Inflation: IPCA-15 is 0.33% in November, says IBGE – 11/28/2023 – Market

Pressured by food, inflation measured by the IPCA-15 (Extended National Consumer Price Index 15) accelerated to 0.33% in November, after changing 0.21% in October.

This is what data released this Tuesday (28) by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) indicates. The new result was above the median projections of analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency, which was an increase of 0.29%.

In the 12-month period, the IPCA-15 slowed down, reaching 4.84% by November, IBGE reported. On this basis of comparison, the increase was 5.05% until October.

IPCA-15 prices are collected between the second half of the previous month and the first half of the reference month of publication. In this case, October and November, respectively.

As it is released earlier, the IPCA-15 signals a trend for prices in the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index), also calculated by IBGE.

The IPCA is considered Brazil’s official inflation index. It serves as a reference for the BC (Central Bank) target regime.

IPCA prices are collected throughout the reference month of the survey. Therefore, the November result is not yet finalized. It will be published by IBGE on December 12th.

The center of the inflation target pursued by the BC is 3.25% in 2023. The tolerance is 1.5 percentage points higher (4.75%) or lower (1.75%).

In other words, the target will be met if the IPCA stays within this range until December. Inflation exceeded the reference measure in 2021 and 2022.

On average, financial market analysts project an IPCA of 4.53% in 2023, according to the most recent edition of the Focus bulletin, released by the BC on Monday (27). This means that the forecast is below this year’s target ceiling (4.75%).