Lira is a favorite to be elected mayor and this will affect Lula

The mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has broad favoritism to be re-elected as head of the House, in the election scheduled for next Wednesday (February 1st). Today he is stronger than when he took office two years ago. Allies say that Lira can win the dispute with up to 90% of the votes of the 513 deputies. And this strength, if confirmed, should have effects: the Chamber may be even more independent in relation to the government than it was in the management of Jair Bolsonaro (PL); and Lira will have the power to decisively influence the administration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

Lira’s power comes from her relationship with the deputies. He is someone who has always served parliamentarians “in retail”, including in individual meetings with colleagues. This is different from what most of his predecessors in the Chamber presidency did, who assisted parliamentarians “wholesale”, through meetings with party leaders, and without individual conversations. The attention given to his peers strengthened Lira, especially among the so-called “low clergy” deputies.

For his performance and skill behind the scenes, Lira was nicknamed “Cunha 2.0” in the Chamber – in an allusion to the strength that former deputy Eduardo Cunha (RJ) had as president of the House. But currently Lira is even seen as stronger than Cunha – who was responsible for opening the impeachment process of former president Dilma Rousseff (PT).

Lira’s strength meant that his management marked the apex of the Chamber’s political protagonism. Many would refer to Lira as Bolsonaro’s informal “prime minister”. It was during his administration, for example, that deputies began to control a significant portion of the federal budget through rapporteur amendments – the secret budget, extinguished at the end of last year by the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

Those closest to Lira claim that he has his own “base” with almost 30% of the deputies. It is his so-called “shock troops”, which can follow his guidelines and cause problems for any government, imposing a legislative agenda contrary to that of the President of the Republic. “Arthur is cold, he is calculating. He has the machine in his hand, and that took him to 150 votes [de deputados] only his. He is more powerful and skillful than Eduardo Cunha and [Rodrigo] Maya [seu antecessor no comando da Casa]”, says an ally. Others claim that Lira’s base reaches 200 of the 513 deputies.

Lira’s likely re-election tends to reinforce this condition of independence of parliamentarians in relation to the federal government. “Deputies are more and more the owners of their agendas. We are no longer a pushover from the Executive, like in the past. And Arthur is someone who preserves that”, says an ally of the President of the Chamber.

Federal deputy Darci de Matos (PSD-SC), deputy leader of the majority in the Chamber, praises Lira and says that he has the support of the “large majority” of deputies. “He knows the economic agenda like no one else. He dominates the Chamber. He is a man of his word, firm. He will ensure that the Chamber continues with its independence from the Executive, with personality. But he will have a normal and good republican relationship with the government,” he says.

What are the risks of re-election for Lula

Darci de Matos says that Lira has respect even from the left, and believes that this will help build a good relationship with Lula. “So much so that the left will support him [na disputa pela reeleição]”, he states.

But Lira’s reinforced power could pose challenges to Lula that did not exist in the relationship with former President Jair Bolsonaro. For Matos, the re-election of the president of the Chamber will also be important to preserve the “checks and balances” in a relationship with a left-wing government. “A Parliament essentially more from the center, with a president from the center, experienced, makes it possible for people to seek rationality”, he says.

Another risk is the possibility of PT Lula not appointing Lira’s nominees for important positions in the government. “Lira asked for 200 positions for his base. Because he also knows that, if he doesn’t grant them, the votes he has will disappear”, says an ally of the mayor. To accommodate allies, Lira asked Lula for positions in the ministries of Mines and Energy, Planning, Health and National Integration, as well as control of state-owned companies such as the Development Company of the São Francisco and Parnaíba Valleys (Codevasf).

But Lira’s allies believe that he and Lula will have at least a pragmatic coexistence. “Arthur is a businessman. If you sit down with him and get it right, then everything will be fine”, says a supporter of the president of the Chamber. Another warns the president-elect: “If Lula thinks he’s going to be bullied, forget it. It’s better to make a bad deal with Arthur than try to trick him.”

Deputy Darci de Matos says he does not believe that Lula and Lira will have a conflicted relationship like that between Dilma and Eduardo Cunha. “The dialogue between them is good and President Arthur has a different personality. Cunha knew the regiment a lot [da Câmara], but he was an impulsive man with a different behavior. Lira is quiet. Arthur held back nearly 100 requests for Bolsonaro’s impeachment. Arthur is a guy who is rational. In addition, Arthur worked together with all of us in the leadership to pass the PEC [fura-teto, que foi o primeiro grande desafio de Lula no Congresso]”, he states.

President Lula knows Lira’s strength, and exactly for this reason the PT announced support for his reelection. Lula also wants to avoid repeating what happened in 2015 – when Eduardo Cunha, at the time affiliated with the MDB, was elected president of the Chamber with 267 votes, with the petista Arlindo Chinaglia (SP) as an opponent banked by the government of then president Dilma. Cunha never hid his annoyance with Dilma’s position, and was responsible for opening her impeachment process.

Re-election may take effect even after Lira leaves the Chamber command

Lira’s likely loose re-election could also have effects in the second half of Lula’s government. The current president of the House will command it, if the victory is confirmed, until February 2025. middle of a legislature is prohibited. But Lira already articulates today who will succeed him as mayor in 2025.

“Arthur is already negotiating the succession in two years. Who wants to be [presidente da Câmara] and he’s big enough for the position, he’s going to have to match him now to have his support in two years”, says an allied deputy.

Federal deputy Marcos Pereira (Republicanos-SP), national president of the party, is today the most quoted name to succeed Lira in the group of the current president of the Chamber. Pereira even rehearsed a candidacy in 2023, but withdrew to negotiate Lira’s support for the Board of Directors elections in 2025.

Because he has good influence with the “lower clergy” deputies, some say that Pereira has a good chance of obtaining Lira’s political capital. “Marcos Pereira has a history and the size [para o cargo]. He’s a guy who can’t be discarded,” says a supporter. “And Lira is a guy who sticks to what he promised. If the two hit each other, the chances of him being Arthur’s candidate [em 2025] are big.”

Deputies Baleia Rossi (MDB-SP) and Luciano Bivar (União Brasil-PE) are other names that are trying to secure themselves to command the Chamber in 2025. But currently they do not have the support of the lower clergy and the base of Lira.

The PL, which is the largest party in the Chamber, can also try to make Lira’s successor. But one deputy says he believes that is unlikely today. “The party’s problem is unity. [na nova legislatura], but divided. And it has no leadership,” she says.

As for the possibility of Lira’s group supporting a candidate from the left, it is also seen today as remote.