Judges see Bolsonaro ineligible and are divided on impacts – 06/16/2023 – Power

Members of the STF (Superior Federal Court) and superior courts believe that the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) will make former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) ineligible in the trial scheduled for next Thursday (22). The diagnosis is that there is an unfavorable trend towards the former representative.

The political consequences of Bolsonaro’s eventual disqualification, however, divide opinions in the country’s main courts.

There is a current that understands that it is bad to remove the former representative from the game at this moment because the decision would anticipate the 2026 presidential race and would give political strength to an heir of Bolsonarism, who would be the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).

Bolsonaro’s former minister, Tarcísio is the ex-president’s ally with the most prominent position in the country. He is seen as a possible candidate for the Planalto in the next election, although he denies the intention.

Bolsonaro led a government marked by conflicts with the judiciary and threats of disrespect for the election results. Furthermore, supporters of the former president remained mobilized against Lula’s (PT) victory for weeks and were the protagonists of the January 8 coup attacks.

Material analyzed on the seized cell phone of former aide-de-camp Mauro Cid also shows that coup theories circulated around the former president. There was a document on the device with a kind of script for a coup d’état, as well as conversations with officials who defended the Cid that Bolsonaro launched a military intervention.

If there are ministers of higher courts apprehensive about the possible strengthening of Bolsonarism at the hands of Tarcísio, a different reading has gained strength behind the scenes, especially after the inauguration of two ministers in the TSE very close to the president of the court, Alexandre de Moraes —the main executioner of Bolsonaristas in the Supreme Court.

Tarcísio’s empowerment is well regarded by the Supreme Court and the TSE. He has a good relationship with members of the Judiciary leadership and is considered someone who has distanced himself from the ally’s offensive against the STF and the TSE. Therefore, although close to Bolsonaro, he is not seen as a risk to institutions.

The positive assessment of Tarcísio’s posture does not occur by chance. Even when he was Bolsonaro’s minister, he did not endorse the former president’s most bellicose statements against ministers of the judiciary.

On the contrary. The praise he paid the Supreme Court behind the scenes became clearer after he was elected governor, taking on a life of its own in politics.

His proximity to Moraes, the minister responsible for investigating Bolsonaro, was exposed in the inauguration of two new TSE ministers at the end of May. Tarcísio was invited by the magistrate to the ceremony. There, they stayed, together with Minister Gilmar Mendes, talking for more than 30 minutes in a public environment.

Before that, in December, when Bolsonaro had already lost the election, Tarcísio was seen laughing with Moraes at a ceremony at the STJ (Superior Court of Justice). At the same time, he publicly praised Minister Luís Roberto Barroso, whom the former president has already cursed.

“I’m not going to do what we did wrong in the federal government of tensioning with Powers”, said Tarcísio at the time.

“We are going to talk to ministers of the STF. And Barroso is a very prepared, reasonable minister. Whenever I, as a minister [da Infraestrutura], I needed him, he helped the ministry. He always voted in favor of our demands. But ‘the guys’ picked on me.”

The judges’ assessment is that Moraes will be fundamental for the final result of the trial. The minister is active behind the scenes and usually has a lot of influence on the direction that important discussions take in TSE sessions.

This was further reinforced with the inauguration of ministers André Ramos Tavares and Floriano Marques. Both took seats on the electoral court due to Moraes’ articulations and have a close relationship with him.

The minister must remain an unavoidable figure for the next government — whoever is elected. That’s because, if he follows the traditional rite, which usually happens, he should become president of the STF at the end of 2027, the first year of the next president’s term.

Thus, the future head of the Executive will have to live with Moraes as head of the Supreme for two years.

The rapporteur of the action that could lead to Bolsonaro’s ineligibility is another factor that has weighed in the assessment that the tendency is for the loss of political rights of the former representative.

Minister Benedito Gonçalves, who also belongs to the STJ, has a close relationship with President Lula and is working to be nominated for the Supreme Court in the vacancy of Rosa Weber, which will open in October.

He will be the first to vote and say whether the action that analyzes whether the meeting promoted by Bolsonaro with ambassadors at the Palácio da Alvorada, in July last year, constitutes abuse of political power. At the time, the then president made accusations against the electoral system without presenting evidence.

The process was initiated from a representation sent to the court by the PDT, the party that makes up Lula’s support base. If he is declared ineligible, Bolsonaro, 68, will not be able to run for eight years – a period that counts from the 2022 election.

Benedito Gonçalves presented a report with all the measures adopted in the context of the electoral investigation, including witness statements.

He also mentioned the manifestation of the PGE (Electoral Attorney General’s Office), which opined for the partial validity of the action, in order to declare Bolsonaro’s ineligibility due to abuse of political power and misuse of the media.

The Attorney’s Office stated that distortions and untruths repeated by the former president at the meeting and the insinuations that the Electoral Justice would act to benefit the opposing candidate unduly influenced part of the electorate to distrust the electoral system.

According to the opinion, the environment resulted in violent consequences, of nonconformity with the results of the elections, added to false allegations that the election had been illegitimate and fraudulent.