Lula base has fire test with framework and MPs – 05/20/2023 – Power

Almost four months after the beginning of the legislative year in Congress, the Lula government (PT) will face in the next two weeks a series of agendas that represent the first relevant test of its base in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Senate.

Among other points, the first important provisional measures issued by Lula will be voted on —seven of them need to be analyzed by June 1st so as not to lose effect— and the new fiscal framework proposed by the Planalto and already modified by the rapporteur, Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA). , with voting scheduled for this Wednesday (24).

The shock of reality comes after a significant victory in the framework’s urgency requirement, when 367 deputies agreed to speed up the project’s processing, preventing it from going through committees in the Chamber and allowing it to be evaluated directly in the plenary.

The comfortable score —there were only 102 contrary votes— led one wing of the government to propagate the solidity of the base gained from the distribution of amendments, positions and ministries to center-right parties such as União Brasil, PSD and MDB.

The advantage, however, should remain limited to economic reforms that please the market and the center, evaluate allies. What is considered a setback by Congress will not work, as said by the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL).

The first message was given in the House on May 3 with the vote on the draft legislative decree that stopped part of the changes in sanitation made by the PT administration.

With the expectation that the scenario would repeat itself in the Senate, the government intensified articulation with senators to try to maintain some changes, leaving in the background the previous idea of ​​editing a provisional measure or bill on the subject.

Earlier on the same day, the government had issued another decree resuming the requirement that tourists from the US, Australia, Canada and Japan present a visa to enter the country.

The measure caused new dissatisfaction in Congress and even within the government, due to the negative impact it could have on tourism. A new project was presented to suspend the text and, according to parliamentarians, it should have the same negative result for the government.

In addition, by June 1st, provisional measures must be voted on in the Chamber and Senate, which include the backbone of the organization envisaged by Lula for his third term.

The president took decisions that angered some sectors, especially agriculture, after transferring Conab (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento) from the Ministry of Agriculture to the Ministry of Agrarian Development.

With the negative repercussions, the government itself has already surrendered to the need to sew an agreement for the configuration of the Ministry of Agrarian Development, commanded by PT Paulo Teixeira.

Centrão parliamentarians, especially ruralists, are opposed to maintaining the entire structure of Conab linked to Teixeira’s portfolio.

They argue that the government could privilege the MST (Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra) in the acquisition of food for the formation of regulatory stocks. Therefore, they argue that this competence should return to the Ministry of Agriculture.

Under strong pressure in Congress, the government is offering shared management by Conab.

The ruralists also claim that the rural environmental register should not be under the responsibility of the Ministry of the Environment, but that it should also be managed by Agriculture.

Another point under debate within the government is the fate of the ANA (National Water Agency), responsible for implementing the National Water Resources Policy. Today, it is subordinated to the Ministry of the Environment. There is pressure in Congress for it to be reincorporated into the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development, headed by Waldez Góes.

Parliamentarians take for granted the restructuring of Funasa (National Health Foundation) by the National Congress. However, government supporters claim that the extinction is irreversible and that it would be impossible to reconstitute it, not least because its staff were transferred to other ministries.

Other agendas should also require an effort to articulate with Congress to avoid defeats in issues dear to the government.

In response to the decision of the STF (Federal Supreme Court) to mark the judgment on the time frame in the demarcation of indigenous lands, Lira signaled that it would guide the urgency of a project that deals with the subject and that is criticized by environmentalists.

According to the thesis, indigenous people who were not on their lands on October 5, 1988 —the date of promulgation of the Constitution— would no longer have rights over them, even though there are anthropological opinions demonstrating that they belonged to their ancestors. The text has the support of ruralists and the opposition, which, together, could be enough to approve the urgency.

In another area, the government has not been able to face an issue that it considers crucial, especially after the January 8 attacks: the regulation of big techs.

After a narrow victory in the emergency vote (238 votes to 192), the government has not been able to get support to approve the project that regulates social networks and imposes sanctions on platforms that fail to comply with content moderation rules.

The proposal was sliced ​​up to try to make approval feasible, separating excerpts on copyright and remuneration for journalistic content from the main project that deals with the regulation of companies. Still, resistance remains.

In the midst of this adverse scenario, the government is preparing to face wear and tear in a CPI that will target the MST, one of its main allies. The composition of the collegiate is already a preview of what the Lula administration can expect for the next 120 days – with the possibility of an extension for another 60.

The rapporteur will be Ricardo Salles (PL-SP), former Minister of the Environment in the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government and one of the main anti-PT supporters in Congress.

Lula has a leftist base that amounts to only about a quarter of the seats in Congress. For this reason, he has distributed ministries to center and right-wing parties and seeks retail support, with the sharing of amendments and positions. At this point, there is pressure from Lira and its allies to maintain the management of these transfers, as a way to have better results in obtaining support.