Lula and Bolsonaro bet on polarization and test rejections – 12/17/2023 – Power

President Lula (PT) and former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) are betting on a repeat of the polarization of the last national election in the 2024 municipal elections.

To increase the number of city halls controlled by allies, the two focus on cities where disputes have a chance of going to a second round. Both Lula and Bolsonaro have already indicated that they intend to travel to municipalities with these characteristics and act as canvassers for competitive candidacies.

With this, they will test their ability to articulate and, at the same time, they must put their rejections to the test.

Lula has already acted as an electoral campaigner in São Paulo this weekend for the pre-candidacy of federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), placed on the government’s platform to launch a housing project.

Declared ineligible by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) until 2030, Bolsonaro was in Curitiba together with his wife, Michelle, who intensified political agendas in recent months.

The assessment that polarization should guide races for mayors and city councils in 2024 was exposed by Lula himself to an audience of activists and pre-candidates, at a PT event on December 8th.

“I honestly think that this election will happen, it will be again, Lula and Bolsonaro competing in these elections in the municipalities,” he said.

On that occasion, Lula also indicated to his supporters the need to get closer to important sectors of society, currently aligned with Bolsonarism. He cited evangelicals, who make up almost a third of the electorate.

“We have to learn to talk to these people. They are hard-working people, good people, people who are often grateful to the church for taking their husband away from cachaça to take care of the family,” he stated.

In the latest Datafolha survey, at the beginning of this month, PT members’ disapproval of this part of society reached 38%, compared to 28% among Catholics.

The survey showed a division in the country regarding Lula’s administration: 38% approve of the government, 30% disapprove of it and 30% evaluate it as regular. At the end of his first year as president, Bolsonaro had a 30% approval rating, 36% disapproval rating and a 32% regular rating.

At the PT event, Lula also took the opportunity to ask for engagement from PT members and their ministers in the elections.

The party has already created a map that lists priority cities, focusing on those with more than 100,000 voters.

PT leaders hope to have a relevant presence in most cities, but have admitted to giving up on launching their own candidates to create competitive candidacies with allies.

Bolsonaro has repeated to his allies the same assessment as Lula, that the municipal election will be polarized.

The former president wants the party to prioritize its own candidacies, especially in cities with more than 200 thousand inhabitants.

PL members count on the former president’s good vote in these places and believe that he continues to have high levels of supporters. For next year, Valdemar Costa Neto, president of the party, launched the ambitious goal of conquering a thousand city halls, with Bolsonaro as the main electoral leader.

The expectation is also that former first lady Michelle, current president of PL Mulher, will be able to expand the membership of women and, thus, launch candidates identified with the conservative agenda.

The biggest problem for both political leaders, however, will be precisely the difficulty in gaining close allies in the dispute for the largest city halls in the country.

President Lula’s party intends to launch a PT candidate in at least 12 capitals.

But, in the main urban centers, such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, in addition to Recife, the PT will have to be content with the vice position and embrace candidates from other parties.

In São Paulo, the PT will nominate Boulos’ vice president. The current negotiation is to attract Marta Suplicy back to the party to compete on the ticket with the PSOL deputy.

Lula intends to personally engage in Boulos’ campaign, which should include a series of trips to São Paulo, like this weekend.

Bolsonaro is also experiencing a similar situation in the capital of São Paulo and may have to accept pragmatic strategies imposed by the PL leadership.

The current mayor, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), is still working to have Bolsonaro’s support or at least avoid his opposition. The former president, in turn, does not hide his sympathy for former minister and federal deputy Ricardo Salles (PL), who faces resistance from the party’s leadership.

Given this, Nunes is negotiating to welcome a running mate close to Bolsonaro to attract right-wing voters. In the ideal scenario articulated by those around him, he would also gain the support of the state governor, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).

In Rio de Janeiro, the tendency is for the PT to support the current mayor, Eduardo Paes (PSD), who strongly opposed the Bolsonaro government and is trying to attract Lula’s party to guarantee votes from the left.

Bolsonaro, in turn, intends to launch federal deputy Alexandre Ramagem (PL-RJ), who is very close to the family and was head of Abin (Brazilian Intelligence Agency) during his government.

In other cities, however, the former president should not be able to impose his will.

“For us to grow, we have to give up. So, sometimes I swallow Valdemar’s candidate and, later, he swallows one of my candidates,” said Bolsonaro at the end of November.

And he continued: “Valdemar says that I run the party. I wish it were true, but the final word is his.”

The former president’s statements highlighted the ongoing disputes behind the scenes. In João Pessoa, for example, Bolsonaro managed to impose the candidacy of former Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga, but only after causing an internal fracture in the party, which had a preference for Cabo Gilberto or Nilvan Ferreira.

There are also differences in Recife. Bolsonaro defends the candidacy of former Tourism Minister Gilson Machado, but deputy André Ferreira (PL-PE) intends to contest the elections.