former president. Despite the turbulence, Bolsonaro has already told allies that the current mayor would be his candidate, but that he would only nominate the vice president for his ticket in March.

Boulos’ victory is one of the biggest fears of Bolsonaro supporters today.

Also in the capital of São Paulo, Lula will see Geraldo Alckmin on another platform, that of deputy Tabata Amaral (PSB), while he supports Boulos.

According to members of the party, Alckmin is a vote-getter among more moderate voters, especially among those from São Paulo. The vice-president was governor of the state and has introduced the parliamentarian to presidents of entities, unions, etc.

São Paulo is one of the cases in which both PT and PSB members already take it for granted that they will be on different platforms. The scenario could be repeated in other capitals, if pre-candidacies continue until October 6, 2024.

Lula and Alckmin’s candidates face each other in Vitória (ES), Curitiba (PR), Natal (RN), Porto Velho (RO), Florianópolis (SC), Belém (PSB) and Palmas (TO).

In Belém, for example, Lula’s candidate must be a politician from another allied party, the current mayor Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL), while the PSB must go with Cássio Andrade.

This week, PT president Gleisi Hoffmann and senator Humberto Costa (PT-CE) were at the PSB, with president Carlos Siqueira, minister Márcio França (Micro and Small Business) and mayor João Campos (Recife) , in what was considered the first more concrete meeting on municipal issues.

The case of Recife is an example of the difficulties, even when PT and PSB do not see eye to eye with other partners. Campos will seek re-election, but a definition of the composition of the ticket is not yet on the horizon.

The PT does not give up on nominating the vice president. But João Campos resists accepting to hand over the position to PT members or someone he doesn’t trust, considering the possibility that this name will take over as mayor with less than two years in office, if the PT member opts for a higher flight in 2026. .

Lula’s party, in turn, already has a name also eyeing the governor’s race in three years: that of senator Humberto Costa. The final arbitration, say interlocutors, should be the responsibility of the president himself, if necessary.

Lula’s heterogeneous base in Brasília should also result in a scenario in which in all capitals there must be at least one name from a minister or ally party. The party conventions that will give the final shape of the dispute take place between July and August of next year.