Lula is approved by 38% and disapproved by 30% after 11 months, points out Datafolha

In the final stretch of his first year in office, President Lula (PT) maintained his stable assessment. The PT member closes 2023 with 38% approval from Brazilians, while 30% consider his work to be regular, and the same number, bad or terrible.

The data comes from the fourth round of Datafolha research on the president’s popularity, which polled 2,004 voters in 135 cities in Brazil on Tuesday (5). The average margin of error is plus or minus two points.

The numbers proved to be practically unchanged throughout the four measurements throughout the mandate. The only significant variation occurred between June and September, when disapproval rose from 27% to 31%, still nothing that would characterize a fall.

The profile of presidential approval is very homogeneous, with the nuances following the basic lines of the electoral campaign: it is better evaluated among people from the Northeast (48%, in a group that represents 26% of the sample) and those with less education (50% of this 28% ears).

In the same vein, their disapproval rises to 39% among the 22% with higher education and the 15% who live in the South. The highest rate is seen in the richest 4%: 47% of these people who earn more than 10 minimum wages per month see Lula as bad or terrible.

Despite some initiatives to bring people together, the PT member was unsuccessful in winning over the evangelical heart, a group of 28% of the electorate that is very politically influential, generally associated with Bolsonarism. In it, his disapproval is 38%, compared to 28% recorded among Catholics (52% of the population interviewed).

A group that stands out is the youngest, who make up 15% of the electorate, in which Lula achieves the highest rate of regular evaluation (40%) — a sign that the traditional policy adopted by the PT member may have calmed the mood after the turbulent years of Jair Bolsonaro (PL, 2019-2022) and the coup apoplexy of January 8, but perhaps it will not have great appeal among the future electorate.

The presidential environment can celebrate such stability in the midst of a drawn-out year in politics, with long-delayed decisions, such as the choice of new heads of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) and the PGR (Attorney General’s Office), and constant friction with the center of its parliamentary base.

The Lula administration has also been marked so far by the lack of new brands, having recycled with a greater or lesser degree of redesign several programs from his previous mandates, such as the PAC (Growth Acceleration Program) and Bolsa Família.

This stagnation is reflected in the growing and majority assessment that Lula did less than expected in this first year.

Datafolha measured in March 51% of voters saying this; it’s 57% now. Those who think he exceeded expectations fluctuated from 18% to 16%, as did those who say he did what was expected (25% to 24%).

On the international stage, the president’s prominent bet after the deliberate ostracism of the Bolsonaro administration, Lula’s performance ended up being marked by contradictions and back-and-forth, such as the issue of the Ukrainian War, the relationship with the United States and Europe or the ambiguous environmental agenda. .

Thus, the good relative result can be attributed to the economy, which is expected to grow above expectations, of 2.5% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and, more importantly, records stable inflation and the lowest unemployment rates since 2014. This, in politics, is popularity in the vein.

The country closed the first three quarters of the year with 7.6% unemployment, and with 100.2 million people with some paid activity.

Lula returned to government for an unprecedented third term after having led Brazil from 2003 to 2010. This condition, as the numbers show, took away the freshness of his political novelty and led him to not repeat the performance of his first term: at the end of 2003, it was 42% excellent/good, 41% average and 15% bad/terrible.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) had similar numbers at the end of 1995, while Dilma Rousseff (PT) had 59% approval, 33% regular and 6% disapproval in 2011. In relation to those elected for the first time at the same time in office , Lula far surpasses Fernando Collor (PRN), who in 1991 had only 23% excellent/good, 40% average and 34% bad/terrible.

In a direct comparison with Bolsonaro, who continues to be his biggest political opponent even due to the convenience that polarization brings to the PT member, Lula does better. At the end of his first year, when the most acute period of his administration had not begun, the then president had a 30% approval rating, a 32% regular rating and a 36% poor/terrible rating.

The data are photographs, obviously. FHC and Dilma were re-elected, but Lula’s successor ended up being impeached in 2016, just as Collor resigned in 1992 to avoid the same fate. And the criticized Bolsonaro almost beat Lula last year, losing the second round by just 1.8 percentage points.

*With information from Folha

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