Lula goes to China amid Xi Jinping’s movement against the West

A delegation made up of nearly 250 people and led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will arrive next week in China. This comes as Chinese leader Xi Jinping expands his efforts to create an ideological bloc of countries united by anti-Western sentiment.

This Tuesday (21), Xi Jinping met in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is isolated internationally after determining the invasion of Ukraine last year. He is the subject of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (a body linked to the UN) for participation in war crimes. Even so, Putin was still invited by Jinping to reciprocate the visit and travel to China soon.

This was the most important diplomatic action between the two nations since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Jinping’s visit showed Beijing and Moscow’s willingness to strengthen their partnership. This union could be the basis of a front of countries united ideologically by resentment against the United States and its European allies, according to western analysts.

China and Russia say they are being pressured by Western military forces. NATO (Western military alliance) would be increasingly exerting influence over countries and seas that Beijing and Moscow consider their areas of influence, especially in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe. But a joint document was released stating that the partnership is not a political-military alliance.

Earlier this month, Jinping had negotiated the resumption of dialogue between two other dictatorships: Iran and Saudi Arabia. According to analysts, the Chinese president works to attract the two countries to the bloc formed by authoritarian governments, which also includes North Korea, which is an ally of China. Another country being courted is South Africa, despite being a democracy.

Lula’s entourage will arrive in China five days after Jinping’s visit to Putin. Therefore, it is in this context of consolidation of a scenario that analysts have been calling “Cold War 2.0” that Brazil is going to Beijing. The Brazilian argument is to negotiate trade agreements and attract investment, but it is not clear whether Xi Jinping will try to bring Lula closer to his ideological group.

Lula’s entourage downplays China’s rivalry with Western countries

Since returning to power this year, President Lula has tried to resume the foreign policy of his first administrations. It was focused on making Brazil a more relevant country on the international stage.

At the time, Lula closed the country’s participation in the UN peacekeeping mission in Haiti. The goal of getting a permanent seat on the UN Security Council never materialized, but Haiti received important help from the Brazilian military for 13 consecutive years.

Lula also tried to mediate a failed agreement to try to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, financed the reform of the Port of Mariel, in Cuba, and tried to increase the presence of Brazilian companies in Africa, among other international actions.

This year, the president has already visited the United States, Argentina and Uruguay. But the relevance of the practical results of these trips is questioned by critics. This is because no major agreement has been signed.

The delegation from the Planalto Palace now sees the trip to China as strategic for Brazil and downplays the fact that the host government is a communist autocracy.

Lula arrives in Beijing on the 26th in front of 240 people. Among them are 90 agribusiness representatives, 24 deputies and six senators, in addition to governors and ministers.

Brazilian trade balance depends on trade with China

The Brazilian government’s assessment is that it would be necessary to strengthen relations with the Asian giant, the country’s main trading partner since 2009. In 2022, Brazil recorded a trade surplus with China of around US$ 30 billion (R$ 157 billion), mainly because of the export of products such as soybeans, meat and ores.

Last year, the total surplus of the Brazilian trade balance was approximately US$ 60 billion (R$ 314 billion). In other words, roughly speaking, trade with China accounted for half of this positive result.

Now, the expectation of the Brazilian government is that at least 20 agreements should be signed in the areas of agribusiness, science and technology, trade, education and culture.

In addition, the PT government believes that closer relations with Beijing may pressure the US government to offer Brazil new investment, trade and cooperation partnerships.

This is because, traditionally, Itamaraty’s foreign policy adopts a posture of non-alignment with any power. For this reason, Brazil is seen abroad as a pendulum country – which is momentarily aligned with the nation that offers the most advantages.

For the Asia and Pacific secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MRE), ambassador Eduardo Paes Saboia, Lula’s visit to China, right after the meeting with the president of the United States, Joe Biden, in February, does not imply an evil be diplomatic.

“There is no diplomatic discomfort, Lula went to the United States, other leaders will go to China. It is natural, visits and contacts between the leaders help to improve things”, said Saboia.

According to the Minister of Agriculture, Carlos Fávaro, the government will work on trade agreements and on simplifying import and export processes through digitization. Another objective is to open the market for new Brazilian products with the Chinese authorities.

“It is a very eclectic entourage, contemplating the diversity of Brazilian agribusiness, not only those who are interested in selling their products, but also in buying, so that we can advance in the agribusiness”, explained Fávaro.

But the group must also have controversial travelers, like businessmen Joesley and Wesley Batista, from the JBS group. Spotted for corruption related to the Workers’ Party, they signed a plea deal with Justice in 2017.

China’s influence on Brazil becomes the target of questions from the US

Despite the Itamaraty’s strategy to try to minimize criticism due to an eventual rapprochement with the Xi Jinping regime, US senators questioned government officials Joe Biden about Brazil’s dependence on Beijing.

Last week, at the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, lawmakers welcomed Brian Nichols, assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, and Richard Duke, deputy special envoy for climate. The objective was to discuss the state of diplomatic relations between Brazil and the USA.

“China is now Brazil’s biggest trading partner and the biggest market for many of the commodities Brazilian. It is also the largest investor in infrastructure projects. China has invested in building strong relationships with legislators and other Brazilian leaders. There is a strong pro-China base in the country,” said Duke, an assistant to John Kerry, a former secretary of state who was in Brazil recently.

The US government has shown concern about the expansion of Chinese influence in Latin America, especially through the so-called New Silk Road. This is an initiative to finance infrastructure projects in developing nations that reached its peak in 2016 and has been declining in recent years. It is to be gradually replaced by a program called the Global Development Initiative.

Brazil is not formally part of the Chinese project, but it still receives investments from Beijing through Chinese companies that have established themselves in the country.

In addition, senators demanded that the US government increase pressure on Brazil to condemn Russia in the Ukraine war. “The truth is that Brazil has not been very supportive of sanctions against Russia,” said Democrat Senator Ben Cardin. Republican Ricketts recalled Brazil’s claim to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council and questioned the “lack of support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity”, as well as the refusal to send anti-aircraft ammunition to the country.

How is Lula’s “peace club” after the Chinese position on the war?

Brazil depends on imported fertilizers from Russia and has avoided openly criticizing Moscow. President Lula even claimed that he would be able to resolve the war in Ukraine by inviting Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to “drink beer”.

Afterwards, Lula defended to the American president and to Zelensky himself the idea of ​​forming a “peace club”, which would involve several countries to mediate a peaceful solution to the Russian invasion. The idea even had the support of French President Emmanuel Macron.

But, despite having launched the idea, Lula has never objectively pronounced on the key point that has thwarted all attempts to mediate peace in Ukraine. The peace proposal defended by Zelensky and supported by the West is based on the premise of the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the invaded Ukrainian territory. Russia, on the other hand, wants a ceasefire that consolidates the current borders without withdrawing troops. That would mean Ukraine would have to give up part of four of its provinces and the Crimean peninsula.

This Tuesday (21), Putin supported a Chinese peace proposal presented last week by Xi Jinping. Despite trying to achieve an end to hostilities, this proposal favors Russia by not requesting the withdrawal of Kremlin troops from invaded territory in Ukraine. The West reckons that such a ceasefire would only give Russia more time to prepare new armed offensives in the future.