Lula’s digital popularity drops with attacks on Bolsonaro – 06/15/2023 – Politics

The digital popularity of President Lula (PT) fluctuated between April and June, taking off after the increase in the minimum wage and the trip to Portugal and plummeting after a series of criticisms of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), when he called the government of the predecessor of “plague of locusts”.

The data are from the IPD (Digital Popularity Index), analyzed daily by the research and consulting company Quaest. It is calculated by an algorithm that collects and processes 152 variables from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Wikipedia and Google platforms. Results range from 0 to 100 points.

The petista, who had already recovered from the drops in performance on the networks after the conclusion he made involving the senator and former judge Sergio Moro (União Brasil-PR), grew by about 15 points, from 67.88 to 83.28, on April 22, when the president made his first official appointment on his trip to Portugal.

On the occasion, Lula signed 13 new agreements with the country, attacked Bolsonaro and former president Michel Temer (MDB) and stated that both democracies were at risk due to extremism.

The day before, controversy exploded on the internet about the luxury tie bought by first lady Rosângela da Silva, Janja. At the time, a video circulated on social networks of her visiting Zegna, a men’s brand, and leaving with a bag, claiming to have acquired the item due to an unforeseen event.

The peak of Lula’s digital popularity occurred on April 30, when the president scored 85.37 points following the announcement of an increase in the minimum wage to R$1,320.

The score exceeds the PT’s previous record, recorded on January 9, the day after the coup attacks by Bolsonarists on the headquarters of the three Powers – he had scored 83.14.

During the trip to Portugal, Lula also surpassed Bolsonaro’s visibility in April 2019, his first year at the helm of the Presidency.

Two weeks later, however, Lula’s index dropped 30 points, with the repercussions of the series of criticisms that the current head of the Executive made to his predecessor. Afterwards, he regained steam with the vote on the MP (Provisional Measure) of the Ministries, which almost lost its validity in a series of defeats to Planalto.

On May 12, Lula compared the government of his opponent in the past elections to a “plague of locusts”, cited investigations into suspected fraud in the former president’s vaccine card and the management of the Covid-19 pandemic. It was from 83.38 points, recorded the day before, to 52.94.

Later that day, Bolsonaro posted a video on Twitter stating that he would file criminal and civil action against Lula for the statements. With the tweet, he gained about 25 points in digital popularity – from 11.88 to 37.31.

“These are absurd. He cannot go on speaking lies at will and not be bothered by practically anyone. We will do our part and I am sure that Justice will do its part”, stated the former president.

As for Bolsonaro, despite the improvement in the score after Lula’s criticisms and subsequent stability, the low performance on the networks in relation to what was seen during the term has remained now, indicating the difficulty of the former president in remaining relevant, now in the opposition.

The breaches of secrecy on Lieutenant-Colonel Mauro Cid’s cell phone, the scheduling of the trial of action at the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) that could make him ineligible and the sequence of the investigation into the fraud on his vaccination card are points that challenge the visibility of the former president.

Currently, Lula scores 54.75 points, and Bolsonaro, 41.85, with a difference of almost 13 points. On the day that the petista announced the increase in the minimum, the distance was just over 75 points, the largest ever recorded.

To calculate the final score, the IPD considers five dimensions: fame (number of followers), engagement (comments and likes per post), mobilization (shares), valence (proportion of positive and negative reactions) and interest (search volume). .

The weight that each dimension has in the account is determined by a model assimilated by the machine from the real results of previous elections, with thousands of candidacies monitored by the company.